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Different revenue figures for the same AI company may each be accurate while measuring different things. Before comparing them, identify whether each is recognized revenue, contractual annual recurring revenue (ARR), or a recent sales pace projected across a year; then align the date, company scope, and treatment of partner sales. A run rate can signal momentum, but it is not revenue already earned over a full year.
Start by identifying what the number measures
“Revenue” headlines can blur three distinct measures. Keep them in separate columns rather than treating them as interchangeable.
| Measure | What it describes | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| Recognized revenue | Revenue recorded for a completed reporting period under the company’s accounting policies—for example, a fiscal year or quarter. | It is not automatically the company’s current sales pace or its future revenue. |
| Contractual ARR | A point-in-time measure of recurring revenue associated with contracts, as defined by the company. | It is not necessarily recognized revenue multiplied by a factor, nor a forecast of revenue. |
| Annualized run rate | A recent sales pace projected over a year, often using a recent month or quarter as the base. | It is not a completed year’s booked revenue and may change if sales are volatile or the chosen period is atypical. |
Definitions are company-specific. Amplitude’s 2025 Form 10-K defines ARR as contractual subscription revenue at a point in time and says it should be viewed independently of revenue; it is not GAAP revenue on an annualized basis. Its 2024 Form 10-K also says ARR is not intended to forecast revenue and cautions that companies may calculate similarly named metrics differently. Do not assume that two figures labeled “ARR” share a definition.
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A usable comparison records not just the amount, but what business and time window it covers. A fiscal-year total, a quarter, a month-end estimate, and a recent-period pace annualized are different observations. Even if two figures use the same label, they cannot support a clean growth-rate calculation if their dates or measurement periods do not match.
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- Date: Record the exact as-of date or the start and end of the reporting period.
- Scope: Note whether the figure covers the whole company, a product, or a sales channel, and what is included or excluded.
- Definition: Preserve the company’s stated meaning of ARR or run rate rather than supplying your own.
- Status: Mark whether the number is from a filing, a company statement, a media report, a third-party estimate, or a modeled series.
- Currency and accounting basis: Keep these with the amount, and note how partner sales are recorded if disclosed.
When any of these fields differ or are unknown, report the figures side by side with their qualifications instead of calculating a growth rate. A comparison chart that joins directly reported values with modeled estimates should label which points are estimated. The Latent’s series through July 2026, for example, connects reported anchors with modeled interpolation and labels its monthly points as estimates, not booked revenue.
Check whether cloud-partner sales are reported gross or net
Cloud marketplaces and other intermediaries can affect the topline even when the underlying customer demand is similar. A company that records the full customer payment as revenue and the provider’s share as an expense will show a different revenue amount from one that records only its own share. The distinction is about accounting presentation; it does not, by itself, prove that one company sold more or earned more profit.
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As a simplified illustration, suppose a customer pays $100 through a cloud partner, which keeps $20. A gross presentation might record $100 of revenue and $20 of expense; a net presentation might record $80 of revenue. This is illustrative only: actual treatment depends on the transaction and the parties’ roles, and the example does not establish how any particular company accounts for a sale.
Axios reported on October 8, 2026 that Anthropic includes the full value of some partner sales in revenue and records the cloud provider’s cut as expense, while OpenAI records only its share of certain partner sales. The report said both approaches were GAAP-compliant and cited the importance of factors such as control of the customer relationship and responsibility for delivery. GAAP compliance does not make differently presented topline figures directly comparable, and Axios cautioned that accounting differences did not explain the entire reported gap.
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What the OpenAI and Anthropic figures do—and do not—show
Recent headlines about these companies refer to annualized revenue estimates, not audited annual revenue. Keep the date and source attached whenever quoting them.
| Source and date | Figure reported | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Axios, September 3, 2026 | Anthropic: more than $65 billion; OpenAI: more than $40 billion | Forward-looking annualized revenue figures based on recent sales, not realized fiscal-year totals. Axios described the labs as annualizing recent sales in broadly similar ways while differing in some partner-sale presentation. |
| The Latent, July 31, 2026 estimate | Anthropic: $65 billion; OpenAI: $40 billion | Estimated month-end annualized run rates from a series that combines reported anchors and modeled interpolation; not booked revenue or a substitute for company accounts. |
| Axios, October 8, 2026 | OpenAI: about $50 billion annualized, roughly $20 billion below a previously reported $70 billion | The report said the earlier figure attempted to gross up OpenAI’s number to make a more direct comparison using Anthropic’s methodology. The figures therefore have different comparison bases; neither should be presented as audited annual revenue. |
The October report illustrates why a headline number should not be treated as a stable historical fact without its basis. The September figures and the July estimate are also not interchangeable: one is a media-reported forward-looking figure and the other a third-party series with modeled interpolation. The available figures do not support a simple conclusion that one company is growing faster.
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Use filings to separate growth from durability
Public filings can show recognized revenue alongside a company’s own ARR definition and other operating measures. Amplitude, Inc. provides a useful example of why those lines should remain distinct, even though it is not a claim about a private AI lab.
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- Amplitude’s 2026 Form 10-K reports fiscal 2025 recognized revenue of $343.2 million, compared with $299.3 million in fiscal 2024, a 15% year-over-year increase. The fiscal years ended December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively.
- Amplitude’s 2024 Form 10-K reports ARR of $312 million at December 31, 2024, compared with $281 million at December 31, 2023, an 11% increase. These are point-in-time ARR figures, not recognized annual revenue.
- Amplitude reports dollar-based net retention separately from revenue and ARR, illustrating how retention and customer expansion can add context to topline growth.
For an AI company, examine retention, expansion, customer concentration, margins, cash flow, and the costs of delivering the service when those measures are disclosed. They help assess whether growth is repeatable and economically durable; none should be inferred from a run-rate headline alone. For private companies without comparable filings, distinguish company figures reported by media from audited statements and third-party estimates, and avoid implying a level of verification the source does not provide.
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A practical comparison checklist
- Copy the figure exactly, including currency, company or business scope, and any qualifier such as “about,” “more than,” or “estimated.”
- Label the metric as recognized revenue, contractual ARR, or annualized run rate. If the source does not establish which one it is, say so rather than guessing.
- Write down the time basis: completed fiscal year or quarter, point-in-time date, or recent period projected over a year.
- Check the sales channel and accounting presentation. Note whether partner sales are reported gross or net and where the partner’s cut appears, if the source explains it.
- Rate the evidence: filed financial statement, company statement, media-reported private-company figure, third-party estimate, or modeled interpolation.
- Compare only aligned measures. If definitions, dates, scopes, or accounting treatments differ, preserve the differences and do not calculate a growth rate as though they matched.
- Assess durability separately using disclosed retention, expansion, concentration, margin, cash-flow, and service-delivery-cost information.
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