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Ireland’s annual inflation rate was estimated at 3.9% in September 2026, up from 3.4% in August, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO). Energy prices rose sharply, but the CSO’s flash release does not quantify how much energy contributed to the overall rate. The September figures are provisional HICP estimates; final results are scheduled for 8 October 2026.
What does the 3.9% inflation figure mean?
The 3.9% figure is the estimated change in Ireland’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12 months to September 2026. It does not mean every product became 3.9% more expensive, or that every household experienced the same increase. HICP tracks price changes across a representative consumer basket.
The CSO also estimated that the overall HICP rose 0.2% between August and September. The annual rate compares prices with September 2025; the monthly rate compares September with August 2026. They measure different periods and should not be read interchangeably. CSO: September 2026 flash HICP release.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteHow much did energy prices rise?
The CSO estimated energy prices increased 2.9% during September and were 15.3% higher than a year earlier. That sharp rise is important context for the headline figure, but the release does not state how many percentage points energy added to the 3.9% annual HICP rate. It is therefore accurate to say energy prices rose alongside the acceleration in inflation, not that the CSO measured a specific energy contribution.
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Kate English, chief economist at Deloitte Ireland, told the Irish Examiner that volatile global energy markets were reflected in the latest figures. Her comments are expert interpretation, separate from the CSO’s measured category changes. Irish Examiner: report on September inflation.
What happened to prices in other categories?
The CSO’s flash estimates show that price movements differed by category:
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| Category or measure | Estimated change | Period |
|---|---|---|
| All-items HICP | +3.9% | 12 months to September 2026 |
| All-items HICP | +0.2% | August to September 2026 |
| Energy | +15.3% | 12 months to September 2026 |
| Energy | +2.9% | August to September 2026 |
| Services | +4.1% | 12 months to September 2026 |
| HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food | +2.8% | 12 months to September 2026 |
| Food excluding alcohol and tobacco | +0.3% | 12 months to September 2026 |
| Food excluding alcohol and tobacco | 0.0% | August to September 2026 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | +0.9% | 12 months to September 2026 |
The figures are CSO flash estimates for Ireland’s HICP. The measure excluding energy and unprocessed food gives a view of price changes without those categories, but it is not the same as the all-items rate or a measure of any one household’s costs. The release does not establish that higher energy prices have already fed through to food prices. English discussed a possible lag in fuel-related costs, citing Central Bank of Ireland estimates; that is attributed commentary, not a forecast or finding in the flash release.
Is 3.9% Ireland’s CPI inflation rate?
No. The September 3.9% figure is HICP, not CPI. HICP is harmonised to make inflation statistics more comparable across EU countries. The CSO describes CPI as Ireland’s official inflation measure. Its finalized August 2026 release reported annual CPI inflation of 3.7% and annual HICP inflation of 3.4%. Those August figures are for two different indices, so the 3.7% CPI figure should not be treated as the preceding month’s value in the September HICP series. CSO: August 2026 CPI release.
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Are the September figures final?
No. The September numbers are flash estimates and may be revised when the CSO publishes the final HICP results. The CSO scheduled the final September HICP results and CPI release for 8 October 2026. Until then, 3.9% is the provisional annual HICP estimate, not a finalized result.
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