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Alaska LNG would reach South Korea by pipeline from the North Slope to a proposed export terminal near Nikiski, then by LNG tanker across the Pacific. The Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) published a $38.7 billion construction estimate in 2020, but that is neither a current project budget nor the price a Korean buyer would pay for delivered gas. The cited project records do not establish a current delivered price, a specific Korean port or voyage route, or a firm operating date.
How Alaska LNG would travel to South Korea
The proposed project has two main legs: a long pipeline across Alaska, followed by ocean transport in LNG tankers. The gas would be cooled into liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the export terminal so it could be loaded onto ships.
- Produce and treat the gas at Prudhoe Bay. The design begins with a gas treatment plant on Alaska’s North Slope.
- Move it south by pipeline. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) describes an approximately 807-mile, 42-inch pipeline to liquefaction facilities on the Kenai Peninsula. Its environmental review traces the mainline generally alongside the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System and adjacent highways toward Livengood, then south toward Nikiski, including a Cook Inlet crossing. FERC’s final environmental review describes the proposed route.
- Liquefy and load the gas near Nikiski. The proposed terminal would cool the gas into LNG and load it onto vessels for export.
- Ship the LNG to an overseas buyer. South Korea is among the destinations considered in a U.S. Department of Energy analysis, but the project records cited here do not specify a Korean port, vessel, sailing distance, or seasonal route.
FERC’s 2020 project description gives design capacities of up to 20 million metric tons of LNG annually and up to 3.9 billion cubic feet of gas per day through the pipeline. These are proposed capacity figures, not evidence that the infrastructure has been built or is exporting gas.
What the $38.7 billion estimate covers
On June 25, 2020, AGDC announced a $38.7 billion project construction estimate. AGDC said the estimate was $5.5 billion, or 12.4%, below a $44.2 billion estimate compiled in 2015 by earlier project sponsors. AGDC attributed its update to a fourteen-month process that incorporated third-party industry expertise. The figures are the developer’s dated construction estimates, not a current final cost. AGDC’s announcement contains the estimate and its comparison.
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That construction estimate does not state what a South Korean buyer would pay per unit of gas. A delivered price would depend on costs and terms beyond the headline project figure, including upstream gas and infrastructure, operations and liquefaction, shipping, the sales contract, and South Korean terminal or regasification charges. The cited records do not provide a current figure for the complete delivered cost, so the $38.7 billion estimate cannot by itself be converted into a Korean LNG price.
What the permits and South Korea scenario establish
FERC announced a conditional Natural Gas Act authorization on May 21, 2020, for AGDC to site, construct, and operate the project. The U.S. Department of Energy’s export docket records separate export authorizations, including a 2020 final order for non-free-trade-agreement destinations and subsequent rehearing actions through 2023. These regulatory actions do not establish that construction has started, financing has closed, a buyer has committed, or the facility has an operating date. The official records cited here do not give a firm in-service date. See FERC’s authorization announcement and the DOE export docket.
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DOE’s January 2023 supplemental environmental review includes an analytical scenario in which LNG is delivered to South Korea and used at a natural-gas combined-cycle power plant. A modeled destination and use case are not a sales contract, a named buyer, or a delivered-price quote. The scenario appears in the DOE/NETL supplemental review appendix.
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What remains unknown for a Korean buyer
The available project and government records describe the proposed Alaska infrastructure and regulatory actions, but they do not supply the commercial and shipping details needed to estimate a delivered price in South Korea. In particular, they do not establish:
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- Brand: Young Modeler
- Subject: Moss LNG Carrier
- Wooden desktop model kit with pre-cut parts
- Assembly required; adhesive not included
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- a current project budget or financing plan;
- a signed South Korean purchase contract or its pricing formula and duration;
- a specific receiving port, shipping route, voyage distance, or shipping terms;
- the shipping, terminal, and regasification charges that would apply to a delivery; or
- a firm construction or operating schedule.
For a meaningful comparison with other gas supplies, use the same basis for each option: delivered price and date, contract structure and duration, shipping distance and terms, supply readiness, and which infrastructure and regasification charges are included.
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