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There was no single September 2026 PMI result, and the phrase “slowing contraction” does not fit all the major releases reviewed. U.S. manufacturing and services were still expanding, although their headline indexes eased from August; Türkiye’s manufacturing index fell further below 50. Canada’s Ivey PMI also declined, but it measures purchasing activity and should not be treated as interchangeable with the others.

What did September 2026 PMI show?

PMI results depend on the country, publisher and sector. The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported continued expansion in both manufacturing and services, at a slightly slower pace on each headline measure. Türkiye’s manufacturing PMI showed a modestly deeper contraction. Canada’s seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI fell from August, but its publisher describes the index in terms of whether purchases were greater or lower than in the prior month.

Release September August What the change indicates
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.5 54.6 Expansion continued, with the headline index marginally lower. ISM September manufacturing report
U.S. ISM Services PMI 54.9 55.4 Services continued to grow, but the headline index eased. ISM September services report
Türkiye Manufacturing PMI 47.9 48.1 The index moved further below 50, indicating a deeper contraction. Istanbul Chamber of Industry release
Canada seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI 58.2 64.3 The index declined; Ivey frames its measure around whether purchases rose or fell from the previous month. Ivey PMI

Why “slowing contraction” is not an accurate overall summary

A PMI headline is usually read against 50: above 50 generally signals expansion and below 50 contraction, but interpretation belongs to the specific publisher and index. On that basis, the U.S. ISM manufacturing reading of 54.5 remained in expansion territory, as did services at 54.9. Both were lower than in August, so their growth measures eased; neither showed contraction.

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Türkiye’s manufacturing reading was below 50 in both months and fell from 48.1 to 47.9. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry described ongoing moderate deterioration, with output and new orders declining. That is a worsening contraction, not a slowing one.

Canada’s Ivey index moved down from 64.3 to 58.2. Its own description focuses on whether purchases were greater or lower than in the prior month, so the fall is not a direct substitute for an ISM or Türkiye manufacturing-sector conclusion.

What changed inside U.S. manufacturing?

The headline manufacturing index barely moved, but its components were mixed. ISM’s September report, issued by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said: “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 54.5 percent in September, 0.1 percentage point below the August figure of 54.6 percent.”

ISM manufacturing component September 2026 August 2026 Direction
New Orders Index 55.3 53.7 Rose
Employment Index 52.7 51.2 Rose
Production Index 56.7 58.3 Fell
Inventories Index 48.6 50.6 Fell below 50
Prices Index 77.9 71.1 Rose

New orders and employment strengthened, while production eased. Inventories moved below 50, and the prices index rose notably. These components describe different aspects of the survey; they should not be collapsed into a claim that all manufacturing activity improved or deteriorated together.

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What changed in U.S. services?

The September ISM Services PMI was 54.9, down from 55.4 in August. ISM characterized the sector as growing more slowly, not contracting. The report also noted that the September reading was 0.8 percentage point above its 12-month moving average of 54.1. Read ISM’s services report.

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How to read a PMI without mixing up the signals

  • Check the publisher and geography. “PMI” is not one universal global result. These September figures cover U.S. ISM surveys, Türkiye manufacturing and Canada’s Ivey index.
  • Check the sector and index definition. Manufacturing, services and purchasing indexes do not measure identical activity.
  • Read both the level and the monthly change. A fall from August can mean slower expansion when the index remains above 50, or a deeper contraction when it is already below 50.
  • Look at components where available. New orders, output, employment, inventories and prices can move in different directions, as they did in the U.S. manufacturing report.

ISM’s manufacturing report says a reading above 50 generally indicates expansion in manufacturing and below 50 contraction. It separately notes that a Manufacturing PMI above 47.5 over time generally indicates expansion of the overall economy. That longer-term economy threshold is not the same as the 50-point threshold used to describe manufacturing-sector expansion or contraction.

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