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Start with the audited financial statements, not the investor presentation. Use GAAP revenue as the anchor, reconcile it to recurring-contract metrics and obligations, explain gross-margin changes through compute and hosting costs, and calculate cash burn from operating cash flow plus the capital and lease payments needed to keep the business running. Then divide usable liquidity by a normalized monthly burn and test scenarios in which compute costs rise, collections slow, growth misses plan, or new financing arrives late.
This approach separates durable economics from promotional metrics. It also prevents two common errors: treating annual recurring revenue (ARR) as if it were recognized revenue, and treating net loss as the full cash requirement.
What to collect before judging an AI company
Use the latest 10-K, 10-Q, annual report, or prospectus available for the company and period you are analyzing. Record the numbers for the same reporting period before calculating ratios. A spreadsheet that mixes a fiscal-year revenue figure with a quarter-end cash balance can produce a precise-looking but misleading answer.
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|---|---|---|
| Total GAAP revenue | The recognized sales base used for margins and growth. | Income statement and revenue note. |
| Product, subscription, usage, and services mix | Different components have different repeatability and cost profiles. | Revenue disaggregation note and management discussion. |
| Contract duration and renewal terms | Shows how much revenue must be re-won each period. | Business description, contracts discussion, and risk factors. |
| Deferred revenue and remaining performance obligations (RPO) | Indicates invoiced or contracted amounts that have not yet been recognized. | Balance-sheet note and commitments disclosures. |
| ARR, bookings, billings, consumption, and usage | These operating measures can explain momentum but are not interchangeable with GAAP revenue. | Investor materials and management discussion. |
| Customer and geographic concentration | A few accounts or regions can make reported growth fragile. | Concentration note and segment information. |
| Cost of revenue by category | Identifies the compute, hosting, support, and infrastructure drivers of gross margin. | Income-statement notes and cost commentary. |
| Operating expenses and stock-based compensation | Shows whether the company is gaining operating leverage or financing growth with dilution. | Income statement, expense notes, and cash-flow statement. |
| Cash, marketable securities, debt, capex, and leases | Determines how long the company can operate and what obligations consume liquidity. | Balance sheet, cash-flow statement, and lease or commitments notes. |
Keep a period-by-period history rather than a single snapshot. Three to eight quarters is usually enough to reveal whether a change is a trend, a contract-timing effect, or a one-time event.
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Use audited GAAP revenue as the anchor
GAAP revenue is the amount recognized under the company’s accounting policy after it satisfies its performance obligations. It is the only common starting point for comparing companies that may describe similar products with different commercial terminology.
Read the revenue-recognition note rather than relying on the headline number. The note explains when control transfers, how implementation or professional services are treated, whether consideration is variable, and how transaction price is allocated among distinct performance obligations. In C3.ai’s filing, the auditor identified the evaluation of performance obligations as a critical audit matter. That does not by itself imply an error; it signals that management judgment in this area is material enough to require particular audit attention.
Build a revenue bridge
For each quarter, bridge beginning revenue to ending revenue using the company’s disclosed drivers. A useful bridge separates:
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- New customers and newly activated contracts.
- Renewals and expansions from existing customers.
- Usage or consumption changes.
- Price changes and foreign-exchange effects, if disclosed.
- One-time hardware, implementation, or professional-services revenue.
- Churn, downsell, contract termination, or customer credits.
If the filing does not provide every bridge item, mark the missing component as not disclosed rather than inferring it from a marketing metric. Compare the bridge with the income statement over several periods. A large contract can raise bookings or RPO immediately while contributing little recognized revenue until delivery milestones are met.
Separate mix before calculating growth
Report total growth and the growth of each material component. A company whose subscription revenue is growing while services decline has different economics from one whose total growth is entirely a low-margin services project. Hardware sales can create a temporary revenue spike without creating a recurring customer relationship. Usage-based revenue can recur, but its amount may vary with customer activity and the company’s compute cost.
Test whether revenue is real, recurring, and collectible
ARR, bookings, billings, consumption, deferred revenue, and RPO answer different questions. Treat them as a set of lenses, not as substitutes for one another.
ARR is a supplemental operating measure
ARR generally represents the annualized value of recurring revenue from active contracts at a measurement date. The Q4 2025 investor deck states that ARR should be viewed independently of revenue and deferred revenue and is not intended to be combined with or replace those items. QumulusAI’s 2026 guidance similarly describes forward ARR as a supplemental operating metric and warns that “ARR is not necessarily indicative of future revenue under U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).”
Ask exactly what the company includes: contracted minimums, expected usage, pilots, discounts, renewals that have not been signed, or services attached to a subscription. A forward ARR figure that assumes future contract wins is not comparable with ARR measured only from active contracts.
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Reconcile ARR to recognized revenue
Construct a schedule with beginning ARR, additions, expansions, price changes, churn, and ending ARR. Then compare the ending ARR with revenue recognized in subsequent quarters. The two values will not match because of contract start dates, annual prepayments, usage variability, and accounting deferrals. The purpose is to understand the timing and the gap, not to force equality.
- A widening gap can indicate long implementation periods, heavy prepayments, unactivated contracts, or optimistic ARR assumptions.
- A narrowing gap can reflect renewals converting into delivered revenue or a slowdown in new bookings.
- Large changes concentrated in one customer require a concentration and credit-risk review.
Check bookings, billings, deferred revenue, and RPO
Bookings usually describe signed orders, billings describe invoices issued, deferred revenue is a balance-sheet liability for consideration received before recognition, and RPO represents contracted performance obligations that remain to be satisfied. Definitions vary, so quote the company’s definition in your worksheet. A rise in deferred revenue can be positive for future recognition but can also result from a single annual prepayment. RPO can include obligations several years out and therefore should not be treated as next-quarter revenue.
Test renewal quality and concentration
Review gross retention, net retention, renewal rates, and expansion only when the company defines the denominator and period. Tie those metrics to customer counts and contract values. Read the concentration note for customers representing a material share of revenue, accounts receivable, or backlog. Growth dependent on one government program, reseller, or hyperscale customer has a different risk profile from diversified growth, even when the top-line percentage is identical.
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Use the standard formula:
Gross margin = (revenue − cost of revenue) ÷ revenue.
Calculate it for total revenue and, where data permits, for product, subscription, usage, and services categories. Preserve the GAAP figure first. If management presents a non-GAAP gross margin, show the reconciliation rather than replacing the audited result.
Map the AI-specific cost stack
Cost of revenue can include more than server depreciation. Look for:
- GPU, accelerator, or other hardware depreciation and rental charges.
- Cloud inference and training fees.
- Data-center power, space, cooling, and networking.
- Third-party data, model-hosting, and software licenses used to serve customers.
- Customer support, site reliability, and other delivery personnel.
- Warranty, replacement, and service costs for hardware products.
- Capacity reservations, minimum commitments, and unused infrastructure.
Classifications differ. Some companies place support or depreciation in cost of revenue; others include portions in research and development. Use the company’s own classification consistently and explain any reclassification in your notes.
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Cerebras Systems reported a 39.0% gross margin in 2025 versus 42.3% in 2024 in its 2026 filing, attributing part of the decline to higher data-center costs for cloud inference capacity. The example shows why revenue growth alone is insufficient: additional usage can reduce profitability if the cost of serving each inference rises faster than price or utilization.
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Decompose a margin change into price, mix, utilization, and unit-cost effects where disclosure allows. A higher share of implementation services can depress the blended margin even when subscription unit economics improve. Conversely, a temporary hardware shipment can lift revenue while carrying a lower margin than software.
Keep GAAP and non-GAAP views separate
Investor materials may define non-GAAP gross margin by excluding stock-based compensation, acquired-intangible amortization, or other items. Present both views and list every adjustment. Excluding a recurring cost can make a metric useful for operational trend analysis, but it does not reduce the cash or economic resources required by the business. Use GAAP margin for comparability and the adjusted view only as a clearly labeled supplement.
Measure operating leverage beyond gross margin
Track research and development, sales and marketing, and general and administrative expense as percentages of revenue for each period. Then compare the growth rate of each expense with the growth rate of gross profit.
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Questions for each expense category
- Research and development: Is spending creating a sellable product, or is the company repeatedly rebuilding infrastructure to keep up with model demands?
- Sales and marketing: Are acquisition costs falling as the installed base expands, or are large discounts and partner commissions required to close every deal?
- General and administrative: Is the company absorbing public-company, legal, compliance, and support costs faster than revenue is scaling?
- Stock-based compensation: How much of reported expense is non-cash today, and how much dilution will the outstanding awards create?
For infrastructure providers and model developers, inspect depreciation, cloud commitments, capacity reservations, and minimum-volume contracts. These obligations can remain fixed when demand slows, so an income-statement ratio alone may understate downside operating leverage.
A useful test is incremental gross profit: calculate the change in gross profit divided by the change in revenue over a comparable period. If incremental gross profit is consistently positive and operating expenses grow more slowly, leverage is emerging. If revenue rises while incremental gross profit is consumed by higher infrastructure and sales costs, scale is not yet improving economics.
Define cash burn using the investments the business must make
Net loss is not cash burn. Depreciation and stock-based compensation reduce accounting profit without an immediate cash payment, while capital expenditure and lease payments can consume cash without appearing fully in the period’s operating loss.
A broad, defensible measure is:
Cash burn = net cash used in operating activities + capital expenditures + lease payments.
A Hong Kong Exchange prospectus defines cash burn as the aggregate amount of those three components. Use the company’s cash-flow statement and lease disclosures to reproduce the calculation, then show each component separately so a reader can see what drives the result.
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Normalize operating cash flow
Operating cash flow can swing because of working capital rather than underlying profitability. Identify:
- Customer prepayments that temporarily boost cash.
- Receivables growth caused by slow collections.
- Large vendor prepayments or inventory purchases.
- One-time legal, restructuring, or transaction costs.
- Payroll timing, annual bonuses, or tax payments.
- Financing-related fees that were classified in operating cash flow.
Show reported burn and a normalized burn. Do not erase genuine cash needs; adjust only for clearly identified timing or one-off items and state the adjustment. If customer prepayments are a recurring feature of the business, they belong in the base case rather than being dismissed as exceptional.
Include capex and leases consistently
Capital expenditure may include servers, networking, data-center build-outs, and equipment deposits. Lease payments can cover facilities and dedicated capacity. A company that reports improving operating cash flow while committing heavily to new capacity may still be consuming substantial cash. Include finance and operating lease obligations according to the disclosure and avoid counting the same payment twice.
Calculate runway and stress-test financing needs
Runway is scenario-dependent, not a single permanent number.
Runway in months = available cash and liquid investments ÷ normalized monthly cash burn.
Use cash and marketable securities that are actually available to fund operations. Exclude restricted cash, pledged balances, and assets that cannot be liquidated without material loss. Convert quarterly or annual burn to a monthly figure using the same period and normalization method.
Use at least four runway cases
| Case | Key assumptions | What it answers |
|---|---|---|
| Base | Management’s current growth, collection, gross-margin, capex, and hiring plans. | How long liquidity lasts if the operating plan is broadly achieved. |
| High compute cost | Higher GPU, cloud, power, or data-center prices; lower utilization or delayed pricing increases. | Whether infrastructure inflation can exhaust the margin cushion. |
| Slower growth | Lower bookings, more churn, slower collections, and reduced operating leverage. | How quickly fixed costs become a cash problem when sales miss plan. |
| Financing delay | No new equity or debt until a specified later date, with planned capacity spending still required. | Whether the company can reach the next financing milestone without distressed terms. |
Model capacity expansion separately. If management plans a new data center or a large accelerator purchase, add the cash timing and any lease commitments to the stress case. A prospectus that presents runway with and without IPO proceeds illustrates why financing assumptions must be explicit rather than embedded in a headline month count.
Interpret the runway number carefully
A 15-month runway does not guarantee 15 months of uninterrupted operations. It assumes the burn denominator remains stable, yet burn often rises during expansion and falls only after layoffs or capacity reductions. Set an internal warning point well before cash reaches zero so the company has time to negotiate financing, reduce commitments, or slow hiring.
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Compare two AI companies on identical axes
Build one table with the same definitions and period for both companies. Never rank one company’s ARR against another company’s GAAP revenue.
| Axis | Comparable measurement | Questions to ask |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth and mix | Year-over-year and sequential GAAP growth by product, subscription, usage, and services. | Is growth recurring, usage-driven, hardware-led, or implementation-led? |
| Recurring or usage-based share | Company-defined recurring revenue, ARR, and consumption metrics, each labeled separately. | What is active and contracted, and what is merely forecast? |
| Customer concentration | Largest-customer percentages for revenue, receivables, and RPO. | Could one renewal or program decision change the plan? |
| Gross margin and trend | GAAP margin, adjusted margin, and the year-over-year change. | Are compute, hosting, power, and support costs falling per unit? |
| Operating-expense growth | R&D, sales and marketing, and G&A as percentages of revenue. | Is gross profit growing faster than the cost base? |
| Operating cash flow | Reported and normalized net cash used in operating activities. | Are working-capital movements masking the underlying burn? |
| Capex and leases | Cash capex, equipment deposits, lease payments, and remaining commitments. | What must be funded even if growth slows? |
| Free cash flow | Operating cash flow less capex, with lease treatment disclosed. | Does the company generate cash after maintaining capacity? |
| Liquidity and debt | Unrestricted cash, marketable securities, maturities, covenants, and interest. | How much liquidity is usable before the next refinancing? |
| Dilution and financing access | Share count, options, convertibles, recent raises, and market access. | Can the company fund the plan without punitive dilution? |
| Capacity commitments | Reserved cloud capacity, purchase obligations, and data-center contracts. | Are costs fixed while customer demand is variable? |
IBM’s 2026 annual filing describes software ARR as a management metric calculated from recurring revenue and used to assess segment health. That is a useful example of how a large company can use ARR internally while still reporting GAAP revenue as the formal financial measure.
An illustrative calculation
Consider a hypothetical AI platform with $120 million of quarterly revenue, $72 million of quarterly cost of revenue, $65 million of operating cash outflow, $18 million of capex, and $7 million of lease payments. Its GAAP gross margin is 40%: ($120 million − $72 million) ÷ $120 million. Broad quarterly cash burn is $90 million, or $30 million per month, after adding capex and leases to operating cash outflow.
If the company has $270 million of unrestricted cash and liquid investments, the simple runway is nine months. A normalized case might remove a one-time $10 million legal payment from operating cash outflow, reducing quarterly burn to $80 million and monthly burn to about $26.7 million. That produces roughly 10.1 months of runway, but only if the legal payment will not recur and the company does not add the planned capacity purchase.
In a high-compute-cost case, add $12 million of quarterly hosting and power expense and $6 million of quarterly capacity deposits. Burn becomes $108 million per quarter, or $36 million per month, reducing runway to 7.5 months. The example demonstrates why a single net-loss figure cannot answer the financing question.
Red flags and evidence that deserves confidence
Red flags
- ARR growth is emphasized while GAAP revenue, deferred revenue, or the definition of active contracts is difficult to find.
- Forward ARR includes unsigned renewals, pilots, or expected usage without a clear bridge to recognized revenue.
- Gross margin falls as inference volume grows, with no disclosed path to lower unit compute cost.
- Operating cash flow improves only because customers prepay while capex and lease commitments accelerate.
- One customer, reseller, or government program accounts for a large share of revenue or RPO.
- Runway depends on an unnamed financing event or on selling restricted or illiquid assets.
- Non-GAAP margin excludes recurring stock compensation, infrastructure, or delivery costs without a transparent reconciliation.
Evidence of a stronger profile
- Reported revenue grows through renewals and expansion across a diversified customer base.
- ARR, bookings, deferred revenue, RPO, and GAAP revenue move in a coherent, explainable pattern.
- Gross margin is stable or improving after compute, hosting, power, and support costs.
- Incremental gross profit grows faster than operating expenses.
- Normalized burn per dollar of incremental revenue declines.
- Liquidity covers the base and stress cases without assuming a rescue financing.
- Capacity commitments match signed demand and can be reduced if utilization disappoints.
A repeatable due-diligence workflow
- Download the latest audited annual filing and interim filing or prospectus.
- Copy GAAP revenue, cost of revenue, operating expenses, cash, marketable securities, debt, capex, and lease payments into a period-by-period worksheet.
- Read the revenue-recognition note and list each material performance obligation and timing judgment.
- Separate product, subscription, usage, hardware, and services revenue.
- Record the exact definitions of ARR, bookings, billings, consumption, deferred revenue, and RPO.
- Bridge ARR and bookings changes to recognized revenue without combining unlike measures.
- Calculate GAAP gross margin and reconcile any adjusted margin line by line.
- Map infrastructure and delivery costs, including GPUs, cloud, data-center, networking, support, depreciation, and warranties where disclosed.
- Calculate operating expenses as a percentage of revenue and inspect stock compensation, depreciation, commitments, and reservations.
- Reproduce cash burn as operating cash outflow plus capex plus lease payments, then document normalization adjustments.
- Run base, high-compute-cost, slower-growth, and financing-delay runway cases.
- Compare the company with peers using identical periods, definitions, and axes, then write the investment or lending conclusion with the assumptions attached.
How to reach a conclusion
A durable AI business has more than a large announced contract or impressive ARR number. The strongest combination is recognized revenue that converts into cash, recurring or usage demand that survives renewals, gross margin that holds after infrastructure costs, operating expenses that grow more slowly than gross profit, and liquidity sufficient to reach breakeven without repeated distressed financing.
A weak profile shows the opposite pattern: promotional forward metrics, a widening gap between ARR and GAAP revenue, margin compression as capacity scales, concentrated customers, mandatory capex or lease commitments, and a runway that works only if a future capital raise arrives on time. State which assumptions drive your conclusion and update the worksheet each reporting period; the quality of the answer depends as much on consistent definitions and timing as on the headline percentages.
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