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Satellite measurements suggest that Masaya Volcano in Nicaragua may have two active magma-storage zones: a deeper source beneath its caldera and a much shallower source beneath Santiago crater. The study inferred these reservoirs from patterns of ground movement; it did not directly image magma underground, and it does not predict an imminent eruption.
What did researchers find beneath Masaya?
A study published in Geophysical Research Letters on July 23, 2026, used satellite radar measurements to model two distinct sources of ground deformation at Masaya. The authors call the deeper source the Masaya Central Reservoir (MCR). Their preferred model places it beneath the caldera at about 3.2 kilometers deep. A second, shallower source lies beneath Santiago crater at about 200 meters deep.
These are inferred reservoirs, not chambers that satellites photographed or researchers directly observed. The model links measured changes at the surface to likely changes in underground sources. The deeper MCR is better characterized; the shallower Santiago source is inferred from localized, persistent deflation.
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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstall| Inferred source | Approximate location and depth | Surface-deformation pattern in the study | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Masaya Central Reservoir (MCR) | Beneath the caldera, about 3.2 km deep | About 3 cm of line-of-sight displacement away from the satellite from 2018 to mid-2022; the broader signal then shifted toward the satellite through February 2024 | Deflation followed by likely renewed inflation |
| Santiago crater-area source | Beneath Santiago crater, about 200 m deep | Continued localized deflation over the study window | A second, shallower modeled source that continued to lose volume |
The depths and interpretations come from the authors’ geodetic model, not a direct measurement of magma. The roughly 3 cm figure is specifically line-of-sight displacement, the component of ground movement measured along the satellite’s viewing direction; it is not a claim that the ground moved vertically by 3 cm. Read the study in Geophysical Research Letters.
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How did satellites detect the possible reservoirs?
The researchers analyzed Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series. InSAR compares radar observations taken at different times to estimate how the ground surface has shifted along the satellite’s line of sight. Scientists then use geodetic models to test what underground sources could plausibly produce the observed deformation.
The study’s main analysis covers January 2018 through February 2024. It found different deformation patterns near the central caldera and Santiago crater, which the authors interpreted as evidence for two sources rather than a single source behaving uniformly. InSAR measures surface displacement; it does not detect magma directly, and the inferred depth and behavior depend on the model used to explain those measurements.
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What changed around 2022?
From 2018 to mid-2022, the central-caldera signal showed about 3 cm of movement away from the satellite along its line of sight. The authors interpret this as continued deflation of the deeper MCR. From mid-2022 through February 2024, the broader MCR signal shifted toward the satellite, which they interpret as likely renewed inflation and magma supply from depth.
The Santiago crater area kept deflating throughout the study window, including after the deeper source’s signal changed. That contrast is central to the two-reservoir interpretation: the modeled deeper source shifted from deflation toward inflation, while the shallow crater-area source continued to deflate.
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The paper’s discussion refers to a time-series extension through April 2026, but the core analysis window reported for the study is January 2018 to February 2024. The 2022 shift should therefore be understood as a feature of the analyzed deformation record, not as a real-time statement about Masaya’s present condition.
Does a second reservoir mean Masaya is about to erupt?
No. The study presents a more detailed model of magma storage and deformation, not a forecast that an eruption is imminent. Ground inflation can be consistent with magma entering or pressurizing a source, and deflation can be consistent with magma draining away, but those are interpretations of deformation—not direct readings of magma movement or a stand-alone eruption prediction. Gizmodo’s report on the study says the researchers found no imminent threat in the result.
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The finding also does not explain why Masaya shifts between effusive activity, such as lava flows, and explosive eruptions. The authors say longer-term geodetic observations and modeling are needed to better understand those transitions and improve hazard monitoring.
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Masaya is a basaltic shield volcano and complex caldera system with an active vent at Santiago crater. The 2026 study reports that about 2 million people live within 20 kilometers of the volcano. That is a proximity estimate, not a statement that everyone in that area has the same level of exposure.
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The paper also describes persistent degassing and a history of large explosive eruptions; it notes that the last major lava flow was in 1772. Persistent sulfur dioxide is a known hazard, but it is distinct from the newly modeled deformation pattern and should not be mistaken for evidence that this study identified an immediate eruption threat. The authors present improved understanding of the volcano’s plumbing as a potential aid to future monitoring, not a substitute for official hazard information.
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