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IDC forecasts worldwide PC shipments will fall 11.3% in 2026 while PC average selling prices rise 18.3%. Tariffs are part of the risk, but IDC identifies a persistent memory shortage as the main pressure: higher DRAM, NAND and storage costs are squeezing supply and raising manufacturers’ costs. If you need a laptop computer soon, compare suitable models now; waiting could mean higher prices or fewer choices, while upgrading an existing PC may be a practical alternative.
What changed in IDC’s PC outlook?
In its June 8, 2026 outlook, IDC forecasts an 11.3% decline in worldwide PC shipments for the full year and an 18.3% increase in PC average selling prices. IDC says shipment declines could deepen through the year, reaching 20% year over year in Q4. These are forecasts, not final sales results.
The weak full-year outlook comes after a stronger first quarter. IDC reported 103.3 million combined PC-and-tablet shipments in Q1 2026, up 2.8% year over year. PCs alone accounted for 65.6 million shipments, up 3%. IDC says buyers and businesses brought purchases forward because they expected price increases and limited availability. That pull-forward helped Q1, but it can leave fewer purchases for later quarters.
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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteIDC also cited 17% PC average-selling-price growth in a separate 2026 commentary. That differs from the 18.3% figure in its June 8 outlook. IDC pages published at different times can reflect different assumptions, so the figures should be treated as separate forecast updates, not combined into one number.
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Are tariffs the reason PC prices may rise?
Tariffs are a risk, but the outlook does not establish them as the sole or primary cause of the expected price increase. IDC identifies a persistent memory shortage as the main driver of the downgrade. Higher prices for DRAM, NAND and storage raise the cost of the components PC makers use, putting pressure on retail prices and on which configurations manufacturers can supply.
Tariff uncertainty adds another complication. The possibility that duties or exemptions could change may prompt companies to ship products early, while supply-chain disruption and freight costs can add further pressure to end prices. The net effect for a buyer depends on the product, seller and timing; the forecast is for the PC market overall, not a guaranteed increase for every model or retailer.
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Should you buy now, wait or upgrade?
IDC’s forecast is market-wide; it cannot tell you whether a particular laptop computer is a good deal today. Make the choice around your need date, the full price of a suitable configuration and whether your current PC can handle your workload.
| Option | More suitable when | What to weigh |
|---|---|---|
| Buy now | You need a PC soon, or have found a suitable model in stock. | Compare the total price, memory and storage configuration, warranty and support. A purchase now can avoid the risk of later price or availability pressure, but it does not guarantee a lower price than every future listing. |
| Wait | Your current PC remains adequate and you can defer spending. | You accept the possibility of higher prices, reduced availability or less choice in memory and storage configurations before conditions stabilize. |
| Upgrade | Your current PC still meets your needs apart from limited memory or storage. | Check component compatibility, warranty terms, and whether the CPU, thermals and operating-system support are adequate for the system’s expected life. |
Compare like with like: a lower-priced base model may have less memory or storage than the configuration you need. For a laptop, also check whether memory or storage can be upgraded at all. For a desktop PC, confirm the specific component is compatible before buying it. A RAM upgrade can extend a machine’s usefulness, but it cannot resolve limitations elsewhere in the system.
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Are AI PCs worth waiting for?
IDC expects AI-PC adoption to strengthen as the ecosystem matures. In earlier tariff-related coverage, it forecast that most new PCs could be GenAI-capable by 2026, following a more robust ecosystem later in 2025. That was a forecast, not a guarantee that every PC will offer the same capabilities or that every workload will benefit.
If you have a specific AI application in mind, check its requirements and whether it needs local processing before choosing a PC for AI features. If you mainly use a computer for office work, web browsing, gaming or creative tasks, judge a candidate by how well its actual configuration serves those needs rather than by an AI label alone.
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What the forecast means for your purchase
IDC’s outlook points to a tougher PC market in 2026: a shipment decline alongside higher average selling prices, with memory costs at the center and tariff uncertainty adding risk. For buyers, the useful response is not to assume every PC will rise by the forecast amount. Decide when you need a computer, compare the complete configurations available to you, and consider whether a compatible upgrade can postpone replacement without compromising the work you need to do.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
