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There is no universal winner. Restore native grassland where naturally open grassland or savanna belongs; plant trees where the site is degraded former forest or another ecosystem that historically supported trees. Planting trees on native grassland can reduce soil carbon, damage open-habitat biodiversity and reduce water availability, even when tree biomass increases.
Choose by ecosystem identity, then measure net carbon in soil, roots, vegetation, litter and deadwood alongside water, biodiversity and livelihood outcomes. Existing studies provide useful, site-specific evidence—not one globally valid annual removal rate.
What the comparison is really asking
“Grassland restoration versus tree planting for carbon” sounds like a contest between two technologies. It is better understood as a site-selection decision: which ecosystem belongs on this land, what was lost, and which outcomes must be maintained?
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Native grasslands and savannas store carbon below ground in roots and soil as well as in leaves and stems. Forests store substantial carbon in trunks, branches, roots, litter and soil. Converting one ecosystem to the other changes water flows, surface reflectance, evapotranspiration, habitat and livelihoods. A project that adds tree biomass can still produce a poor climate or restoration outcome if it causes a larger soil-carbon loss or destroys a functioning open ecosystem.
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The IPCC’s 2019 Climate Change and Land report says afforestation on native grassland can reduce soil-carbon stocks. Those losses may reduce or negate gains otherwise dominated by biomass, dead wood and litter. The IPCC also notes that forest and non-forest land differ in surface reflectance and evapotranspiration, so a tree-cover change is not automatically a net climate benefit.
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2022) similarly finds that increasing woody vegetation in grassy ecosystems may add some carbon but is expected to reduce biodiversity and water availability and alter services such as grazing and wood provision. Extensive tree planting on naturally grassy land can therefore create carbon, biodiversity and water losses at the same time.
Start with ecosystem identity and land history
When native grassland restoration is the grounded choice
Grassland restoration is generally the ecologically grounded path when the site is naturally open and its native plant community is adapted to local fire, grazing, rainfall and soils. Indicators include remnant native grasses or forbs, open-habitat wildlife, historical records showing grassland or savanna, and climate or soils that limit closed-canopy forest.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteRestoration should rebuild the native community rather than simply maximize plant cover. That can involve protecting recovering vegetation, controlling invasive plants, reintroducing locally appropriate perennial grasses and forbs, managing grazing, and using fire only where it is part of the historical regime. Seed source and species provenance matter: a prairie seed mix suitable for one region is not a universal prescription.
When tree restoration may fit
Tree planting can be appropriate on degraded land that was formerly forest or woodland, where native tree cover is supported by climate and soils and where natural regeneration is unlikely to recover without assistance. Former cropland, cleared forest and severely eroded sites may fit this pathway, but the baseline ecosystem must be established rather than assumed from current bare ground.
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Planting trees on land that merely looks degraded can misclassify a native grassland as a failed forest. Historical maps, pollen or charcoal records, local ecological knowledge, remnant species and landscape context can help distinguish the two.
Define “carbon removal” before comparing projects
The cited evidence primarily addresses carbon storage and sequestration in vegetation and soil. It does not provide a single standardized, head-to-head lifecycle comparison of native grassland restoration with tree planting. Do not present any one study’s rate as a universal annual removal figure.
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A credible inventory follows at least these pools:
- Soil organic carbon: measure depth, bulk density and concentration, not concentration alone. Report the 0–30 centimetre layer separately when that is the basis of a scenario, and include deeper soil where data allow.
- Roots: include fine and coarse roots; grassland carbon is often concentrated below ground.
- Above-ground biomass: count herbaceous vegetation and woody biomass, with species and age structure.
- Litter and dead wood: include fallen material and standing dead stems where relevant.
- Emissions and disturbances: account for site preparation, fertilizer, grazing changes, fire, harvesting, transport and leakage where they occur.
State the baseline, sampling depth, time period, uncertainty and permanence assumptions. A tonne of elemental carbon is not the same unit as a tonne of carbon dioxide. If a project converts between them, it must state the conversion and assumptions; the studies below report carbon, not a universal carbon-dioxide-removal rate.
What the evidence says about restored grasslands
Long-term biodiversity experiment
Yang and colleagues reported a 22-year experiment on abandoned agricultural land in Nature Communications (2019). During years 13–22, the treatment with the highest plant diversity reached an annual soil-carbon storage rate 200% greater than natural succession and 70% greater than monocultures at that site.
The authors associate the later-period gains with greater above-ground production, greater root biomass and complementary functions from multiple species, particularly C4 grasses and legumes. The result supports restoring diverse plant communities rather than relying on a single planted species.
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Transfer requires caution. More than 90% of the experimental soil was sand, organic matter was low, and the land had experienced herbicide use, some soil removal, plowing and disking. A wet clay prairie, a repeatedly burned savanna or a heavily grazed rangeland may show a different trajectory. The 200% and 70% comparisons are relative results for this experiment, not rates that can be applied globally.
FAO’s conditional grassland scenario
The Food and Agriculture Organization’s 2023 global assessment gives a scenario of 0.3 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year if available grasslands increase soil organic carbon in the top 0–30 centimetres by 0.3% after 20 years of management practices intended to enhance sequestration.
This is a conditional calculation, not a direct measurement of every grassland and not a comparison against trees. FAO highlights practical limits, including incentives for farmers and the difficulty of accurately monitoring soil-carbon stocks and changes. A project should therefore report measured changes and confidence intervals rather than claim the scenario value as an entitlement.
As FAO’s Animal Production and Health Division Director Thanawat Tiensin stated: “Assessing the current state of grassland systems and their potential to sequester carbon in the soil is key to better understand the benefits of grassland services for food security, biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation”.
Thirty years in Baringo, Kenya
A Scientific Reports study published in 2020 examined degraded grassland restoration and invasion by Prosopis juliflora in semi-arid Baringo, Kenya. The authors reported that 30 years of grassland restoration replenished soil organic carbon to one metre depth at 1.4% per year and restored herbaceous biomass to levels measured in pristine grassland.
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Plant biodiversity remained low after those three decades. That distinction matters: recovering biomass and soil carbon did not demonstrate full ecological restoration.
The same study found that Prosopis invasion increased soil carbon mainly in the upper 30 centimetres while suppressing herbaceous vegetation. The authors emphasize that outcomes of tree encroachment depend on prior land use, climate and species. This semi-arid case should not be generalized to all grasslands or treated as evidence that invasive woody cover is a restoration strategy.
How tree planting can underperform on native grassland
Afforestation can disturb soil and expose organic matter to decomposition. If the resulting soil-carbon loss is large, increased trunk and branch biomass may not produce a net gain. The IPCC specifically identifies this risk for afforestation of native grasslands.
Tree canopies also intercept rainfall and increase evapotranspiration. In water-limited landscapes, that can reduce streamflow or groundwater recharge and leave less water for herbaceous plants, livestock and downstream users. Darker or taller vegetation changes surface reflectance and energy exchange, so climate effects extend beyond the carbon ledger.
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Compare options across the outcomes that matter
| Decision axis | Questions to answer | Why it changes the result |
|---|---|---|
| Ecosystem identity | Was the site naturally grassland, savanna, woodland or forest? What does historical evidence show? | Planting trees on native grassland can trigger soil-carbon, biodiversity and water losses. |
| Land-use history | Was it abandoned cropland, cleared forest, overgrazed rangeland or an intact open ecosystem? | Prior disturbance affects recovery potential, baseline carbon and appropriate intervention. |
| Carbon pools | Are soil, roots, herbaceous biomass, woody biomass, litter and dead wood all measured? | Counting only tree biomass can hide soil or below-ground losses. |
| Permanence | What happens under drought, fire, pests, invasive species, grazing shifts or harvesting? | Stored carbon can be reversed; grassland and forest have different disturbance risks. |
| Water | How will evapotranspiration, infiltration, groundwater and streamflow change? | Woody cover can reduce water availability in grassy ecosystems. |
| Biodiversity | Which native species and open-habitat specialists are targets? | More plant biomass does not guarantee recovery of native diversity. |
| People and services | How will grazing, forage, fuelwood, shade, pollination and access change? | Projects can create local costs or benefits unrelated to carbon totals. |
| Monitoring | Is there a baseline, replicated sampling, a stated depth and a long-term plan? | Soil-carbon changes are difficult to detect without consistent methods and time. |
A practical site-selection workflow
- Document the reference ecosystem. Compile historical vegetation maps, aerial imagery, local knowledge, remnant species and soil or climate evidence. Record uncertainty instead of forcing a forest-versus-grassland label.
- Describe the disturbance. Map cultivation, erosion, grazing pressure, fire exclusion, invasive plants, drainage and previous tree cover. Establish a defensible baseline before intervention.
- Set a restoration target. Specify native species, structural conditions, acceptable woody cover, grazing or fire regime, and habitat objectives. “More green cover” is not a sufficient target.
- Model all carbon pools. Sample soil at documented depths, measure bulk density, estimate roots and herbaceous biomass, and inventory woody biomass, litter and dead wood where present. Include project emissions and plausible reversals.
- Test water and livelihood effects. Use local hydrology and seasonal observations to evaluate infiltration, streamflow, groundwater and forage. Consult land users before changing grazing or access.
- Choose the least-disruptive intervention. Natural regeneration or protection may outperform planting. On native grassland, prioritize native vegetation recovery; on former forest, use locally appropriate native trees and allow mixed regeneration.
- Install monitoring before work starts. Establish permanent plots, photograph points and soil sampling locations. Include untreated or natural-regeneration comparisons where feasible.
- Review and adapt. Set thresholds for invasive spread, declining herbaceous cover, falling water availability or failed regeneration. Change management when indicators cross those thresholds rather than defending the original planting choice.
Monitoring that can distinguish real gains
Soil measurements
Use the same sampling season, locations, depths and laboratory methods over time. Report carbon stock per area using concentration, bulk density and layer thickness. Sampling only shallow soil can miss deeper gains or losses; the Baringo study measured to one metre, while the FAO scenario concerns 0–30 centimetres.
Vegetation and biodiversity
Record species identity, cover, height, above-ground biomass and functional groups. Track native richness and abundance, not just total biomass. Include open-habitat birds, invertebrates or other locally important taxa when they are part of the restoration objective.
Water and services
Measure seasonal streamflow or groundwater where feasible, and record soil moisture, infiltration, grazing days, forage production and access. A carbon increase accompanied by persistent water or livelihood losses is not an uncomplicated success.
Risk and permanence
Map fire, drought, flood, pest, invasive-species and grazing risks. Report how much carbon could be released under each disturbance and what management or reserve mechanism addresses reversal. Long-lived storage requires a longer monitoring horizon than the first few productive seasons.
Common mistakes and how to correct them
- “Trees always remove more carbon.” Correct the comparison by including soil, roots, litter, dead wood and project emissions, then test whether trees belong on the site.
- Using the FAO scenario as a guaranteed rate. Label 0.3 tonnes C/ha/year as the conditional 2023 scenario for a 0.3% increase in 0–30 centimetre soil carbon after 20 years, not as a universal observation.
- Generalizing the Yang experiment. Report the 200% and 70% relative results with the site’s sandy, disturbed soil conditions and 22-year duration.
- Equating biomass recovery with restoration. The Baringo case recovered herbaceous biomass and soil carbon while plant biodiversity stayed low. Measure multiple outcomes.
- Counting only the topsoil. State sampling depth and include deeper layers when the project’s ecology or claims require it.
- Ignoring water and habitat. Assess evapotranspiration, streamflow, groundwater, grazing and open-habitat species before approving woody expansion.
- Planting a generic seed mix. Select locally native species and provenance suited to the site; no single commercial mix fits every region.
- Assuming permanence. Include drought, fire, pests, invasive plants and management changes in the risk plan and monitoring budget.
How to interpret a project claim
Ask for the reference ecosystem, baseline date, intervention map, carbon pools, sampling depths, measurement methods, uncertainty, monitoring duration and treatment of reversals. A credible claim should explain whether a number is measured, modeled or conditional and identify its geographic and ecological limits.
For example, “1.4% annual soil-carbon replenishment” should be accompanied by the Baringo location, 30-year restoration period and one-metre depth, along with the finding that biodiversity remained low. “200% more storage” should identify the Yang experiment’s years 13–22, high-diversity treatment and sandy abandoned farmland. “0.3 tonnes C/ha/year” should identify FAO’s 2023 20-year, 0–30-centimetre scenario.
Quick Recap
Decision checklist
- Does the site naturally support open grassland or savanna?
- Is there evidence it was formerly forest or woodland?
- Have soil, roots, herbaceous biomass, woody biomass, litter and dead wood been considered?
- Are water, biodiversity, grazing and other services explicit objectives?
- Is the carbon number measured at this site, or is it a modeled scenario?
- Does the baseline include prior land use and existing carbon?
- Are disturbance risks, reversals and monitoring costs funded for the full time horizon?
- Can the project demonstrate ecological recovery rather than only more biomass?
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