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A 2026 demographic study identifies Bolotana, a small mountain municipality in Sardinia, Italy, as a place where women aged 70 and older had unusually high survival in 2021–2025. The authors call Bolotana a candidate longevity Blue Zone, not an established one, and the study does not explain why the pattern exists. The headline figure is also the least stable one: it depends heavily on which five-year window is analysed, and the authors say longer observation and further validation are needed before the result can be treated as settled.
What the study measured
The paper, “A new blue zone? exceptional late-life survival in Bolotana, Sardinia,” was written by Giovanni Mario Pes and co-authors and published in Frontiers in Aging on 5 October 2026. The team built sex-specific partial period life tables from validated civil and parish records, using deaths and person-years of exposure at age 70 and older in 2021–2025. They report two indicators:
- Remaining life expectancy at age 70: the average number of further years a person of that age can expect to live, under the period life table.
- Conditional survival from age 70 to exact age 100: the share of people reaching 70 who would reach 100, under the same table.
These are period measures. They describe the mortality rates observed in a calendar window, not the life course of any individual born in Bolotana.
Women’s estimates against reference populations
For women in Bolotana during 2021–2025, the study reports a remaining life expectancy at age 70 of 20.85 years (95% confidence interval 19.42–22.43) and a conditional survival from 70 to 100 of 13.83% (95% CI 7.33–23.75). The comparison figures are arithmetic means of annual official reference estimates for the same period. The authors present them as descriptive comparisons, not formal statistical tests between populations.
#1 Best Overall
| Area (women, 2021–2025) | Remaining life expectancy at 70 (years) | Survival from 70 to 100 |
|---|---|---|
| Bolotana | 20.85 (95% CI 19.42–22.43) | 13.83% (95% CI 7.33–23.75) |
| Nuoro Province | 18.61 | 4.33% |
| Sardinia | 18.40 | 4.43% |
| Italy | 18.06 | 3.54% |
Read the table as a snapshot of one period. A 13.83% survival figure means roughly one woman in seven reaching 70 would, under this model, reach 100; that is an estimate with a wide interval, not a count of observed centenarians.
Why the small numbers matter
The study population averaged 2,266 residents. The primary analysis covered 3,138 person-years at age 70 and older (1,218 in men and 1,920 in women), with 149 deaths in that age range. Only 19 residents reached age 100 during the period, and six of them were alive at the end of follow-up. When the number of people at the oldest ages is this small, a handful of deaths can move the estimate substantially, which is why the intervals are so wide, especially at age 100.
Rank #2
The sensitivity check that changes the picture
When the same method was applied to the 2015–2019 window, the female estimates were far lower. The survival figure fell from 13.83% to 1.46% (95% CI 0.33–5.63), roughly nine times smaller, and remaining life expectancy at 70 was 18.30 years.
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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →| Window (Bolotana women) | Remaining life expectancy at 70 | Survival from 70 to 100 |
|---|---|---|
| 2015–2019 | 18.30 years | 1.46% (95% CI 0.33–5.63) |
| 2021–2025 | 20.85 years (95% CI 19.42–22.43) | 13.83% (95% CI 7.33–23.75) |
The two survival intervals do not overlap. Adding 2020 to an alternative window modestly lowered the 2021–2025 estimates. The authors conclude that the size of the apparent advantage depends on the period studied, which is the main reason they call for longer observation.
Comparison with the original Sardinian Blue Zone
The study also compares Bolotana with the original Sardinian Blue Zone, a historical benchmark built from 14 municipalities for 2015–2019. Because that benchmark comes from a different period, comparing it with Bolotana’s 2021–2025 figures does not show that Bolotana is better. When the comparison is matched to 2015–2019, Bolotana’s estimates are lower than the original Blue Zone’s for both sexes. The authors treat all of these comparisons as descriptive.
The historical record: a cohort measure
Bolotana’s strongest asset, according to the study, is its documentation. Of 3,060 people born there between 1900 and 1925, 38 were documented to have reached 100. That corresponds to an Extreme Longevity Index of 1,242 centenarians per 100,000 live births (exact 95% CI 880–1,701).
This is a different kind of measure from the period life tables. It follows birth cohorts from birth onward, so it includes deaths in childhood and early adulthood, and it should not be compared directly with the 2021–2025 survival percentages.
What the study does not show about causes
The demographic analysis does not test why Bolotana’s women may have this survival profile. The authors say causal mechanisms were outside its scope. They list several plausible contributors that individual-level studies could examine:
Best Value
- genetic background
- dietary patterns
- physical activity
- family support and social cohesion
- continuity of residence
- access to care
These are hypotheses, not findings. A secondary report by ScienceAlert also quotes co-author S. Jay Olshansky describing a close-knit community and walking as common forms of movement. Those are attributed observations in that report, not measured results from the study.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the co-authors said
- S. Jay Olshansky, an epidemiologist and co-author: “We think this is the longest-lived female population in the world, or close to it.” The paper’s own designation is “candidate longevity blue zone,” and the quote should not be read as a settled global ranking.
- Dan Buettner, a co-author who is also founder of Blue Zones, Inc.: “We now know something extraordinary is happening in Bolotana.” He says the next step is to understand why and whether any lessons could apply elsewhere.
- Olshansky, in interviews quoted by ScienceAlert: “What makes Bolotana extraordinary is that it has an incredible historical record that allows us to definitively evaluate ages at birth and death.” He added that “the municipal and baptismal records date back centuries and allowed us to independently verify ages.” These are interview statements, not wording from the paper.
How to read longevity comparisons like this one
Before ranking any population against another, check that the following match:
Quick Recap
- Sex: the Bolotana figures discussed here are for women only.
- Calendar period: 2021–2025 and 2015–2019 produce very different survival figures.
- Indicator: remaining life expectancy at 70 and survival from 70 to 100 are different measures.
- Age range and endpoint: the 70-to-100 measure is sensitive to very small counts at the oldest ages.
- Reference population: Nuoro Province, Sardinia, Italy and the original Blue Zone are not interchangeable.
- Uncertainty: confidence intervals should be read alongside point estimates, and intervals that do not overlap are the clearest sign of a difference.
Sources
- Giovanni Mario Pes and co-authors, “A new blue zone? exceptional late-life survival in Bolotana, Sardinia,” Frontiers in Aging, published 5 October 2026.
- Peter Dockrill, “Scientists Identify a Small Village in Italy Where Women Live Exceptionally Long Lives,” ScienceAlert, 8 October 2026.
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