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The U.S. economy added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September 2026, well below forecasts, while unemployment edged up to 4.2%. The picture was weaker than expected but not uniformly deteriorating: prior months were revised down, industry gains were modest, and wages continued to rise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the seasonally adjusted estimates on October 2, 2026.
Why did the September jobs report miss expectations?
Employers added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, compared with 90,000 expected in Reuters’ economist survey ahead of the October 2 release. Another contemporaneous forecast reported by Axios was 84,000, illustrating that expectations varied by source rather than forming one universal number. The actual gain fell short of both.
The BLS said employment changed little in all major industries. The report also revised July and August payrolls lower, weakening the picture of recent hiring. The September estimate is preliminary and can be revised as more information arrives.
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How many jobs were added in September?
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 29,000 in September. The comparison with forecasts is useful, but forecasts are not official targets: Reuters’ survey expectation was 90,000, while Axios reported an expectation of 84,000.
| Measure | September 2026 result | Comparison or context |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payroll change | +29,000 | Below Reuters’ pre-release survey expectation of 90,000 and Axios’s reported expectation of 84,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | Up from 4.1%; Reuters’ survey expected 4.1% |
| People unemployed | 7.1 million | Household-survey measure |
These are U.S. monthly estimates from separate BLS surveys. The establishment survey counts nonfarm payroll jobs and reports hours and earnings; the household survey classifies people by labor-force status, including whether they are unemployed. A person can hold more than one payroll job, and the unemployment rate is the unemployed share of the labor force, so the two headline figures are not alternative counts of the same thing.
Did unemployment go up?
Yes. The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in August to 4.2% in September, and the number of unemployed people was 7.1 million. The BLS said the rate had remained within a 4.1%–4.3% range since March, so September’s increase was small relative to that recent range.
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Other household-survey measures were little changed: labor-force participation was 61.8%, and the employment-population ratio was 59.2%. The survey recorded 78,000 more unemployed people, 406,000 more employed people, and 346,000 fewer people outside the labor force. These are aggregate movements; they do not establish why any particular person became unemployed. Axios described the increase as reflecting more people looking for work, but that is an interpretation, not a causal finding stated by the BLS.
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Why were July and August jobs revised down?
The BLS revised July’s payroll change from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000. August was revised from +162,000 to +133,000. Together, the two months’ employment level was 60,000 lower than previously reported.
Monthly payroll estimates are updated when additional reports from businesses and government agencies become available; the BLS also recalculates seasonal factors. The revisions matter because they change the recent baseline against which September’s modest gain should be judged. They do not mean the September estimate itself is final.
Which industries added or lost jobs?
Gains were limited and varied across sectors. Health care added 17,000 jobs, less than its average monthly gain of 33,000 over the preceding 12 months. Construction added 11,000 and manufacturing added 9,000, while financial activities lost 7,000.
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What happened to wages and hours?
Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm employees rose 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $37.81 in September. Earnings were 3.0% higher than a year earlier. The average workweek remained 34.4 hours.
These pay and hours measures add context to payroll counts but do not by themselves establish whether workers’ purchasing power increased; that comparison would also require inflation data.
What does the report mean for the Federal Reserve?
A weaker-than-expected hiring figure and a slightly higher unemployment rate may inform discussion of the labor market, but this report alone does not determine the Federal Reserve’s next decision. The BLS publishes labor-market measurements, not a policy forecast, and the figures may be revised. Any conclusion about the Fed’s next move should be treated as uncertain rather than as an automatic consequence of September’s report.
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Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation — September 2026
- Reuters via Investing.com, pre-release economist survey and commentary
- Associated Press, September jobs numbers weaker than expected as unemployment ticks higher
- Axios, Why the jobs data is more upbeat than it suggests
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