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Supply-chain risk has become a standing business condition rather than a one-off disruption. Gallagher’s 2026 business-owner survey found that 63% of respondents were very or extremely concerned about disruptions affecting their business in the coming year. However, the evidence comes from surveys taken at different times and in different contexts, so it should be read as a set of warning signals—not a single forecast for every industry or country.
What the latest business-owner survey shows
Gallagher collected responses from 29 January to 10 February 2026. In its 2026 Business Owners Survey, 63% said they were very or extremely concerned about supply-chain disruptions affecting their business during the following year.
Gallagher’s Jennifer Marshall described the result this way: “Supply chain concerns remain top of mind but are no longer viewed as a temporary problem, and rather a baseline business condition.” That is Gallagher’s characterization of its survey, not a statement from an individual respondent.
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Only 61% of surveyed business owners said they had contingency suppliers in place. Gallagher reported that this was down from three in four respondents the year before. A backup supplier does not eliminate exposure, but the decline suggests that concern is not consistently translating into broader supplier coverage.
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Tariffs remain a separate pressure
Tariff effects were still concerning to 88% of respondents, compared with 98% the prior year. Gallagher said its fieldwork ended before major Middle East trade-route effects and temporary import surcharges announced in late February 2026. The figures therefore provide an early-2026 baseline, not a complete measure of the consequences of those later developments.
What UK directors reported about shortages
The Institute of Directors (IoD) offers a narrower, UK-focused view in its 1 May 2026 report, “Director Weekly: IoD data shows that business confidence is up but supply chain concerns are growing”. Directors answered in the context of the Iran conflict.
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| IoD finding | What the denominator means |
|---|---|
| 20% had already experienced shortages | Share of all directors surveyed |
| 32% called shortages significant | Share of the 20% whose organisations had already experienced shortages, not all directors |
| 52% were worried about shortages in coming months | Share of all directors surveyed |
| Fuel or energy: 76% | Category of concern among the group worried about future shortages |
| Components or parts: 35% | Category of concern among that same worried group |
| Industrial materials: 34% | Category of concern among that same worried group |
These percentages cannot be added to Gallagher’s results or treated as a single estimate of businesses at risk. They measure different populations, geographies, questions and collection periods.
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Experienced disruption and anticipated disruption are different signals
The IoD figures distinguish current damage from forward-looking anxiety: one in five directors reported shortages already, while 52% were worried about shortages in the coming months. A company may have functioning deliveries today but still face credible exposure if routes, suppliers, inventories or prices change.
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Critical inputs are concentrated in a few categories
Among directors concerned about future shortages, fuel and energy were the most frequently named category, followed by components or parts and industrial materials. This does not rank every sector’s risk. It shows which inputs were most prominent in this particular UK response group and conflict-related context.
Geopolitical and policy changes can outlast the triggering event
Route disruption, tariffs and temporary surcharges can alter lead times, landed costs and supplier economics even after an immediate crisis eases. The Gallagher timing note is important: later February developments were outside its fieldwork, so businesses should not mistake its percentages for a post-event assessment.
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How to turn concern into continuity planning
UK government guidance on corporate financial distress, updated 17 September 2026, is written for central government departments, agencies and non-departmental public bodies. It is not a legal requirement or universal checklist for private companies, but its governance approach is useful more broadly.
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- Engage suppliers early. Ask about capacity, inventory, alternate sites, transport constraints and their own critical dependencies rather than waiting for a missed delivery.
- Map single points of failure. Identify parts, materials, energy sources, logistics lanes and service partners for which no practical substitute exists.
- Review contingency suppliers. Gallagher’s 61% figure shows that backup coverage is common but not universal. Test whether an alternative supplier is approved, has capacity, meets technical requirements and can deliver within the required timeframe.
- Set trigger levels and owners. Define who acts when inventory, lead time, supplier financial health or route availability crosses a threshold, and record escalation contacts.
- Refresh the plan. Government guidance recommends reviewing current contingency plans and considering updates when concerns remain about a supplier’s ability to maintain services.
A practical way to assess your exposure
Use four separate lenses so that unlike risks are not collapsed into one score:
- Actual versus potential: distinguish shortages, delays or cost increases already affecting operations from scenarios that have not yet occurred.
- Input type: examine energy and fuel, components and parts, industrial materials, transport and essential services separately.
- Preparedness: record whether alternatives exist, whether they have been tested, and how long switching would take.
- Timing and location: attach each assumption to the relevant survey period, market, route and operating region.
This approach helps leadership decide whether the next action is supplier engagement, inventory adjustment, qualification of an alternative source, contract review or a wider continuity exercise.
How to read the evidence without overclaiming
There is no single global percentage for “businesses at risk.” Gallagher’s result is a broad business-owner measure collected in early 2026. The IoD result is UK-specific and tied to directors’ views during the Iran-conflict context. Neither establishes that the same share of firms in every sector, country or supply chain will experience shortages.
The strongest common conclusion is narrower: businesses continue to regard supply disruption as an ongoing operating risk, while preparedness and exposure vary by input, supplier and timing. Treat the published figures as signals for reviewing dependencies—not as a substitute for an organisation-specific risk assessment.
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