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Latvia’s 15th Saeima election opened on 3 October 2026, with polls scheduled from 08:00 to 20:00 local time. Security concerns formed part of the backdrop, but Latvia’s State Security Service said on 28 September it had not identified significant, systematic attempts by Russia or other hostile countries to influence the result for a particular party or candidate. It did report individual election-related disinformation attempts. The two findings are distinct: public concern is not proof of interference, and the absence of identified systematic efforts is not a claim that no interference occurred.
What is happening in Latvia’s election?
Voters are choosing members of the 15th Saeima, Latvia’s parliament. The Central Election Commission (CEC) lists election-day voting hours as 08:00–20:00 local time on 3 October. Al Jazeera reported that polls opened at 05:00 GMT and were due to close at 17:00 GMT.
Al Jazeera estimated that about 1.5 million people were eligible to vote. Fourteen electoral lists were contesting the election. At the time of its 3 October report, final results, turnout, seat distribution and a governing coalition had not been established in the material reviewed; the CEC is the official place to check for results as they are published.
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In a statement dated 28 September 2026, Latvia’s State Security Service (VDD) said it had not identified “significant and systematic attempts” by Russia or other countries hostile to Latvia to influence the Saeima result in favour of a political party or candidate. The service separately said it had identified individual attempts to spread election-related disinformation connected to specific parties.
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That assessment is limited to what VDD said it had identified by that date. It does not establish that no foreign activity took place, nor does it equate individual disinformation attempts with a systematic effort to shape the result.
The VDD’s broader security assessment is different in scope: its summary of the 2025 annual report described Russia’s intelligence and security services as the biggest threat to Latvia’s national security that year, citing intelligence activity, malign activity, psychological operations, propaganda and online disinformation. That strategic context helps explain concern, but it is not evidence of a successful operation in the 2026 election.
How concerned are Latvian residents?
A TNS Latvia survey commissioned by the State Chancellery in July 2026 found that 36.2% of residents were concerned about possible election interference by Russia or another country hostile to Latvia. This measures concern, not the share who witnessed interference or proof that interference occurred.
The same survey found that 73.3% of Latvian citizens said they planned to vote, an increase of 4.4 percentage points from March 2026. That figure records stated intention, not actual turnout.
How is Latvia securing the election?
The Cabinet says election preparations began in January 2026 and included testing technical solutions, refining response scenarios and coordinating public information. Authorities prepared for several types of disruption, not just foreign influence campaigns.
- Information manipulation: monitoring and responding to disinformation, including AI-generated material and deepfakes.
- Cyber and election systems: monitoring election IT, conducting independent audits and using an electronic online voter register.
- Campaign violations and coercion: watching for illegal campaigning, covert funding, vote-buying and pressure on voters.
- Public safety: preparing for physical threats and public-order incidents. The government says polling hours may be extended if voting is temporarily suspended because of an airborne threat.
The government says ballots will not be scanned during counting: polling-station staff will count ballot papers manually, with results reported progressively through the CEC. Its stated principle is that public institutions should protect a fair process and each voter’s right to vote freely, rather than influence political choices.
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What should voters report?
VDD’s election-period notice urges people to report suspected vote-buying, coercion, illegal campaigning and deliberately false or discrediting election deepfakes through the reporting channels listed by VDD and police. The notice says political leafleting and campaigning at polling stations are prohibited on election day and the preceding day. The CEC’s official website is the primary source for voting procedures and election results.
What else is shaping the vote?
Election-day coverage also pointed to cost-of-living pressures and difficult coalition arithmetic. Al Jazeera reported that polls suggested around seven of the 14 lists might clear the parliamentary 5% threshold. It described the United List at about 20% and Latvia First at about 9%; these were polling estimates, not official vote shares or results.
Parties’ positions on Ukraine and Europe, domestic living costs and public services, and their willingness to work with potential coalition partners are also relevant to how the next government might be formed. Al Jazeera characterized most parties as pro-Ukraine and said Sovereign Power’s position on support for Ukraine differed from the mainstream; several parties had ruled out coalition cooperation with it. Those descriptions and coalition expectations do not determine the election outcome.
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