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BNP Paribas analyst Kumar Rakesh expects large-cap Indian IT-services companies to post less than 1% organic revenue growth in the September quarter, according to Moneycontrol’s October 6, 2026 report. He attributed the forecast to the usual seasonal recovery failing to appear. This is an analyst forecast—not reported company results, a confirmed guidance change or verified sector consensus.
What is the Q2 forecast for Indian IT companies?
Rakesh’s reported call is for below 1% organic revenue growth among large-cap Indian IT-services firms in the September quarter. The report uses “Q2” but does not specify a fiscal-year label, so the forecast is best identified by the quarter rather than assigned a fiscal year.
The stated reason is that the sector’s usual seasonal recovery did not materialize. The figures and explanation come from Moneycontrol’s AI-assisted live blog, which reported on a CNBC-TV18 interview; the underlying BNP Paribas note and interview transcript were not available in the cited account. Read Moneycontrol’s October 6, 2026 report.
What changes did BNP Paribas reportedly expect for Infosys and HCL Technologies?
Moneycontrol reported that BNP Paribas expected the midpoint of Infosys’s organic revenue guidance to be reduced by 25 basis points and HCL Technologies’ midpoint by 100 basis points. These were the analyst’s expectations as reported at the time, not confirmed company updates.
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HCL Technologies’ expected guidance was also described as beginning to incorporate acquisitions. That distinction matters: organic growth excludes acquisition effects, while reported growth can include them. The two measures should not be treated as interchangeable when assessing whether business performance is improving.
What did the analyst’s valuation comments mean?
Low growth and earnings multiples
Rakesh said that growth near 1% could correspond to a valuation of around 12 times one-year forward earnings for companies such as TCS and Infosys. Moneycontrol’s account does not provide the valuation model or calculation details, so this is an attributed illustration rather than a verified valuation benchmark.
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Nifty IT levels and growth assumptions
In the report’s conditional framing, a Nifty IT level of 26,000 was associated with roughly 1% growth—characterized as no real growth. Higher index levels, he said, would imply expectations of approximately 2–3 percentage points of growth. These are assumptions used to discuss valuation, not a validated index target or a forecast that the index will reach a particular level.
Tech Mahindra and peer comparisons
Rakesh described Tech Mahindra as a strong alpha play and discussed its premium relative to peers. His comparison put large-cap valuations in the context of a period when peers delivered around 5–6% growth. He cautioned that comparing Tech Mahindra with peers producing little organic growth may not be an apples-to-apples exercise: “The other large cap peers are hardly delivering any organic growth and hence this comparison is not exactly the right way to look at it.” Moneycontrol attributes that statement to Rakesh; it should not be treated as a transcript-verified quotation.
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How should investors interpret the forecast?
The report offers an analyst’s view of expected growth and valuation, not an individualized investment recommendation. Its implications depend on whether the forecast is borne out, how companies report organic versus acquisition-included growth, and what results and guidance say when released.
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- For actual September-quarter performance, use the companies’ official earnings releases or filings rather than treating this forecast as a result.
- When comparing growth, check whether a figure is organic or includes acquisitions, particularly for HCL Technologies.
- Read the valuation comments as conditional scenarios: the report gives no detailed model to reproduce or independently validate the multiples and index-level assumptions.
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