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AI and automation can make some work faster and better, help scientists make discoveries, and improve forecasting. They can also displace workers, widen inequality, expose people to surveillance and discrimination, and amplify security and information threats. The outcome is not predetermined: it depends on which tasks machines take on, who controls the technology, and how employers and governments manage the transition.

What does “the ascent of the machines” mean?

Here, “machines” means the expanding use of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and automation in workplaces, public services, science and decision-making. These systems do not affect every job or task in the same way. Some automate routine work; others assist people with tasks they still direct and check.

That distinction matters. A job can be exposed to AI without being eliminated: exposure means the work could be affected, either through automation or through tasks being augmented. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in 2024 that almost 40% of global employment was exposed to AI. Its estimates were about 60% in advanced economies, 40% in emerging markets and 26% in low-income countries.

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Where can AI and automation help?

Productivity and work quality

AI can help people complete some tasks more quickly, organize information and support knowledge-intensive work. In an OECD survey reported in 2024, four in five surveyed workers said AI improved their performance at work, and three in five said it increased their enjoyment of work. These are workers’ reported experiences, not a guarantee that every workplace or tool will see the same result.

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Whether productivity gains materialize depends on more than installing software. Employers need suitable tasks, reliable infrastructure, effective implementation and workers with the skills to use and check the tools. If AI produces errors that people must repeatedly correct, or adds oversight work without reducing other tasks, expected gains may not appear.

Scientific progress and better forecasting

The OECD identifies accelerated scientific progress, improved sense-making and better forecasting as potential benefits of AI. Tools that can help researchers analyze information or explore patterns may support discovery; forecasting systems may help organizations interpret complex data. These capabilities can inform decisions, but they do not make uncertain predictions certain or remove the need for expert judgment.

Augmenting workers rather than replacing them

When AI handles parts of a task while a person supplies context, judgment or responsibility, it can complement that worker rather than replace the whole job. Assistance may be particularly useful to less experienced workers in some settings, but the result depends on the task, the system and how people are trained to use it. A role may also change substantially even when it is not eliminated.

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Possible economic growth

Higher productivity could support economic growth and help offset pressures such as population ageing. But growth is a possibility, not an automatic consequence of AI adoption. The gains depend on how broadly useful systems are adopted and whether productivity improvements translate into higher incomes and better outcomes for people.

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What are the main disadvantages and risks?

Job displacement and difficult transitions

When automation reduces the need for human labor on particular tasks, some workers may face fewer hours, changed responsibilities or job loss. The OECD reported in 2024 that occupations at the highest risk of automation accounted for about 27% of employment in OECD countries, drawing on an OECD 2023 estimate. This is a risk classification, not a prediction that 27% of jobs will disappear.

Even where new work emerges, workers may not be able to move into it quickly or easily. Training, geographic mobility, hiring practices and the timing of job losses all affect whether people can benefit from new opportunities. The cited organizations do not provide a single definitive forecast of the net number of jobs AI will create or destroy.

Unequal access and unequal rewards

AI’s benefits may accrue disproportionately to people and organizations with capital, strong digital infrastructure, data and specialized skills. The IMF has warned that complementarity with high-income workers, along with returns to capital, could increase inequality. It has also noted that sufficiently large productivity gains could raise incomes broadly. Which outcome prevails depends on the scale of gains and how they are distributed.

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Differences between countries matter, too. The IMF’s 2024 exposure estimates are higher for advanced economies than for emerging and low-income economies, but exposure is not the same as capacity to benefit. Countries with limited infrastructure or skills may have fewer ways to capture gains, even if fewer jobs are directly exposed.

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Bias, privacy and workplace monitoring

Automated decisions can reproduce or amplify discrimination if the data, design or deployment reflects existing bias. When a system affects hiring, evaluation, access to services or other high-impact outcomes, people need ways to understand and challenge decisions. Collecting extensive worker data also raises privacy concerns, particularly when monitoring is opaque or used beyond its stated purpose.

Security, fraud and information harms

The OECD identifies risks including sophisticated cyberattacks, fraud, manipulation and disinformation. Such harms can erode trust and affect democratic processes as well as individuals and organizations. AI does not create every underlying threat, but it can change the scale or sophistication of some attacks and make false or deceptive material easier to produce.

Concentrated power and critical-system failures

Control over computing resources, data and major platforms can concentrate influence among a relatively small number of organizations. Dependence on widely used systems can also make failures consequential: an error or disruption in a critical system may spread beyond the original user or organization. The OECD includes critical-system incidents and concentration of power among the risks policymakers should address.

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Who benefits, and what determines the balance?

The central trade-off is not simply “machines versus people.” It is whether AI is used mainly to replace human labor or to improve what people can do, and whether productivity gains reach workers and communities as well as owners of capital and technology.

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Question Potential upside Potential downside
Augmentation or displacement? People may complete tasks more effectively with assistance. Automating tasks can reduce demand for some roles or skills.
Productivity or distribution? Efficiency gains could support growth and broader income gains. Rewards may concentrate among high-income workers, capital owners or firms with greater access.
Innovation speed or accountability? Faster development may advance science and useful services. Rapid deployment can outpace safeguards, oversight and clear liability.
Centralized control or broad access? Shared platforms and resources can make capable tools available at scale. Control of data, computing resources and platforms can concentrate power.
Short-term disruption or long-term growth? Productivity gains could support growth over time. Workers and communities may bear transition costs before gains arrive, or never share them.

These outcomes remain uncertain and vary by sector, workplace and policy. The IMF’s 2024 assessment describes the possibility that AI could jumpstart productivity and raise incomes, while also warning that it could replace jobs and deepen inequality. It is more accurate to treat these as competing scenarios than to promise either a jobs boom or mass unemployment.

How can employers and policymakers reduce the risks?

For employers adopting AI

  • Measure actual task outcomes, including quality and time saved, rather than treating adoption itself as proof of productivity.
  • Keep accountable human review for high-impact decisions; define who can challenge or correct an automated result.
  • Protect worker data by limiting collection and use to clear purposes, and explain monitoring practices.
  • Provide training and transition support when automation changes workers’ tasks or roles.
  • Assess systems for security, discrimination and failure risks before deployment and as their use changes.

For policymakers

The OECD’s priorities include clearer liability rules, defined red lines for unacceptable uses, investment in AI safety, risk-management procedures, competition policy, worker support and safeguards against discrimination and manipulation. The aim is to make responsibility and remedies clearer without assuming that every application carries the same level of risk.

Managing the transition also means paying attention to who can access useful tools and training, who bears the costs when work changes, and whether competition allows the benefits of innovation to spread. The OECD’s 2024 policy assessment says the swift evolution of AI calls for policymakers to consider and proactively manage AI-driven change.

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Verdict: machines can raise capability, but outcomes are a choice

AI and automation offer real potential to improve work, support science and lift productivity, but none of those benefits guarantees secure jobs or broadly shared prosperity. The advantages are most likely to matter when systems complement people, organizations measure their effects, and workers have a voice and support through change. Without accountability, safeguards and attention to distribution, the same technologies can intensify displacement, inequality and harm.

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