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No. An office lease or property deal does not prove that return-to-office (RTO) is working or that hybrid work is ending. A lease records a real estate decision; attendance data records where employees go, and utilization data shows how much of the office is used. Those measures can point in different directions: companies can meet more attendance targets, keep hybrid schedules, and retain or expand office space at the same time.
What a real estate deal can—and cannot—tell you
A lease is a commitment about space, not a headcount of people showing up. Renewals, relocations, expansions, contractions, redesigned offices and flexible-space arrangements may all appear in market activity, but each reflects a mix of factors: workplace policy, employee behavior, portfolio costs, location, growth plans and the condition or layout of existing space.
That makes a transaction a partial, often lagging indicator of workplace change. A company may sign a multi-year lease based on expected needs, then use the space unevenly across the week. Conversely, it may reduce square footage while maintaining an in-office policy by sharing desks or changing the layout. A deal by itself does not establish which of these is happening, and no individual transaction should be treated as representative of the wider market.
Attendance and space plans can move in different directions
CBRE’s 2025 Americas Office Occupier Sentiment Survey covered companies in the United States, Canada and Latin America. It found that employees averaged 2.9 in-office days a week, compared with employers’ average expectation of 3.2 days. At the same time, 67% of surveyed occupiers expected to maintain or expand their office portfolios over the following three years, while 33% expected to contract them. These are reported attendance and future intentions—not observed lease outcomes or proof that one caused the other.
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The figures are compatible. A company can keep a hybrid schedule while retaining space for expected headcount growth, peak attendance, collaboration, employee experience or a preferred location. In CBRE’s survey, 83% of respondents planning to expand cited organic headcount growth; about 19% of respondents cited over-contraction during the pandemic or increased return-to-office activity. Respondents planning to contract cited pre-pandemic portfolio inefficiencies, adapting to hybrid work and expense reduction. The survey describes reasons and plans, not a single market-wide explanation for deals.
What attendance, policy and utilization measure
- Employer policy: What an organization expects, such as a minimum number of office days. Policy is not evidence that employees comply.
- Attendance: How often employees are reported to be on site. CBRE’s 2025 survey found 90% of surveyed organizations had specific attendance expectations and 77% expected employees to be in the office at least three days a week. It also reported that 72% said they met their attendance goals, up from 61% in 2024. These are survey responses from organizations, not a direct count of every worker.
- Peak-day utilization: How much of the office is in use on its busiest days. CBRE’s 2025 survey found 73% of organizations reported peak-day utilization effectively at capacity.
- Average utilization: How much of the office is used across a broader period. In the same CBRE survey, 34% said average usage was at capacity. Peak and average figures answer different questions: a busy Tuesday can coexist with quieter days and unused space overall.
Utilization also depends on how it is measured. JLL’s 2025 global Occupancy Planning Benchmark Report announcement reported 54% office utilization, up from 49% in 2024. Among benchmark respondents, 90% used badge swipes, 49% used reservation systems and 41% used visual observation; methods can overlap. JLL said only 7% rated their data collection as excellent. These are benchmark findings, not an all-office census, and should not be combined with CBRE’s Americas survey as though both measured the same population in the same way.
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Why more space does not necessarily mean more in-office days
Total square footage is only one part of an office strategy. Companies can redesign space to support different activities or manage fluctuating attendance without adopting full-time office work. CBRE reported that, among 66 clients with nearly 350 million square feet of office space globally, collaborative space averaged 20% of office square footage in 2023, up from 14% in 2021; private space averaged 45%, down from 56%. This example shows how the mix of space can change alongside hybrid work. It does not show that all companies are making the same redesign or that square footage alone reveals how often employees attend.
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Time horizon matters, too. A signed lease is a specific commitment; a multi-year portfolio plan is a stated intention; attendance and utilization describe reported behavior over a measurement period. Treating all three as interchangeable obscures whether the question is about future space, current employee habits or the experience of a typical workday.
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How to read claims that companies are “returning to the office”
- Identify the measure. Is the claim based on a lease, an employer policy, reported attendance, badge data or utilization? Each supports a different conclusion.
- Check who and where it covers. CBRE’s survey covers organizations across the Americas; JLL’s benchmark is global. McKinsey’s American Opportunity Survey covers U.S. adults, while its separate estimate about office visits is global research. Do not treat these samples as one comparable series.
- Separate targets from outcomes. A three-day requirement is an expectation. A reported success rate against attendance goals is a survey finding. Neither is identical to continuous measurement of every employee.
- Compare peak with average. Near-capacity use on the busiest days does not mean the office is full on an average day.
- Read the transaction type and time horizon. A renewal, expansion, relocation and contraction have different implications. A multi-year plan is not the same as a completed deal or a present-day attendance count.
- Look for evidence about behavior alongside space commitments. Attendance and utilization data are more direct indicators of office use than a lease announcement, though their collection methods and populations still matter.
What broader work patterns suggest
McKinsey’s May 6, 2025 article reported a modest increase in fully on-site work compared with 2022, drawing on its fourth American Opportunity Survey. That survey’s 2024 fieldwork was conducted by Ipsos from August 5–27 among 9,560 U.S. adults aged 18 and older, using probability-based KnowledgePanel sampling plus supplemental nonprobability panel sampling and weighting. McKinsey noted that the sampling transition may disrupt comparisons with earlier years. The article also summarized separate McKinsey Global Institute research as finding that workers go to the office about 30% less often than before the pandemic. That is a cited global estimate, not a new 2025 global attendance census.
Together, these findings support a more precise reading than “leases mean hybrid work is over”: on-site work may be increasing in some measures, while hybrid attendance remains meaningful and office use varies by day. Real estate activity provides context about portfolio decisions, but it cannot settle the question of how people work without attendance and utilization evidence.
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