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Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis and a fund manager, has argued that oil prices had already reached a near-term top. In an interview published in a MacroVoices transcript dated April 30, 2026, he said price risk tilted toward stable or slightly lower levels, while geopolitical risk could keep prices above the levels seen in the preceding two years.
That is one analyst’s opinion, not an official forecast, and it is now more than five months old. The official outlooks published since then do not add up to a single “ample supply” picture. This article separates what Lacalle said from what the forecasts say, and explains what would have to happen for the rebound to fade.
What Lacalle said, and what he did not say
The line most often quoted from the interview is a direct statement of opinion:
“In my opinion, oil prices have already reached the top from now on.”
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The qualifier matters. He framed the near-term outlook as one where risks were balanced toward flat or slightly lower prices, not as a call for a sharp fall. He also said geopolitical risk could keep prices higher than they had been in the two years before. Secondary reporting on the same remarks describes him as viewing the conflict-related price premium as overstated, and expecting prices to ease as supply adjusts. The transcript is the better guide to his exact wording.
The headline’s phrase “ample supply” is therefore an interpretation of his view, not a quotation from it. Lacalle’s comments connect a peak in prices with a loosening supply picture, but they do not establish a current oversupply in physical markets.
Where the forecasts diverge
Each outlook below uses different dates, assumptions and measures, so the rows are not a like-for-like scorecard. The table shows what each source actually reported.
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →| Source and date | Price benchmark | 2026 demand | Supply or market balance | Conditions and caveats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Lacalle, MacroVoices interview transcript (April 30, 2026) | Not stated as a numeric forecast | Not stated | Not stated; said price risk tilted stable to slightly lower | Personal opinion; said geopolitical risk could keep prices above the prior two years’ levels |
| Reuters economist poll, reported January 5, 2026 (34 economists and analysts, surveyed December 2025) | Brent average $61.27 per barrel; WTI average $58.15 per barrel, for 2026 | Not stated | Not stated | Dated expectation set before later events; not a current quote or current consensus |
| International Energy Agency outlook, June 17, 2026 (as reported by S&P Global) | Not stated | Contraction of 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) | Market could return to surplus in Q4 2026 if supply recovered | Conditional on improving conditions; exposed to downside risks |
| International Energy Agency outlook, September 11, 2026 (as reported by ICIS) | Not stated | Decline of 2.5 mb/d; recovery of 2.6 mb/d in 2027 | Output expected to rebound by 8 mb/d in 2027 | Forecasts, not observed results; figures as reported by ICIS rather than quoted from the IEA’s own text |
Only the Reuters poll gives price forecasts. The IEA figures describe supply and demand balances, so they explain the direction of prices without stating a price target.
How the IEA’s view changed between June and September
June: a possible fourth-quarter surplus, if supply returns
The June outlook, as reported by S&P Global, expected oil demand to contract by 1.1 mb/d in 2026. It said the market could move back into surplus in the fourth quarter if supply recovered. That surplus was conditional on improving conditions, and the report carried downside risks. This is the version of events in which an “ample supply” story would look plausible.
September: deeper demand loss, and recovery pushed into 2027
The September outlook, as reported by ICIS, projected a larger 2026 demand decline of 2.5 mb/d. It saw demand recovering by 2.6 mb/d in 2027 and output rebounding by 8 mb/d in the same year. The two reports are successive forecasts from the same agency, and the September one moved the balance of the story from a near-term surplus toward a 2027 recovery. It does not confirm that either path has happened.
Three conditions that decide whether the rebound fades
Restoration of disrupted production and shipping
A supply rebound only loosens the market if barrels actually reach buyers. Both IEA outlooks depend on production and shipping returning to normal after the Middle East disruption. If restoration is slower than assumed, the supply side stays tight and the price peak Lacalle describes may not hold.
Demand response to prices
A 2026 demand contraction of 1.1 to 2.5 mb/d, depending on which IEA outlook is used, indicates that higher prices were expected to reduce consumption. The question is how fast demand returns. The September outlook assumes recovery only in 2027, so the market would have to absorb a large supply increase before demand catches up.
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Geopolitical and shipping risk
Lacalle himself said geopolitical risk could keep prices above the levels of the preceding two years. That is the main reason his peak call is not a guarantee. A renewed disruption to Middle East supply or shipping would change every forecast in the table, and the September outlook already reflects how quickly those assumptions can move.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to check an oil outlook before relying on it
- Publication date and survey period. The Reuters poll was surveyed in December 2025 and reported in January 2026; a forecast made before a major event is out of date after it.
- Benchmark. Brent and WTI trade at different levels. Compare like with like, and check whether the forecast gives a price at all.
- Forecast horizon. A “2026” figure and a “2027” figure answer different questions.
- Forecast or observation. Most oil outlooks, including the IEA’s, describe expected balances, not outcomes.
- Stated conditions. A forecast that says “if supply recovers” is describing a scenario, not a base case.
- Primary or secondary source. Check whether a figure comes from the agency’s own report or from a news summary of it.
None of these outlooks guarantees a direction for oil prices, and none should be read as investment guidance.
What to watch next
- Whether the IEA’s next monthly oil market report keeps the 2026 demand contraction near the September figure or moves it back toward June’s estimate.
- Whether the fourth-quarter surplus that the June outlook described shows up in inventory data or in the balance of supply and demand.
- Whether the 2027 supply rebound of 8 mb/d and the demand recovery of 2.6 mb/d move closer together, or whether one arrives well ahead of the other.
- Any new disruption to Middle East production or shipping, since each one would reopen the assumptions behind every forecast above.
Lacalle’s view is worth following because it tests the peak thesis directly. Read it alongside the IEA’s balance estimates, not in place of them.
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