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Mumbai’s citywide AQI was reported at 110 on Friday, October 2, 2026, up from 79 on Thursday, according to Hindustan Times on October 3. Under the Central Pollution Control Board ranges cited in that report, 110 is “moderate.” A possible worsening of winter pollution has been raised as a forecast concern—not established as an outcome caused by El Niño.
What does an AQI of 110 mean in Mumbai?
The October 3 report places 110 in the CPCB “moderate” band, which runs from 101 to 200. Its category scale is:
| AQI range | Category |
|---|---|
| 0–50 | Good |
| 51–100 | Satisfactory |
| 101–200 | Moderate |
| 201–300 | Poor |
| 301–400 | Very poor |
| 401–500 | Severe |
The reported 110 is a dated citywide figure, not a long-term average or a forecast. It also does not mean that every neighborhood had an AQI of 110. Hindustan Times listed Worli at 180, Navy Nagar at 145, Deonar at 142 and Ghatkopar at 137; the report did not provide the underlying timestamp, pollutant composition or averaging method for those readings. Hindustan Times’ report is the source for the figures.
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Gufran Beig, chair professor at the National Institute of Advanced Studies of the Indian Institute of Science, warned that winter pollution could worsen. He said a very strong El Niño could slow winds and reduce the dispersion of pollutants, and argued that winter impacts deserve attention. This is an attributed forecast based on a proposed weather mechanism; it is not a measured El Niño effect on Mumbai’s AQI.
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Slower winds could, in principle, leave pollutants less dispersed, but the cited material does not quantify how much Mumbai’s air would change or when. No city-specific AQI projection attributable to El Niño is established in these sources.
Is “Super El Niño” an official category?
No. The Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences said in a parliamentary answer on July 30, 2026, that neither the World Meteorological Organization nor India’s Meteorological Department has an officially defined “Super El Niño” category. Official classifications use weak, moderate, strong and very strong. The ministry also said conditions were weak in June and moderate in July, with further strengthening possible in October–December. The Ministry’s answer, published by the Press Information Bureau, notes that India’s impacts depend on evolving ocean-atmosphere conditions and other factors.
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WMO likewise says “super El Niño” is not part of its operational classification system and is not used in official products. El Niño’s effects vary with its strength, duration, season and interaction with other climate patterns, including the Indian Ocean Dipole. WMO’s June 2026 explanation cautions that impacts are not determined by the label alone.
What do the official El Niño outlooks say?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on September 10, 2026, that El Niño was strengthening. Its discussion gave a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. It also assigned a 75% chance of a “historic” event during October–December 2026, defining that threshold as a three-month RONI value of at least +2.5°C. NOAA noted that impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely at that magnitude, not guaranteed. These are climate-event probabilities, not probabilities or predictions for a particular Mumbai AQI. NOAA’s dated diagnostic discussion provides the outlook.
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India’s monsoon outlook is separate from Mumbai’s winter air quality. A May 29, 2026, national forecast put June–September rainfall at 90% of the long-period average, with ±4% model error, and gave an 84% probability of below-normal or deficient rain. Those figures describe a national rainfall forecast; they do not predict Mumbai pollution levels. The forecast was published by the Press Information Bureau.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Where to check local air-quality information
For current local readings and health guidance, use official air-quality information and public-health resources rather than treating a dated news report as a real-time alert. The National Centre for Disease Control lists information tools including SAFAR, SAMEER and PRANA, along with air-pollution and health guidance: NCDC’s climate change and health resources.
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