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Indonesia’s wildfires are not rising steadily every year. A nationwide Sentinel-2 study found sharp peaks in 2019 and 2023, low activity in 2021–2022, and an intermediate 2024; the peak years coincided with El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Dry weather helps fires spread, while drained peatlands can make them harder to contain and more severe. But “extreme” can mean more land burned, greater severity, more smoke, or larger losses—and those measures do not always move together.

What does “more extreme” mean for a wildfire?

There is no single measure of how extreme a fire season is. Burned area records how much land burned. Burn severity describes the degree of ecological change or damage within a burn scar. Fire intensity concerns the energy released as a fire burns. Smoke exposure and economic losses capture other consequences. Hotspot detections, meanwhile, are satellite observations of heat—not a count of separate fires or a direct measure of hectares burned.

Those measures can diverge. A season may burn less land yet include more severe burning in the areas affected. That distinction matters in Indonesia, where peat fires can smolder below ground and where weather, land condition, ignition, and suppression all shape outcomes.

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Do Indonesia’s fires show a steady upward trend?

No. A 2025 nationwide study using Sentinel-2 data found pronounced year-to-year swings over 2019–2024, rather than an uninterrupted annual rise. Its estimates put 2019 and 2023 at the high points, 2021–2022 at low activity, and 2024 between those peaks and troughs. The study reports monthly fire peaks in September and October. Its burned-area estimates are one particular satellite-based series, not the only official or scientific account of fire extent.

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Year Sentinel-2 burned-area estimate MODIS MCD64A1 estimate
2019 2.64 million hectares 2.09 million hectares
2023 1.70 million hectares 1.11 million hectares
2024 0.49 million hectares 0.15 million hectares

All values in the table are the PLOS ONE authors’ estimates for the same years, reported in their 2025 study, “Nationwide monthly burned area monitoring in Indonesia using Sentinel-2.” The authors say MCD64A1’s coarser spatial resolution and difficulty detecting small fires account for its consistently lower estimates; the two series should not be treated as interchangeable.

For the full 2019–2024 window, the same study reports 5.62 million hectares of total area burned at least once. Its accounting separately reports 4.04 million hectares actually burned, including repeat burning: 2.92 million hectares burned once and 1.12 million burned repeatedly. These are the paper’s distinct definitions and totals, not figures to add together or relabel as one measure.

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Why did 2019 and 2023 stand out?

The Sentinel-2 study links the major peaks to El Niño, measured by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It reports that in 2019 the IOD reached +1.8°C and ONI reached +0.5°C; in 2023, ONI was above +1.5°C from September through December and IOD reached +1.5°C. The study also finds that neutral-to-negative phases during 2020–2022 coincided with low fire activity.

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This is an association between climate conditions and fire activity, not proof that climate anomalies alone caused each fire or explain every year’s total. In positive IOD and El Niño conditions, reduced convection and rainfall can leave fuels warmer and drier, increase their flammability, and extend the period when fires can burn. La Niña and negative IOD phases tend to bring more rainfall and humidity. Ignitions, land management, and the ability to suppress fires still matter.

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Why do peatlands make a difference?

Peat soils store organic material that can burn below the surface. When peatlands are drained, they dry out and become more vulnerable to fire; underground burning can persist and be difficult to extinguish. Indonesia’s 2022 forest reference level submission to the UNFCCC states that “Prolonged dry seasons boosted by El Nino increase the risk and intensity of fires, particularly in drained peatlands.” That is a statement about risk and intensity, not a claim that all Indonesian fires occur on peat.

In fact, the same government submission says most mapped fires in 2000–2020 were on mineral soils and non-forest cover. It reports the Ministry of Environment and Forestry’s two largest mapped burned areas during that period as 3.9 million hectares in 2006 and 2.6 million hectares in 2015. The mapping used Landsat and Sentinel imagery, hotspot and ground-truthing data, and burn-scar interpretation. The figures show that very large seasons predate the recent study window; they are not directly interchangeable with Sentinel-2 study estimates.

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A Kalimantan peatland study offers a useful warning against using area burned as a stand-in for severity. Its authors report that, averaged across Kalimantan, burn severity was 12.8% greater in 2015–2021 than in the preceding equal-length periods, while average burned peat area was 28.7% lower. The comparison is regional, not national. The figures are reported in a search-result excerpt of the study, and its exact methods, severity definition, and uncertainty intervals are not established here; read the percentage comparison with that limitation in mind. Kalimantan peatland fire severity study.

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Why do different reports give different burned-area totals?

Satellite products and government updates can use different imagery, mapping methods, geographic scopes, and reporting windows. A higher-resolution burned-area map may detect small burn scars that a coarser product misses. An administrative estimate may use a different method again. These figures can each be valid for their stated purpose without forming one continuous, directly comparable time series.

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For example, KLHK’s 11 October 2024 update reports 283,620.51 hectares burned from January through September 2024. Of that, it attributes 25,193.57 hectares to peat and 258,426.94 hectares to mineral soils; it also reports 252,320.33 hectares on non-forest land cover and 31,300.18 hectares on forest cover. The release separately counts 3,163 high-confidence Terra/Aqua hotspots through 10 October 2024, compared with 7,786 for the same period in 2023. Those are hotspot detections, not separate-fire counts or burned-area totals. The area figure is a nine-month administrative update, while the hotspot comparison runs through October; neither should be substituted for the PLOS study’s full-year Sentinel-2 estimates. KLHK’s 2024 fire update.

A later BNPB evaluation release gives a different comparison: 376,805 hectares for 2024 and 213,984 hectares for 2025. The cited passage does not state the mapping method, so those figures should be attributed to BNPB rather than merged with the KLHK or Sentinel-2 series. BNPB also reports state losses of 75 trillion rupiah in 2019 and 6.7 trillion rupiah in 2025. These are the agency’s reported loss figures, not a comparable measurement of fire severity or an independent estimate. BNPB’s 2025 fire-season evaluation.

What can the evidence say about fire response?

Government releases describe suppression and prevention activity, but the figures available here do not isolate how much those measures changed annual burned area or severity compared with the effects of weather and land use. In BNPB’s 2025 release, agency chief Suharyanto said Indonesia deployed 12 patrol helicopters and 18 water-bombing helicopters that year, compared with 40 units in 2023–2024. That is a reported deployment comparison, not evidence by itself that helicopter numbers caused the difference in fire totals.

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To judge any claim that a season got worse—or that a response made it better—check the metric, geographic scope, dates, land type, climate conditions, and mapping method together. A national burned-area estimate, a Kalimantan severity comparison, and a hotspot count answer different questions.

What is the most accurate way to describe the trend?

Indonesia’s recent fire record shows climate-linked peaks, not a smooth climb in nationwide burned area every year. El Niño and positive IOD conditions can create hot, dry fire weather, and drained peatlands can raise the risk of persistent or severe burning. Yet area, severity, smoke, and losses are separate measures, and satellite and agency totals differ by method and reporting period. Claims that Indonesian wildfires are uniformly becoming more extreme need to specify which measure, place, and period they mean.

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