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Nvidia is estimated to account for 37.3% of projected global high-bandwidth memory (HBM) capacity in 2027, according to Morgan Stanley channel checks reported on September 28, 2026. That is a forecast of Nvidia’s share as a buyer—not a confirmed allocation or a claim that Nvidia will control 37.3% of HBM production.
What does Nvidia’s estimated 37.3% share mean?
The estimate describes the portion of projected 2027 global HBM capacity expected to be taken up by Nvidia as a buyer. A report published September 28, 2026, attributed the figure to Morgan Stanley channel checks; it also put Alphabet at 36% and AMD at 12.1%. These are analyst estimates, not allocations disclosed by the companies or memory suppliers. Source: Tom’s Hardware, September 28, 2026.
HBM is a type of high-bandwidth memory used alongside processors in demanding computing systems, including AI data-center hardware. The reported percentage concerns projected capacity by buyer. It is not a measurement of Nvidia’s share of HBM chips manufactured, nor does it establish that a fixed quantity has already been reserved.
What Nvidia has disclosed—and what it has not
In its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, Nvidia said its supply and capacity commitments rose from $119 billion in the prior quarter to $279 billion. The company described the commitments as primarily covering memory and manufacturing facilities to support data-center products and future architectures. The filing does not identify the full $279 billion as HBM purchases or confirm a 37% share of 2027 HBM capacity. Nvidia Form 10-Q, filed with the SEC.
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The dollar figure and the 37.3% estimate measure different things: Nvidia disclosed an aggregate value for supply and capacity commitments, while the percentage is an analyst estimate of its share of projected HBM capacity. The filing cannot be used as proof of the channel-check estimate.
Buyer share is not supplier share
Memory suppliers’ projected shares answer a separate question: who is expected to produce the HBM bits? BofA Global Research’s August 7, 2026 forecast put SK hynix at 44% and Samsung at 37% of 2027 HBM bit market share. Those producer-side estimates do not conflict with Nvidia’s estimated buyer share, because the figures use different denominators. BofA Global Research forecast, August 7, 2026.
| Measure | Estimate or disclosure | What it describes |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia buyer share | 37.3% of projected 2027 global HBM capacity | Estimated capacity demand by buyer; attributed to Morgan Stanley channel checks in a September 28, 2026 report. |
| Alphabet buyer share | 36% of projected 2027 global HBM capacity | Estimated capacity demand by buyer; attributed to Morgan Stanley channel checks in the same report. |
| AMD buyer share | 12.1% of projected 2027 global HBM capacity | Estimated capacity demand by buyer; attributed to Morgan Stanley channel checks in the same report. |
| SK hynix supplier share | 44% of forecast 2027 HBM bit market | Projected producer share in BofA Global Research’s August 7, 2026 report. |
| Samsung supplier share | 37% of forecast 2027 HBM bit market | Projected producer share in BofA Global Research’s August 7, 2026 report. |
Why the 2027 figure remains uncertain
The 37.3% figure is a forward-looking estimate based on analyst channel checks, not a published allocation from Nvidia or a memory maker. Nvidia also warns that supply constraints, delays in customer deployments, and changes in adoption can affect production, revenue timing, and supply-chain expenses. Those factors make it uncertain whether projected demand will translate into the same delivered capacity in 2027. Nvidia Form 10-Q.
The original Morgan Stanley research note was not directly available; the 37.3% estimate is reported secondhand. BofA’s supplier percentages are also a forecast, not an observed 2027 outcome. The most accurate reading is therefore that Nvidia may account for about 37% of projected HBM capacity by buyer in 2027—not that it has definitively secured or controls that share.
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