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NASA has ruled out asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032. The widely reported 4.3% lunar-impact estimate was a temporary NASA estimate from June 2025; observations made with the James Webb Space Telescope in February 2026 refined the asteroid’s orbit and predicted a safe lunar miss.
What NASA’s latest update says
NASA’s March 5, 2026 update says 2024 YR4 will pass the Moon rather than strike it. The predicted distance is 13,200 miles (21,200 km) from the lunar surface. NASA based the revised orbit on two additional James Webb Space Telescope observations collected on Feb. 18 and Feb. 26, 2026.
NASA also concluded that the asteroid poses no significant risk of hitting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, or during the next century. The Moon estimate and the Earth estimate are separate: an object can have a possible close approach to one body without being on course to hit another.
How the odds changed
Impact probabilities shifted as astronomers collected observations and narrowed the range of possible orbits. The figures below refer to different targets and dated assessments, not competing estimates of one unchanged risk.
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- 【Solar System】: DIY your own sun earth moon orbital rotation model with this creative kit. Seasonal plate that shows the names, order, and dates of the four seasons and the twenty-four solar terms in the traditional Chinese calendar. night, seasons, solar eclipse, lunar eclipse and moon phases .
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- 【Easy to Assemble 】: Updated Instruction 1)Wrench the connecting nut to the seasonal plate; 2) Insert the axe to the slot, put the two screws to the corresponding holes, then tighten the screws; 3) Get the “solar system” aligned correctly: Set the handle with the pointer on the summer solstice, adjust the position of the Earth so that the sun shines directly on its Tropic of Cancer; 4)Assemble the gears upper and underneath with the black peg;Put the sun’s metal wire in the hole on the lever.
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| Date and source | Target and reported assessment |
|---|---|
| Jan. 31, 2025 — NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) | For an Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032, the probability exceeded 1%; CNEOS placed the asteroid at Torino Scale 3 in that assessment. |
| Before Feb. 25, 2025 — European Space Agency (ESA) | ESA reported that its estimated Earth-impact probability had reached as high as 2.8% before additional observations reduced it. |
| Feb. 25, 2025 — ESA | ESA’s Earth-impact estimate was 0.001%, and it downgraded the asteroid from Torino Scale 3 to Level 0. |
| June 5, 2025 — NASA/CNEOS, using James Webb Space Telescope data | For a lunar impact on Dec. 22, 2032, NASA raised the estimate from 3.8% to 4.3%. NASA said the Webb data improved knowledge of the asteroid’s position by nearly 20%. |
| March 5, 2026 — NASA/CNEOS, using two February 2026 Webb observations | NASA ruled out a lunar impact and predicted a pass 13,200 miles (21,200 km) from the Moon. |
The 4.3% figure meant that, under the orbit estimate available in June 2025, NASA assessed a small chance of a lunar collision. It was not a final forecast. The later measurements changed the orbit estimate enough to eliminate that possibility.
Why a small asteroid’s predicted path can change
After discovery, astronomers infer an asteroid’s orbit from its observed positions over time. Early observations cover only part of its path, leaving a range of possible future positions. As more measurements become available, the range narrows; a probability can rise or fall as the possible paths are recalculated. A changed probability does not mean the asteroid has suddenly changed direction.
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- PAINT YOUR OWN MOON LAMP CRAFT KIT: Everything kids need to paint and personalize their own glowing moon lamp in one set. This 20+ piece craft kit includes a paintable moon lamp (5.6" diameter), wooden base, apron, 12 paints, palette, 3 sponge sticks, and 2 brushes for an easy, ready-to-create experience.
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NASA discovered 2024 YR4 on Dec. 27, 2024, through the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. NASA CNEOS estimated its size at 40–90 meters (130–300 feet). ESA said an asteroid of this size could cause severe damage to a local region if it hit Earth. That description helps explain the early attention, but it does not imply an Earth impact is expected.
Could 2024 YR4 hit Earth?
No significant Earth-impact risk remains for the Dec. 22, 2032 encounter, according to NASA’s March 2026 update, which also says there is no significant Earth-impact risk through the next century. Earlier concern concerned Earth, not the Moon: ESA’s probability for an Earth impact fell to 0.001% in its Feb. 25, 2025 assessment, and it moved the object to Torino Scale Level 0.
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- HOBBY MODEL KIT – Unassembled model packed in an envelope with easy to follow instructions. Ideal for ages 14 and up.
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- PREMIUM SERIES ARTEMIS MOON ROCKET - 3.50 Sheet Model with a Challenging difficulty level. Once assembled, dimensions are 3.30 L x 2.88 W x 7.40 H inches. 115 Pieces. 1:522 Scale.
- FROM STEEL SHEETS TO 3D – Pop out the pieces and connect using tabs and holes. Includes illustrated instructions
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The Torino Scale is a way to communicate the hazard posed by a near-Earth object, combining impact probability with potential consequences. Its level can change as an orbit becomes better constrained. The earlier Level 3 assessment and subsequent Level 0 assessment describe ESA’s changing Earth-risk evaluation in 2025; they do not describe the later lunar estimate.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What happens when the asteroid returns in 2028?
NASA expected another opportunity to observe 2024 YR4 when it returns near Earth in 2028. CNEOS says that passage has no chance of an Earth impact. The close approach is useful because additional observations can improve astronomers’ knowledge of the orbit; it is not a prediction that the asteroid will hit Earth.
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Best Value
- 【About lights and stand】Sound activated Led lights set and acylic stand are included in the 3D puzzle package. The acrylic stand of the 3D puzzle will be more beautiful if you peel off the film at the surface.
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- DIY your own sun earth moon orbital planetarium model with this creative kit. This three dimensional model represents the earths changing position with regard to the sun and the moon
- Model equipped with a light that is located inside of the sun to show the effect that sunlight has and the moon
- Great for Geology & Teaching, School project, also Great for your children, it cultivates childrens interest in space science. Earth orbiting around the sun, and moon orbiting showing planetary
- Mounted on a sturdy base, which is labeled with each month of the year, allowing learners to explore the relative positions of the earth both monthly and seasonally
- Sun-earth-moon model can demonstrate the rotation of the Earth, the change of day and night in the same place, the change of day and night at the same time and so on. Let students learn astronomy knowledge by operating this model. Funny educational model for you to choose!
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