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Zerodha founder and CEO Nithin Kamath says India’s IPO market is thriving even as the broader equity market feels weak. A closing-price snapshot of 125 mainboard IPOs listed from October 2025 through September 2026 supports that contrast: 67.2% were above their issue prices at the October 6, 2026 close, with a median return of 24.7%. But nearly one in three was still below issue price, and those group figures are not a promise of easy listing gains.
What did Nithin Kamath say about IPOs and the wider market?
In an October 7, 2026 post on X, Kamath called IPOs the “only bullish corner of the market right now.” He said the broader market had been steadily falling and “certainly feels like a bear market,” while recent IPO listings were “a full-on party.” He also said he could not recall a recent divergence as stark between the primary and secondary markets.
That is Kamath’s characterization, not a formal or universally accepted diagnosis of market conditions. The Economic Times report carrying his comments also cited the Nifty 50 at 22,603 at the Tuesday close, 3,770.2 points (about 14.3%) below its 26,373.20 peak and down 13.55% year to date. Those are figures reported by the outlet; they were not independently verified against exchange records for this article.
How strong were recent mainboard IPO returns?
The Economic Times reported a five-cohort comparison based on data shared by Kamath. It measured each IPO’s return from issue price to the October 6, 2026 closing price, excluding dividends. The latest 12-month listing cohort performed substantially better than the one immediately before it.
#1 Best Overall
| Listing window | IPOs | Above issue price at October 6, 2026 close | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2025–September 2026 | 125 | 67.2% | +24.7% |
| October 2024–September 2025 | 95 | 47.4% | −9.4% |
The latest cohort’s return distribution shows why a positive median does not mean every IPO rose. In the same October report, 17.6% of the 125 listings were up 0–25% by the stated endpoint, 18.4% up 25–50%, 17.6% up 50–100%, and 13.6% up more than 100%. On the downside, 20.8% were down 0–25%, 6.4% down 25–50%, and 5.6% down more than 50%. Thus, 32.8% were below issue price at the October 6 close.
Why do listing-day gains tell a different story?
A separate Mint analysis, published September 3, 2026, looked at listing-day opening prices rather than later closing prices. In its latest window, September 2025–August 2026, 74.1% of IPOs opened above issue price, but only 3.7% opened more than 50% above it; the reported median listing gain was 6.08%.
These measures answer different questions. Mint’s figures describe the gap between issue price and the opening price on the first trading day. The Economic Times cohort figures describe where shares closed on October 6, 2026, relative to issue price, across IPOs listed over specified 12-month windows. The windows, price points and reported medians are not interchangeable and should not be combined into one return measure.
What the cohort figures do—and do not—show
The Economic Times comparison covers 401 mainboard IPOs across five 12-month listing cohorts. It excludes SME listings, REITs, InvITs and FPOs. Returns are measured from issue price to the October 6, 2026 close and do not include dividends. The figures were attributed to data shared by Kamath; the reviewed coverage does not establish an independent audit of the underlying dataset.
- They describe groups, not an individual investor’s result. A median summarizes the middle observation; it does not say that each IPO delivered that return.
- They do not establish future performance. The contrast between the latest cohort and the prior one illustrates how much cohort outcomes can differ; it is not a forecast.
- They do not mean a popular IPO is easy to buy. Kamath noted in a September 2026 post that greater IPO popularity can lower the odds of receiving an allotment.
- They cover mainboard IPOs only. The reported cohort percentages should not be generalized to SME offerings or to other fundraising instruments.
For the cohort figures and Kamath’s October comments, see The Economic Times’ October 7, 2026 report. For the separate opening-price analysis and allotment caveat, see Mint’s September 3, 2026 analysis.
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