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U.S. stocks finished modestly higher on Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026, after Treasury yields surged to reported multi-decade highs and then pulled back. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq each closed up slightly. On Friday, Oct. 2, stocks rallied more broadly as a weaker-than-expected hiring picture eased concerns about inflation and reduced traders’ bets on an October Federal Reserve rate increase.
How stocks closed on Thursday, Oct. 1
The Oct. 1 market session was volatile rather than a straightforward rally. Stocks opened higher following corporate earnings, then turned lower by mid-morning as Treasury yields climbed. Yields later retreated, and all three major U.S. indexes ended the day narrowly in positive territory, according to Kiplinger’s Oct. 1 market recap.
| Index | Oct. 1 close | Daily change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 50,926 | Up 0.04% |
| S&P 500 | 7,666 | Up 0.2% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,871 | Up 0.04% |
The percentage change shows how much each index moved during the session; the closing level is the index’s value at the end of trading. The S&P 500 had the largest percentage gain of the three on Oct. 1, though the move was still small.
What happened to Treasury yields?
Kiplinger reported that the 10-year Treasury yield reached an intraday high of 5.344% before closing at 5.234%. The 30-year yield reached 5.693% intraday and closed at 5.603%. Those are the outlet’s reported intraday and closing figures for Oct. 1, not a single yield reading that held throughout the day.
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The Federal Reserve’s H.15 release dated Oct. 2 lists Oct. 1 nominal constant-maturity yields of 5.24% for 10 years and 5.61% for 30 years. H.15 values are rounded daily-series observations, so they are close to—but not a replacement for—the more precise figures reported by Kiplinger. The Federal Reserve’s H.15 page says the series uses interpolated Treasury yields based on closing market bid yields for actively traded over-the-counter securities and quotation composites gathered by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
These constant-maturity rates are curve-derived reference points, not necessarily yields on one specific Treasury security. The U.S. Treasury says its par yields are interpolated from a daily curve using indicative bid-side quotations from the New York Fed at or near 3:30 p.m.; they are not actual transaction prices. A 10-year constant-maturity rate therefore does not have to match a particular bond with exactly 10 years remaining. See the Treasury’s yield-curve methodology.
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Why did stocks gain while yields fluctuated?
On Oct. 1, higher yields weighed on stocks during the morning, while their later retreat coincided with the indexes’ recovery. Kiplinger also linked the session’s moves to corporate earnings, inflation concerns, energy prices and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. These are contemporaneous explanations of the market action, not evidence that any one factor alone caused the indexes to rise or fall.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesInflation remained an important part of the day’s backdrop. Kiplinger reported that the ISM manufacturing prices index rose 6.8 percentage points from August to September. The outlet quoted Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, saying “inflation remained the dominant story here,” and that “the sharp rebound in input price pressures and persistent supply constraints will likely keep the Fed on edge.”
Interest-rate expectations were changing, too. Kiplinger reported that the market-implied odds of an October rate increase fell to 26% from 69% a week earlier, while futures traders priced a 62% probability of a quarter-point increase in December. Those were probabilities reported at the time, not Fed decisions or guaranteed outcomes; market pricing can change quickly.
What changed on Friday, Oct. 2?
The next completed U.S. session brought stronger gains. The Associated Press attributed Friday’s rally to slower hiring, which eased concerns that an unusually hot economy could add to inflation, and to traders reducing bets on an October Federal Reserve rate increase. Treasury yields initially fell on Friday and then recovered some of their decline as oil prices rebounded, according to the Associated Press market report.
| Index | Oct. 2 close | Daily change | Change for the week |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,722.72 | Up 0.7% | Down 0.3% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,176.96 | Up 0.5% | Down 1.3% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,190.86 | Up 1.2% | Up 0.5% |
The figures are AP’s reported Friday closes and changes. Friday’s broad rally did not mean every index finished the week higher: the S&P 500 and Dow were down for the week, while the Nasdaq was up.
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The market recap behind the title covers Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026—not Friday, Oct. 2. As of Saturday, Oct. 3, Friday was the latest completed U.S. trading session in the cited coverage. The two sessions should be kept separate: Oct. 1 ended with slight gains after yields swung sharply, while Oct. 2 delivered a stronger rally alongside changing rate expectations.
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