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Texas is one of the country’s largest and fastest-growing economies, but the evidence does not establish it as America’s single “economic center of gravity.” Preliminary federal estimates put the state’s 2025 current-dollar GDP at $2.9 trillion and its real growth at 2.5%. Those figures show scale and expansion—not a definitive national ranking across every measure of economic influence.
What the latest figures say about Texas
The Office of the Texas Governor reported on April 17, 2026, that preliminary U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates put Texas’s 2025 current-dollar GDP at $2.9 trillion. Current-dollar GDP measures the value of economic output using prices for that year; it is a measure of size, not inflation-adjusted growth. The same announcement reported 2.5% real economic growth in 2025, which accounts for inflation. The Governor’s Office release also calculated that Texas’s economy expanded 46% in inflation-adjusted terms from 2015 to the end of 2025; that retrospective figure is the state’s calculation.
Population adds context to the state’s scale. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated Texas had 31,709,821 residents on July 1, 2025, up 8.8% from the April 1, 2020 estimates base. These are population estimates, not a new census count. They do not show that output per resident or every household’s financial position improved. The Census Bureau’s Texas QuickFacts table provides the estimate and its comparison base.
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Does that make Texas the country’s economic center?
Not by itself. “Center of gravity” is a metaphor unless the speaker defines a measurable indicator—such as total GDP, real growth, employment, population, headquarters, or financial activity. Each describes a different dimension of an economy, and a large total does not necessarily mean the strongest growth rate or the best outcomes for the typical resident.
Nor was Texas the only state growing in 2025. The BEA reported positive real GDP growth in all 50 states that year, ranging from 0.3% in North Dakota to 3.1% in South Carolina and Florida. Texas’s 2.5% real growth is substantial, but that comparison does not put it at the top of the state growth range. The BEA’s 2025 state GDP release gives the national context.
The phrase “economic center of gravity” also appeared in a low-confidence October 4, 2026 search result under the name CNCB News, which attributed it to Jeb Hensarling. That result is not sufficient evidence for claims about a Texas Stock Exchange, company listings, or financial backing. The official economic figures cited here establish the state’s scale and growth, not those claims or a shift of U.S. financial activity to Texas.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to judge claims that Texas is rising
Ask what is being compared, over what period, and using which measure. A useful comparison keeps each axis separate:
- Economic size: Compare total current-dollar GDP for the same year. It captures nominal output, not how quickly an economy grew after inflation.
- Real growth: Compare inflation-adjusted GDP over the same period. A growth rate is not a measure of total economic size.
- Population: Check the estimate date and baseline. More residents indicate population growth, not necessarily higher output or income per person.
- Resident outcomes: Look at per-capita output or income rather than relying on statewide totals alone.
- Employment or finance: Require a specific labor or financial-activity measure and a comparable period; the figures above do not establish a ranking on either axis.
The figures discussed here describe 2025. The Texas announcement labels the GDP estimates preliminary, and later BEA releases can supersede earlier data. The BEA’s September 30, 2026 release covered second-quarter 2026 GDP and state GDP and personal income tables, with a notice that the data would be superseded by later releases. Consult the BEA release and its linked tables for the data vintage relevant to a newer comparison.
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