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A 2026 satellite-geodesy study modeled a shallow source about 200 meters beneath Santiago crater at Masaya Volcano in Nicaragua. The result is an inference from ground movement—not a satellite image of a magma chamber—and the study does not show that an eruption is imminent.

What did scientists find beneath Masaya?

Johnson and colleagues analyzed Sentinel-1 satellite radar data collected from January 2018 through February 2024. In the resulting 2026 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, they modeled two sources that help explain measured changes in the ground surface: a shallow source beneath Santiago crater and a deeper source beneath the center of Masaya’s caldera.

The shallow source was modeled at approximately 200 meters depth. That is the estimated depth of a point source in the authors’ deformation model; it is not a directly measured chamber boundary. EarthScope Consortium’s explainer about the study describes it as a second inferred magma reservoir, consistent with earlier work cited by the paper. “Reservoir” is an interpretation of the source of deformation, not a claim that satellites photographed molten rock underground.

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How did satellite radar reveal the sources?

InSAR—Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar—compares radar observations taken at different times to estimate how the ground surface has shifted. The paper describes its input as “Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series spanning January 2018–February 2024.” The researchers fitted point-source models to the deformation patterns. Those models estimate where sources may lie and how their volume changed; they do not image the subsurface directly.

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That distinction matters when reading the 200-meter figure: it is a model result based on surface deformation, not a depth measured by drilling or a sharp underground boundary mapped by radar.

How do the shallow and deep sources differ?

The study’s two modeled sources are at different depths and had different estimated volume changes. The figures below are the authors’ model estimates for the stated intervals, not direct measurements of magma volume.

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Modeled source Location and depth Modeled volume change
Shallow Santiago source Beneath Santiago crater; approximately 200 m Decrease of about 4,000 m³ in 2018–2022, then decrease of about 6,000 m³ in 2022–2024
Deeper caldera source Below the center of the caldera; approximately 3,200 m Decrease of about 1.3 × 10⁶ m³ in 2018–2022, then increase of about 4.5 × 10⁵ m³ in 2022–2024

The authors interpret the deeper source’s later increase as inflation associated with new magma supply from depth. The modeled changes at the shallow source were decreases in both intervals, so the two sources should not be treated as one chamber behaving uniformly.

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Does the modeled inflation mean Masaya will erupt soon?

No. The paper’s modeled inflation at the deeper source is evidence of a change in the subsurface system, not by itself an eruption forecast. The authors say more inflation may be needed before renewed effusive vent activity. The study does not establish that an eruption is imminent.

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This paper also does not establish Masaya’s current official alert level or visitor access. Those conditions can change and should be checked through current local authorities rather than inferred from the satellite study.

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Why the word “new” needs context

The shallow source was not presented as a first discovery in 2026: the authors describe it as having been inferred previously. The newer contribution is an analysis of a longer Sentinel-1 time series that models both the shallow Santiago source and a deeper source beneath the caldera, and tracks how their inferred volumes changed over the observation period.

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