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The NFL is urging the Supreme Court to review whether sports-related prediction-market contracts are gambling subject to state laws or “swaps” governed by the federal derivatives framework. In a brief filed October 8, 2026, in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC, the league backs state regulation. The Court has not been reported to have accepted the case or decided the issue.
What did the NFL ask the Supreme Court to do?
The NFL filed an amicus brief supporting the petitioners’ request for Supreme Court review in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC, docket No. 26-299. An amicus brief is a submission by a non-party intended to inform the Court; it is not a ruling, and the NFL’s position is advocacy rather than a judicial finding.
The dispute is about who can regulate sports event contracts listed on federally designated contract markets (DCMs). The NFL argues that contracts tied to game results are sports wagers and should remain subject to state gambling laws, rather than receive protection from those laws as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). The league says it agrees with the Sixth and Ninth Circuits’ approach: “As between the two approaches, the NFL believes the Sixth and Ninth Circuits got it right, given the current landscape.”
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That is the central legal question, and the answer is contested. Calling a product a prediction-market contract does not settle its legal status. Courts must interpret the CEA’s definition of a “swap,” including its reference to events associated with potential financial, economic, or commercial consequences, and decide how that definition fits the rest of the statute.
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The NFL’s argument
The league presents derivatives regulation as having a historical role in managing existing commercial or financial risks and supporting price discovery. In its view, a contract that lets someone take a position on a game outcome creates a risk for gambling rather than hedging a risk the participant already faces. The NFL argues that Congress did not use the Dodd-Frank Act to bring sports betting under federal derivatives law. Its brief states: “Read in its statutory and historical context, Dodd-Frank’s definition of ‘swap’ reaches only instruments created and used for the purpose of hedging preexisting risk—not wagers that create risk primarily for gambling purposes.”
Why the courts disagree
The Third Circuit reached the opposite result in New Jersey litigation, emphasizing the statutory text and concluding that the contracts at issue qualified as swaps. The Ninth Circuit treated sports-event contracts as sports gambling in context and concluded that state regulation could apply. The NFL cites both the Sixth and Ninth Circuits as supporting the state-regulation approach. The competing decisions make the dispute consequential beyond one company or state: the issue is whether similar contracts can be treated differently under federal and state law.
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Can states regulate sports event contracts on a DCM?
States argue that sports event contracts are wagers within their authority to regulate gambling. The CFTC’s asserted position, as described in the filings and reporting, is that federally registered DCMs fall within its exclusive authority over swaps. The legal fight therefore includes federal preemption: whether the federal derivatives framework displaces state gambling rules for these contracts, or whether states can apply their gambling laws even when a contract is listed on a DCM.
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The NFL’s brief argues for the latter approach. It says federal registration and the platform’s characterization of a contract should not, by themselves, remove sports wagering from state oversight. That is the league’s view, not a settled nationwide rule from the Supreme Court.
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Why does the NFL say the issue is urgent?
The league says prediction markets have become a substantial venue for trading tied to NFL games. Its October 8 brief reports that NFL-related contracts represented $1.8 billion of $3.3 billion in prediction-market trading volume on the first Sunday of the 2026 season. That is a figure reported by the NFL, also attributed to its filing by the Associated Press; it is not presented here as an independently audited market measurement.
The NFL also warns that contracts tied to narrow events may create game-integrity risks. It points to wagers on individual plays and player injuries as examples it considers especially vulnerable to people with privileged information or the ability to influence the event. Those examples express the league’s concern; they do not establish that a particular contract was manipulated. The brief says: “Any delay from the Court will result in increasing consumer harm and risk to game integrity.”
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What safeguards does the NFL want?
The league contrasts safeguards it says are used by state-regulated sportsbooks and gaming authorities with practices it wants prediction-market operators and the CFTC to adopt. Its brief identifies:
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- Information sharing: access to official league data to support accurate contract settlement.
- Insider-trading monitoring: surveillance intended to deter trading based on material nonpublic information.
- An age minimum of 21: the NFL says 18-year-olds can trade on sports markets listed on DCMs, and it argues for a higher minimum.
The brief also cites a CFTC staffing figure of 543 employees, attributing it to the agency and using it to argue that the commission has broad responsibilities and limited capacity for event-contract oversight. That is the NFL’s staffing comparison and argument, not an independently verified assessment of the agency’s ability to supervise these markets.
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How do Kalshi, Polymarket and the CFTC respond?
Operators and the agency dispute the NFL’s account of federal oversight. In Associated Press reporting on October 8, Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the CFTC is actively policing sports-related markets, which she said are listed on nearly every U.S. commodities exchange. She described market integrity as a priority and pointed to partnerships with sports organizations.
A Polymarket spokesperson told the AP that the company shares the NFL’s commitment to preserving game integrity and is working toward “a harmonized federal framework.” Those are the companies’ stated positions, not a resolution of the statutory question before the courts.
CFTC spokesperson Brooke Nethercott told the AP: “It’s unfortunate the NFL declined to sign (a memorandum of understanding) with the CFTC which would’ve provided the league the ability to better discuss, cooperate, and exchange information with us to promote the integrity and resilience of prediction markets.” The statement indicates the agency says it offered a formal channel for cooperation; it complicates any suggestion that the NFL and CFTC have had no opportunity to communicate.
What happens next in the case?
The NFL is asking the Supreme Court to grant review; the brief does not mean the Court has agreed to hear the case. The sources reporting the October 8 filing do not report that the Court has granted the petition or decided the merits. Until there is a Supreme Court decision, the NFL’s position remains one side of a live dispute over statutory interpretation, state authority, and federal preemption.
For additional legal context, the September 2026 petition in Commodity Data Network Association v. Nevada, No. 26-344, describes the disagreement between the Third and Ninth Circuits. The NFL filing is the primary source for the league’s arguments and its stated concerns; Associated Press coverage reports responses from Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC.
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