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Prediction markets are attracting interest amid real financial stress, but the available evidence does not show that anxiety causes young people to use them—or that platforms deliberately exploit that anxiety. One national survey combines prediction markets with sports betting, while a separate poll found prediction-market use among a specific group of young men was still a minority behavior. The distinction matters if you are asking whether these markets can help you make money, or whether they are closer to gambling than investing.
What prediction markets are—and what a contract exposes you to
A prediction market lets participants trade event contracts whose outcomes are defined by the market’s rules. A contract may pay out based on whether a specified event happens. Its price can reflect what participants collectively expect, but that market-implied estimate is not a guarantee that the outcome will occur or that a buyer will profit.
For a participant, the practical questions are what event determines settlement, how the platform calculates the result, what a contract costs, and what happens if the prediction is wrong. A contract’s potential payout is not the same as its purchase price, and trading can result in losing money.
There is also a distinction between a market’s forecasting role and a consumer’s use of it. Federal Reserve staff research studies Kalshi prices as a real-time measure of macroeconomic expectations. The Fed describes Kalshi as the largest federally regulated prediction market overseen by the CFTC, while noting that the paper is preliminary and represents its authors’ views. That research concerns the informational value of market prices; it does not establish that trading is a reliable way for an individual to earn money. Federal Reserve staff paper
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Why money anxiety is part of the conversation
Financial unease is widespread in the data. Northwestern Mutual’s 2026 Planning & Progress Study, conducted online by The Harris Poll among 4,375 U.S. adults from January 5–21, 2026, found that 50% of U.S. adults said uncertainty brings anxiety. In the same study, 72% of Gen Z adults said financial challenges had led them to postpone at least one significant financial milestone, and 71% worried that at least one such milestone might never be affordable. These are self-reported survey answers, not clinical diagnoses.
That context helps explain why a product framed around predicting outcomes or reaching a financial goal can attract attention. But the survey figures do not show that financial stress causes prediction-market use, or that anyone made money—or lost it—because they felt behind.
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What the surveys say about young adults’ interest and actual use
The strongest evidence needs to be read with its question wording and population attached:
| Finding | What was measured | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| 32% of Gen Z adults, in Northwestern Mutual’s 2026 survey | Respondents said they were invested in or considering “sports betting / prediction markets.” The study was sponsored by Northwestern Mutual and conducted by The Harris Poll among U.S. adults. | It does not separate sports betting from prediction markets, or consideration from current participation. |
| 80% of Gen Z respondents considering or using high-risk/speculative investments, in Northwestern Mutual’s 2026 survey | They said they felt financially behind and believed those assets could help them reach goals faster than traditional methods. | It does not show that prediction markets specifically were the asset in question, or that the belief is financially sound. |
| 8% of men ages 18–24, in a 2026 Ipsos poll commissioned by the American Institute for Boys and Men | They reported using a prediction market in the preceding six months. The poll surveyed 2,363 adults overall and oversampled 447 men ages 18–24; fieldwork was February 27–March 1, 2026. | This subgroup result is not an estimate for all young adults, and it measures reported use rather than profit or loss. |
The Northwestern Mutual study also reported that 24% of Millennials and 17% of U.S. adults overall were invested in or considering the combined sports-betting/prediction-market category. Among those considering or using high-risk/speculative investments, 75% of Millennials and 73% overall said they felt financially behind and viewed these assets as a faster route to goals than traditional methods. Those figures describe a broad category and self-reported views, not prediction-market outcomes.
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Are prediction markets gambling or investing?
There is no single answer that resolves every contract, platform, or jurisdiction. In the Ipsos/AIBM poll, 47% of men ages 18–24 described event contracts as closer to gambling, while 10% described them as closer to investing. Those are respondents’ perceptions, not a legal classification. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve staff research considers prices as a forecasting signal. A tool can convey information about expectations while still exposing a participant to gambling-like financial risk.
To assess a particular product, separate six questions:
- What is the contract? Read the event definition and settlement rules rather than relying on a headline or shorthand description.
- Are people considering it or using it? Survey results that combine intent and participation cannot answer how many actually trade.
- How much can you lose? Check the contract price, payout conditions, fees if stated by the platform, and the loss if the event resolves against your position.
- How is it described and regulated? Platform language and regulatory treatment can vary; a forecasting use case does not by itself determine the consumer or legal classification.
- What protections apply where you live? Availability and safeguards depend on the platform and jurisdiction.
- What does the statistic count? Participation, consideration, trading volume, revenue, and user losses are different measures.
Why market volume is not the same as money users lost
Headline trading-volume figures can sound like the amount of cash changing hands, but the underlying measure matters. Pew’s analysis tracks Kalshi, Polymarket International, and Polymarket US through July 2026. It uses notional taker volume, valuing each contract at its $1 notional or payout value—or its correct-outcome value—rather than the price paid at the time of trade. That figure is not a direct measure of user spending, losses, net deposits, or platform revenue. Pew Research Center’s volume analysis
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsWhat youth gambling data can—and cannot—tell us
Younger people encounter gambling in a broader environment, but U.K. youth figures should not be mistaken for U.S. prediction-market statistics. The U.K. Gambling Commission’s 2025 survey collected responses from 3,666 pupils aged 11–17 in England, Scotland, and Wales. Thirty percent said they had spent their own money on any form of gambling in the preceding 12 months. The share was 23% for regulated forms when arcade machines were included, and 6% when arcade machines were excluded. The Commission’s youth-adapted screen classified 1.2% as experiencing problem gambling and 2.2% as at risk. The survey did not measure prediction-market use specifically.
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The Commission also reported that 49% of young people saw gambling-related advertising weekly on social media and 47% via apps. Among young people who saw gambling content on social media, 31% said influencers had advertised such content to them. These figures concern U.K. pupils and broad gambling content, not prediction-market advertising or prevalence. Gambling Commission: Young People and Gambling 2025
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What protections to look for before risking money
A 2026 NCPG/Harris survey fielded May 12–14 asked U.S. adults about prediction-market platforms and raised deposit limits, cooling-off periods, and access to help resources as examples of responsible-gaming or consumer-protection tools. Their inclusion in public discussion does not mean every platform offers them, or that they work identically across jurisdictions. National Council on Problem Gambling survey materials
If you are considering a market, check the actual platform terms and the rules that apply where you live. Useful safeguards to verify include:
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- Whether the platform provides a cooling-off period or account time-out.
- How to pause or close an account and access help resources.
- Whether you can afford to lose the full amount you put at risk without delaying a bill, debt payment, savings goal, or other essential expense.
Do not treat a prediction as a substitute for a budget, emergency savings, or a long-term financial plan. Northwestern Mutual Chief Field Officer John Roberts said in the company’s September 1, 2026 release that risk-taking should be intentional and fit within a broader strategy that balances growth with protection. Northwestern Mutual sells financial and insurance products, so that statement comes from a commercial financial-services context; it is not independent evidence that any particular product is appropriate.
Can prediction markets help you make money?
They can produce a payout when a contract resolves in your favor, but the evidence cited here does not establish that young participants reliably profit, that these markets improve financial security, or that people who feel behind have better outcomes. A favorable price or a crowd’s apparent confidence is not a promise of a correct forecast. If a loss would make an already difficult financial situation worse, the possibility of a payout should not be mistaken for a dependable route to a goal.
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