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The forecast cone and the wind-field map answer different questions. The cone shows uncertainty in the future location of a tropical cyclone’s center. The wind-field map shows where sustained tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds could extend, based on the wind radii in the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) Forecast/Advisory.
Neither graphic is a complete impact map or a personal safety forecast. A location inside the cone is not guaranteed to receive strong winds, and a location outside it can still experience dangerous conditions. Use the appropriate map for the question you are asking, then check point-specific wind probabilities and official watches or warnings for decisions about your location.
What does the hurricane forecast cone show?
The forecast cone represents uncertainty in the predicted track of a tropical cyclone’s center. It is not the outline of the storm, the area that will receive wind, or the complete area that could experience impacts.
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On the operational NHC graphic, forecast positions are plotted at set lead times. A circle is placed around each position, and the circles are joined to form the cone. The circle radius is calculated from official track-error statistics: NHC chooses a radius that contains about two-thirds of historical errors in a five-year sample. The resulting shape is an uncertainty envelope around the center forecast, not a statement that every point inside it has the same chance of being hit.
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The NHC definition of the track forecast cone explains the method and lists the radii used for the 2026 Atlantic and Eastern/Central Pacific operational cones. Those radii are measures of forecast uncertainty, not measurements of storm size or wind-field width.
What the cone can tell you
- How far the forecast center could plausibly be from the displayed track at a given forecast time.
- How uncertainty grows with forecast lead time.
- Which general areas should monitor updates because the center’s eventual path is not yet settled.
What the cone cannot tell you
- Where tropical-storm-force or hurricane-force winds will occur.
- How far rainfall, storm surge, tornadoes, or other hazards will extend.
- The probability that your entire community, or even a particular point, will remain inside the cone.
- A sharp boundary between safe and dangerous conditions.
NHC’s product guidance emphasizes the reason for these limits: “It is important to remember that tropical cyclones are not a point.” The center is only one part of a system whose winds and other hazards can spread far beyond the center-track uncertainty area.
How the operational cone is built
Circles based on historical track errors
For each forecast lead time, NHC uses the distribution of its previous official center-track errors. The operational cone uses circles based on the 67th percentile of absolute track errors over the preceding five years. In practical terms, roughly two out of three historical errors at an individual forecast time fell within the corresponding circle.
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The five-year sample is updated as the operational statistics change. For the 2026 season, NHC uses 2021–2025 official forecast-error statistics for the Atlantic and Eastern/Central Pacific basins.
2026 operational cone radii
| Forecast lead time | Atlantic radius | Eastern and Central Pacific radius | What the figure represents |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 39 nautical miles | 37 nautical miles | Uncertainty radius around the forecast center at 24 hours |
| 120 hours | 200 nautical miles | 138 nautical miles | Uncertainty radius around the forecast center at five days |
These are 2026 cone-construction radii derived from 2021–2025 errors. They are not estimates of how large the storm’s wind field will be. A large hurricane can have a relatively narrow center uncertainty, while a smaller system can still produce serious local hazards.
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Why a full path is not a simple two-thirds probability
The individual circles and the statement that they contain about two-thirds of historical errors describe related but different quantities. NHC’s interactive cone guidance says the full five-day center path has remained inside the cone about 60–70% of the time historically. That full-path frequency is not the same as saying every point inside the cone has a 60–70% chance of experiencing the storm, nor is it identical to the two-thirds statistic applied separately at each forecast point. Treat the figures as measures of forecast performance and uncertainty, not as a local impact probability.
What does the wind-field map show?
The Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Field graphic maps the potential geographic extent of sustained wind thresholds around the storm. NHC displays areas potentially affected by sustained tropical-storm-force winds in orange and hurricane-force winds in red. The shapes come from the wind radii in the latest Forecast/Advisory.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchA wind radius is the maximum distance from the center at which a specified sustained-wind threshold may occur in a particular quadrant. Because each quadrant can have a different radius, the shaded field is often asymmetric rather than a circle.
Why shading is not a guarantee
The radii describe maximum possible extents by quadrant. A shaded location therefore may fall within the maximum radius without actually experiencing the threshold wind. NHC explicitly cautions that “not all locations falling within the orange or red shaded areas will be experiencing sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively.” Local terrain, storm structure, timing, and forecast error all affect conditions at a specific point.
The wind-field graphic also represents the advisory’s forecast situation; it is not a cumulative map showing every place that could receive those winds over the entire life of the cyclone. Check the advisory time and update the graphic as new forecasts are issued.
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Forecast cone vs. wind-field map: the difference at a glance
| Reader’s question | Best graphic | What it maps | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Where might the storm’s center go? | Forecast cone | Uncertainty around forecast center positions at future lead times | The full area that could receive hazardous weather |
| How far could threshold winds extend? | Surface wind field | Potential tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force wind extent from forecast wind radii | A guarantee that every shaded point will reach the threshold |
| What is the chance my location reaches a threshold during a period? | Surface wind speed probability graphic | Cumulative, point-specific probabilities for specified sustained-wind thresholds and forecast intervals | A universal answer for every location in or near the cone |
| Is my area under official action? | NHC and local watch/warning products | Official watches and warnings applicable to your location | A substitute for local emergency instructions |
The NHC graphical product descriptions explain how the cone, wind field, wind probabilities, and warning products fit together. Selecting the graphic that matches your question prevents the most common interpretation errors.
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Yes. The cone tracks uncertainty in the center, not the outer edge of the wind field. Hurricane-force or tropical-storm-force winds can extend well away from the forecast center, and the wind field may be much wider on one side of the storm than the other. A location outside the cone can therefore still be affected, especially when the storm’s wind radii are broad or the center forecast shifts.
The reverse is also possible: a location inside the cone may not receive the threshold shown on a wind-field graphic. Being inside the cone means that the center’s predicted position has uncertainty that includes that area; it does not mean the center will pass directly over the location or that a particular wind speed is assured.
Do not trace the cone edge as a personal danger boundary. The NHC cone-use guidance warns that the graphic does not show all areas that could experience tropical-storm or hurricane conditions. It is a track-planning tool, not a map of every possible impact.
How to read both graphics together
- Check the issuance time. Find the latest NHC advisory and note when the cone and wind-field products were produced. Older graphics may reflect a superseded forecast.
- Start with the cone for center-track uncertainty. Follow the forecast center points and the cone width at the time relevant to your planning. A widening cone means greater uncertainty at later lead times; it does not mean the storm itself is expanding by that amount.
- Open the surface wind field separately. Look for the orange and red areas and note their quadrant shapes. Read them as potential maximum extents from the advisory, not as a promise that every shaded location will meet the threshold.
- Use point probabilities for a location-specific question. NHC’s surface wind speed probability graphics calculate cumulative chances that specified sustained wind thresholds will occur at a particular point during a forecast period. The calculation uses forecast track, intensity, and wind structure together with historical forecast errors.
- Check watches and warnings. Use the official watch or warning product applicable to your area for actionable information. Do not wait for your location to appear inside a cone or shaded wind field before following local emergency instructions.
- Refresh as the forecast changes. New advisories can move the center track, alter intensity, or change wind radii. Re-read the latest products rather than comparing an old cone with a new wind field as though they were issued at the same time.
What the 2026 experimental cone changes
During the 2026 hurricane season, NHC is issuing an experimental cone graphic that uses ellipses rather than the established operational circles. The experimental design separates two directions of forecast error:
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- Along-track error: the center arrives ahead of or behind the forecast position.
- Cross-track error: the center lies to the left or right of the forecast track.
An ellipse can represent those two error dimensions independently. The established operational cone instead uses circles derived from the 67th percentile of absolute track errors over the previous five years.
The NHC experimental cone page identifies the 2026 version. When explaining or comparing graphics, state whether you mean the operational cone or the experimental ellipse-based version. Their outlines are not produced by the same method, so a visual difference does not by itself indicate a change in the storm forecast or in expected wind impacts.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Which map should you use for common decisions?
“Where could the center be in three days?”
Use the forecast cone and the forecast center positions. The cone communicates the range of plausible center locations at that lead time. It does not answer whether your location will receive hurricane winds.
“Could strong winds reach my town?”
Look at the wind-field graphic for the potential threshold extent, then consult the point-specific wind probability product. The first shows the advisory’s maximum wind-radius footprint; the second gives a cumulative chance for a specified threshold at your point over a defined period.
“Should I prepare or evacuate?”
Use watches, warnings, local emergency-management instructions, and your own location’s hazards. The cone and wind field provide context but are not substitutes for official protective-action guidance. Storm surge, rainfall, flooding, and tornado threats may require action even when wind graphics appear less threatening.
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“Why is my area shaded but conditions are calm?”
Shading reflects a maximum possible radius by quadrant, not guaranteed conditions at every point. The storm may be weaker or positioned differently than forecast, the strongest winds may be concentrated elsewhere in the quadrant, or the threshold may occur later than the time you are observing.
Common mistakes and the correct interpretation
Mistake: calling the cone the storm’s impact area
Correction: Call it a center-track uncertainty cone. Impacts can extend outside it, and the cone does not include all hazards.
Mistake: treating the cone edge as a sharp boundary
Correction: The edge marks the limit of a statistical uncertainty construction at each forecast time. Weather conditions do not stop at that line, and the line is not a guarantee that the center will remain inside it.
Mistake: treating wind-field shading as certainty
Correction: Read orange and red areas as potential extents based on forecast wind radii. NHC says not every shaded location will experience the indicated sustained threshold.
Mistake: calling the wind field a probability map
Correction: Use the separate surface wind speed probability graphics for cumulative, location-specific chances. The wind field and the probability product answer different questions.
Mistake: mixing the operational and experimental 2026 cones
Correction: Identify whether the graphic uses operational circles or experimental ellipses. The experimental version distinguishes along-track from cross-track error; the operational version uses the established five-year absolute-error method.
How to explain the graphics accurately
A precise explanation can be short: “The cone shows where the cyclone’s center might track. The wind-field map shows how far specified sustained winds could extend. Neither one guarantees conditions at a particular address.” Add the point-probability graphic when the question involves a chance over time, and add watches or warnings when the question is what action to take.
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