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The world cannot switch off El Niño, but it can reduce the damage it causes. The strongest practical ideas are to turn seasonal forecasts into local plans, release money and supplies before hazards peak, and coordinate decisions about food, water, farms and infrastructure. A more radical proposal—deliberately brightening marine clouds to influence climate patterns—has shown effects in computer simulations, not in a proven real-world operation.
Can the world stop El Niño?
No established approach can stop or reliably control El Niño. It is a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific, part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It shifts the odds of certain temperature and rainfall patterns; it does not dictate the same weather or damage in every country, or even in every El Niño event. The practical goal is to reduce exposure and protect people whose livelihoods, food supplies or essential services are at risk.
That distinction matters: a forecast is not a prediction that every place will experience drought, flooding or crop failure. Local impacts also depend on exposure, preparedness and existing conditions such as poverty, food insecurity, conflict, displacement and limited institutional capacity. UNDRR Special Representative Kamal Kishore framed the challenge this way: “The real question is not simply whether a strong El Niño will occur. The important question is whether our disaster risk governance systems are prepared to manage its consequences.”
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In its 3 September 2026 update, the World Meteorological Organization said El Niño was established and expected to intensify, with near-100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. UNDRR also reported a WMO forecast of a 2.9°C seasonal-average sea-surface-temperature anomaly for August–October 2026. That figure is a forecast for that season, not a measurement of impacts everywhere or a timeless description of El Niño.
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Seasonal lead time makes early decisions possible, but forecasts remain probabilistic. Their value depends on whether institutions can connect an outlook to a decision: which communities need support, what supplies to move, and when funding should be released.
Make warnings actionable at every timescale
UNDRR recommends using different forecast horizons for different decisions, and translating hazard information into impact-based forecasts that explain what the expected conditions could mean for people and services.
| Forecast horizon | Best use | Example of a decision |
|---|---|---|
| Seasonal | Strategy and finance | Set contingency plans and fund readiness in areas facing elevated drought or flood risk. |
| Sub-seasonal | Preparedness and pre-positioning | Move supplies closer to at-risk communities and prepare local response teams. |
| Short-range | Immediate operations | Time field actions and urgent communications to near-term weather conditions. |
Warning systems need to reach people in forms they can use, not merely produce a forecast for officials. The UN’s Early Warnings for All initiative aims to protect everyone with multi-hazard warning systems by the end of 2027. Its page reported 119 countries covered in 2025, a 113% increase since 2015, while noting that coverage still needs to expand. Those statistics describe multi-hazard systems, not an El Niño-specific forecast network.
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Release money and support before a crisis peaks
Anticipatory action means agreeing in advance what forecast or risk thresholds will trigger help, then making funding and delivery arrangements capable of acting before losses escalate. FAO and WFP’s 18 June 2026 appeal sought $202 million to protect nearly 9 million people across 22 priority countries, with a stated target of 8.8 million. The agencies said they were positioned to support 1.2 million people; an additional $167 million would enable them to expand support to a further 7.6 million. These are appeal and planned-capacity figures, not confirmation that the money was raised or that everyone was reached.
FAO and WFP cited an estimate that “Every dollar invested in anticipatory response can result in up to $7 in avoided losses and response costs.” It is an agency-attributed estimate, with “up to” important: it is not a guaranteed return for every project or location.
Funding triggers matter because relief delivered after a household has lost crops, livestock or income may arrive too late to prevent distress sales or other damaging choices. WFP Acting Executive Director Carl Skau said: “With El Niño on the horizon, we have a narrow window to act so families are not forced into impossible choices later.”
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Match food, water and livelihood measures to local hazards
FAO and WFP’s appeal describes a portfolio of possible early actions, rather than a single product or intervention suited to every place. Selection should follow local forecasts, farming practices, water conditions and community priorities.
- Protect household consumption: provide cash assistance where markets can supply the goods people need.
- Protect agricultural production: offer drought-tolerant or flood-resistant seeds when the expected hazard and local growing conditions make them suitable, alongside agricultural advisories.
- Reduce water stress: support water harvesting and storage where these fit local needs and water systems.
- Reduce flood losses: prepare flood-protection infrastructure and communicate warnings early enough for communities to act.
- Protect livestock: take locally appropriate steps to safeguard animals and the livelihoods that depend on them.
These actions work best when public agencies, technical partners, regional bodies, local organizations and affected communities coordinate. Rainfall deficits can strain crops, drinking-water supplies and hydropower at the same time, creating trade-offs—for example, between water allocated to farms and water reserved for households or electricity generation. UNDRR therefore emphasizes multi-sector planning as well as protecting vulnerable people and enabling local action.
Plan for regional differences, not one global El Niño scenario
A 15 June 2026 analysis by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), based on seasonal forecasts and scenario modeling, highlighted elevated drought risks in Australia, Southeast Asia, southern Africa and Central America. It also identified similar risks in the Sahel and Indian subcontinent as El Niño intensified. The analysis projected increased rainfall in East Africa, parts of Central and East Asia, and areas of North and South America. More rain is not automatically beneficial: on degraded or saturated soils, excess rainfall can contribute to erosion, nutrient loss and waterlogging.
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The JRC projected heat building across the tropics and subtropics from September, peaking between December 2026 and February 2027 and persisting into spring 2027. These are June 2026 projections, not observed outcomes. Its food-price analysis also varied by crop and scenario; the most extreme modeled scenario went beyond historical precedent. Forecasts can help prioritize preparation, but they do not establish a single, certain outcome for a region or commodity.
Existing crises shape how severe a weather hazard becomes. JRC noted that displacement linked to drought is difficult to measure, while UNDRR highlighted the way climate hazards can compound conflict, poverty and food insecurity. Local plans therefore need to account for who has limited ability to move, access water, protect assets or recover—not just where a rainfall anomaly is forecast.
Could cloud brightening dampen El Niño?
The most interventionist idea in the evidence is targeted marine cloud brightening, a proposed form of solar geoengineering. A 2024 paper by Wan, Fasullo, Rosenbloom, Chen and Ricke, “Targeted marine cloud brightening can dampen El Niño,” modeled brightening clouds over the southeast Pacific. The authors reported that their simulations reproduced observed cloud changes associated with a 2019–2020 experiment-of-opportunity and produced La Niña-like responses. In simulations of the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 El Niño events, earlier and longer intervention scenarios restored neutral ENSO conditions and dampened impacts.
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This is a modeling result, not proof that an intervention can safely or reliably control a real El Niño. The paper presents the approach as a potential complement to forecasting; it does not establish a global deployment plan, quantified planetary-scale safety, or governance consensus. It is therefore not comparable in readiness to early warnings, funding triggers or locally tailored preparedness, which are grounded in operational planning and institutional guidance.
What separates a credible plan from a bold promise?
The most useful proposals connect forecast information to a funded, locally workable action and explain who is responsible for carrying it out. For an idea that would deliberately alter climate conditions, the evidence threshold must be higher still: simulations alone cannot settle questions of real-world efficacy, safety or governance. The near-term opportunity lies in acting on forecast lead time without mistaking a probability for certainty—or treating a modeled climate intervention as a tested solution.
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