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Before placing a prediction-market trade, check more than the displayed price. Your total cost depends on the venue’s fee for that market and order type, the bid–ask spread, and how much of the order can fill at each price level. Also verify the contract’s exact settlement rules: two similar-looking markets may not settle the same way.
What the displayed price tells you—and what it does not
A prediction-market contract price is often expressed in cents and can be read as a market-implied probability. Kalshi Pro’s glossary, updated September 4, 2026, gives the example of a 63¢ YES price, or $0.6300 before fees. It describes a market settling at $1.0000 if its stated condition is true and $0.0000 if false. The price is not a guarantee: the contract’s own wording determines the outcome. Read Kalshi Pro’s trading glossary.
To compare prices meaningfully, read each market’s exact condition, cutoff, resolution source, and settlement terms. Similar headlines can describe contracts with different outcomes or deadlines. A price comparison that ignores those differences is not a like-for-like comparison.
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How to check spread and liquidity
The order book lists offers to buy and sell at different prices, along with the quantities available. The best bid is the highest resting buy offer; the best ask is the lowest resting sell offer. Their difference is the quoted spread. Crossing that spread is a visible cost of trading immediately, separate from any platform fee.
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The best bid and ask show only the top of the book. If your order is larger than the quantity available there, an immediately executing order can consume offers at several price levels. Its average fill price may therefore be worse than the best displayed quote. A market’s reported trading volume does not by itself show how much is available at the price and size you need.
- Spread: Compare the best bid with the best ask at the time you intend to trade.
- Depth: Inspect the quantity at multiple nearby price levels, not just the top quote.
- Order size: Estimate how far your intended quantity would move through the visible book and what the resulting average price would be.
- Exit: If you may close the position before settlement, check the likely spread, depth, and fees for that trade too.
How order type affects the fill
A limit order sets the maximum price you will pay to buy, or the minimum price you will accept to sell. It can rest in the order book, but it may not fill. An order designed to execute immediately prioritizes a fill and may take quantities at several price levels, worsening the average price as it moves through the book. Venue fee rules may also distinguish between resting orders and orders that execute immediately.
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Neither order type removes all trade-offs. A limit order gives you price control but no assurance of execution; an immediate order can execute more quickly but may incur price impact and a different fee. Check the venue’s current fee treatment for the specific order and market.
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What fees prediction markets charge
Fees are venue- and market-specific. Polymarket’s Help Center article “Trading Fees,” dated July 10, 2026, says taker fees apply in certain markets and that makers are not charged. It gives the formula fee = C × feeRate × p × (1 − p), where C is the number of shares traded and p is the share price. The article lists category fee rates as follows; these are the rates published on that date, not a guarantee of current terms for every market:
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| Polymarket category | Published taker fee rate |
|---|---|
| Crypto | 0.07 |
| Sports | 0.05 |
| Finance | 0.04 |
| Politics | 0.04 |
| Economics | 0.05 |
| Culture | 0.05 |
| Weather | 0.05 |
| Other/general | 0.05 |
| Mentions | 0.04 |
| Tech | 0.04 |
| Geopolitics | 0 |
Because the formula also depends on share price, the category rate alone does not tell you the fee for a particular trade. The price term p(1 − p) varies with the contract price, so estimate the fee using the intended quantity and price and confirm the market’s current terms. Polymarket’s article also says geopolitical and world-event markets are fee-free, describes maker rebates funded by fees with category-specific rebate percentages, and says Polymarket itself charges no deposit or withdrawal fee; intermediaries may charge. Those statements are from the July 10, 2026 article and should not be assumed to cover changed or market-specific terms. See Polymarket’s Trading Fees article.
A 2026 CFTC-hosted research paper reports Kalshi maker and taker formulas of 0.0175 × c × p(1 − p) and 0.07 × c × p(1 − p), respectively. Treat these as formulas reported by that paper, not as a verified current Kalshi schedule. Check Kalshi’s current fee information and the applicable market display before relying on a numerical estimate. CFTC website.
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How to estimate your full trade cost
Do not treat the platform fee as the total cost. Assess the fee, the spread you cross, and the effect of available depth on your execution separately. For a practical estimate, use the actual order size and the live book rather than multiplying the best quote by your whole quantity.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware match- Verify the contract. Compare the exact outcome condition, cutoff, resolution source, and settlement terms on each market.
- Identify your order type. Determine whether the order will rest in the book or execute immediately, and check how the venue classifies it for fees.
- Check the current fee terms. Use the market category, price, quantity, and maker/taker treatment that apply to your proposed trade.
- Inspect the live book. Record the best bid and ask, then review the quantities available at nearby price levels.
- Estimate execution and exit. For an immediate order, account for the levels your quantity may consume and the resulting average fill. If you may close early, evaluate the book and fees on the exit as well.
- Confirm access and eligibility. Check whether the venue and market are available to you under the current venue terms.
If comparing two venues or two order choices, use the same contract, intended quantity, timing, and cost components for each. An apparent price gap is not necessarily arbitrage: first confirm equivalent settlement rules and that both sides can actually fill at the expected size after fees.
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Why an order can fill at a different price
The best displayed quote is a price for the quantity available at that level, not necessarily for your entire order. An immediate order that exceeds that quantity may continue through the book and receive a different average price. The spread can also change as orders enter or leave. A limit order can avoid paying above its maximum buy price, but it may remain unfilled if the market does not reach it.
For this reason, compare the order’s actual execution with the book and order type you used, rather than assuming the headline price applies to every share. Keep execution price, fee, and any exit cost as distinct parts of the estimate.
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