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To advertise a prediction market in the United States, you must first obtain Google’s prediction-market certification. Under Google’s January 2026 policy, eligibility is limited to either a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-authorized Designated Contract Market (DCM) whose primary business is listing exchange-listed event contracts, or a brokerage authorized by the National Futures Association (NFA) to give customers access to qualifying DCM products. Google currently approves U.S. targeting but excludes Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. Ads cannot serve until Google approves the certification application.
This guide explains how to determine eligibility, assemble evidence, configure locations, prepare your website or app, submit the application and keep approval after launch. It is a Google advertising-policy process, not a substitute for legal advice about commodities, financial services, gaming or state law.
What Google considers a prediction market
Google describes prediction markets as platforms that list or provide access to exchange-listed event contracts connected with economics, sports or current events. An event contract pays according to whether a specified outcome occurs, so the market price represents traders’ collective view of the probability of that outcome. The regulatory status of the exchange and intermediary, rather than the marketing description alone, determines whether the product can qualify.
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A website that merely publishes forecasts, polls users, sells analysis or offers an unregulated wagering product does not become eligible simply by calling itself a prediction market. Before you start the application, write down exactly which contracts are listed, which entity lists them, which entity accepts or routes customer orders, and which domain or app Google will review.
Who can qualify in the United States
Google’s January 2026 U.S. eligibility language identifies two permitted operator types. You should be able to place your business clearly into one of these categories and document the relationship between the regulated entity and the advertised destination.
| Eligible structure | Regulatory requirement | What the evidence must show |
|---|---|---|
| Designated Contract Market | Authorized by the CFTC as a DCM, with a primary business of listing exchange-listed event contracts. | The legal entity, CFTC authorization and the exchange-listed event-contract business are tied to the website or app being advertised. |
| NFA-authorized brokerage | Authorized by the NFA to offer third-party access to products listed by a qualifying DCM. | The brokerage’s NFA status, the DCM products it offers and the contractual or operational relationship among the brokerage, DCM and destination are clear. |
If your company is a technology vendor, publisher, affiliate, data provider or marketing agency rather than one of those regulated entities, do not assume it can apply in its own name. The application should identify the regulated advertiser and explain any agency, brand, app-store or domain relationship. Google may require the licensee itself to be the applicant or to verify the relationship.
Where U.S. ads may run
Google currently lists the United States as an approved location for prediction-market advertising, with five state exclusions: Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. Treat that list as a hard geographic boundary for campaign targeting, not as a suggestion. A nationally targeted campaign that leaves one excluded state enabled can create a policy problem even when the advertiser is otherwise eligible.
Location settings to configure
- Use presence-based targeting. In Google Ads, open the campaign’s location settings and choose the option that targets people who are in, or regularly in, the selected locations. Do not use a setting that also targets people who merely show interest in an excluded state.
- Select the United States and exclude each prohibited state. Add Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio as campaign-level exclusions. If your account uses multiple campaigns, repeat the exclusions in every campaign that could advertise the product.
- Review advanced location options. Check the campaign’s location-inclusion and exclusion behavior after saving. A shared account-level list or an imported location setting can reintroduce a state you intended to block.
- Audit local landing pages and feeds. If a feed, store listing, geo-personalized page or deep link presents the product in an excluded state, remove or block that experience as well. A campaign can be geographically configured correctly while its destination still invites prohibited users.
Google’s approved-location list can change. Recheck the live Prediction Markets policy and Gambling and games policy immediately before applying and whenever you expand targeting.
Evidence and documents to gather before applying
Certification is easier when the application, regulatory records and destination identify the same entities. Prepare a single evidence pack with consistent legal names, addresses and domains. Google’s requirements can vary by application, so provide the requested materials in the format and language specified in the form.
Regulatory authorization
- CFTC DCM authorization records if you are the exchange operator.
- NFA authorization or registration evidence if you are a brokerage offering third-party access to DCM-listed contracts.
- The name of each DCM whose contracts are made available through the brokerage, together with evidence that those products are listed by the DCM.
- Any applicable financial, commodity or gaming licenses for the product and target jurisdictions. A state or gaming license does not replace the CFTC or NFA qualification required by Google’s U.S. rule, but it may be part of the compliance record Google requests.
Corporate and relationship records
- The advertiser’s full legal name, trading name and registered address.
- The legal owner of the website, mobile application, advertising account and payment profile.
- Domain ownership or control information where the domain is operated by a parent, subsidiary or service provider.
- A short description of the relationship among the DCM, brokerage, brand, app publisher and any agency submitting the application.
- Contact details for a compliance or legal representative who can answer verification questions.
Product description
Prepare a plain-language description of the contracts, markets and customer journey. State whether users view prices, open positions, deposit funds, place orders or receive access through another regulated entity. Identify whether the contracts concern economics, sports, current events or another category. Do not describe a product as exchange-listed unless the relevant DCM actually lists it.
Prepare the website or app before certification
Google expects the destination to disclose material information before a user commits funds or submits personal data. The exact presentation can vary by product, but the following items should be visible, understandable and consistent with the application.
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Required destination disclosures
- Age warning: Tell visitors the minimum age and restrict access according to the applicable rules.
- Addiction resources: Provide responsible-use information and links or contact details for relevant problem-gambling or addiction support.
- Terms and conditions: Explain account rules, contract settlement, fees, eligibility, prohibited conduct, dispute handling and any material limitations.
- Licensee identity: Display the regulated licensee’s legal name and license or authorization number where applicable.
- Privacy policy: Name the entity that controls personal data and explain collection, use, sharing, retention and user rights.
Place these disclosures where a normal visitor can find them without completing an account or deposit. Make sure the licensee name and number match the evidence submitted to Google. If the landing page uses a brand name that differs from the regulated entity, explain the relationship on the page rather than leaving users to infer it.
Destination consistency checks
- Every ad’s final URL should load the same product and regulated operator described in the application.
- Claims about availability, contracts, fees, payouts, settlement or legal status must be accurate for the selected U.S. locations.
- Do not route approved-state traffic to a sign-up flow that accepts users from Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York or Ohio.
- Remove broken links, placeholder pages, inaccessible terms, expired license numbers and disclosures that appear only after registration.
- Check mobile and desktop versions, because a missing warning or privacy link on one device can make the destination inconsistent.
Step-by-step: submit the Google Ads certification application
1. Classify the product and applicant
Document why the service falls within Google’s prediction-market definition and identify the applicant as either the qualifying DCM or the qualifying NFA brokerage. Record the exact website URLs, app package or store identifiers and advertising-account details that will be submitted. If an agency is completing the form, the regulated entity should review and authorize every answer.
2. Verify the regulatory path
Confirm that the DCM authorization or NFA brokerage status is current. For a brokerage, verify that the products are listed by a qualifying DCM and that the brokerage is authorized to provide third-party access. Resolve mismatched legal names, recently changed corporate entities and expired registrations before submission.
3. Assemble the licensing and operational evidence
Scan or export the requested authorization records, licenses, corporate details and relationship explanations. Use the same spelling of the entity name, address and license number in the application, website footer, terms and privacy policy. If a document covers only one state, product or entity, label that scope clearly.
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Design the campaign around approved U.S. locations only. Build the five state exclusions before launch, and preserve a copy of the location configuration for your compliance record. If your business cannot technically prevent excluded-state sign-ups, fix that control before applying rather than relying only on ad targeting.
5. Complete the destination review
Publish the age warning, addiction resources, terms and conditions, licensee name and number, and privacy policy naming the data controller. Test the sign-up, deposit and contract-access flow from an approved location and confirm that the disclosures remain available without an account.
6. Apply through Google Ads
Use Google’s prediction-market certification application in the Google Ads policy or certification workflow. Submit the website or app identifiers, applicant identity, regulatory information, licensing evidence, operating details and intended locations requested by the form. Answer each question about the product and business model directly; do not substitute a generic gambling description for the requested prediction-market information.
7. Wait for approval before serving ads
Certification approval is a prerequisite to serving prediction-market ads. Do not publish an active campaign on the assumption that a pending application permits delivery. Keep the submitted destination and regulatory status unchanged while Google reviews the application, and respond promptly if Google requests clarification or additional documents.
Build the campaign within the approved scope
Certification covers the product, operator, destination and locations represented in the application. Create campaign controls that preserve that scope.
- Use only the approved domain, app or destination identifiers.
- Keep location targeting limited to the United States minus Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio unless Google’s policy has changed and you have obtained the required approval for another location.
- Ensure ad text describes the actual exchange-listed event-contract service and does not promise guaranteed outcomes, risk-free returns or certainty about an event.
- Send each ad to a page that contains the required age, responsible-use, licensing, terms and privacy information.
- Coordinate search, display, video, app and remarketing campaigns so that an unapproved campaign type or audience does not promote the product outside the certified scope.
Google’s certification does not turn an otherwise inaccurate or misleading ad into an acceptable one. Ordinary Google Ads requirements still apply to ad claims, destinations, user safety and account behavior.
Why an application or campaign may be rejected
Google does not publish a single rejection checklist for every case, so the practical response is to compare the application, destination and campaign against each eligibility condition rather than repeatedly resubmitting unchanged material.
The applicant is not a qualifying regulated entity
A publisher, software provider, unregulated exchange or generic gaming operator may fail the U.S. eligibility test. Recheck whether the applicant is actually a CFTC-authorized DCM with the required primary business, or an NFA-authorized brokerage offering access to qualifying DCM products. If not, changing ad wording will not cure the structural problem.
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Different legal names, a missing license number, an expired authorization or an unexplained parent-company relationship can prevent verification. Update the website and application so the regulated entity, brand, domain and payment profile are connected by clear documentation.
The destination lacks required disclosures
Check every page a reviewer can reach from the ad, including mobile pages and sign-up screens. Add the age warning, addiction resources, terms, licensee identity and privacy-policy data-controller information where users can find them before registration.
The campaign reaches an excluded state
Review location options, audience expansion, presence-versus-interest targeting, campaign-level exclusions and geo-personalized landing pages. Remove excluded states from every relevant campaign and prevent sign-up or contract access when your product controls allow it.
The submitted product changed
A new domain, app, DCM relationship, contract category, operator, license, landing-page flow or target location can make the original certification inaccurate. Treat a material change as a trigger to review the certification and recertify before promoting the changed service.
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How to maintain certification after approval
Approval is not permanent permission to change the business freely. Google states that material changes require recertification and that policy violations can suspend advertising access.
Events that should trigger a compliance review
- A new or replaced DCM, brokerage, legal entity, domain or app.
- A change in ownership, license, registration, authorization or primary business activity.
- New contract types, markets or settlement mechanics that were not described in the application.
- A new state, country, audience, campaign type or advertising destination.
- Changes to age controls, responsible-use information, privacy practices, terms or sign-up flow.
Ongoing controls
- Maintain a register of certifications, authorization documents, license expiry dates, approved domains and approved locations.
- Review ads and landing pages whenever product, legal or compliance teams change customer-facing copy.
- Monitor campaigns for delivery in excluded states and investigate any geographic anomaly promptly.
- Keep evidence of destination checks, exclusion settings and recertification submissions.
- Pause affected ads when a license expires, a destination changes materially or Google flags a policy issue; resume only after the underlying condition is corrected and approval is confirmed where required.
DCM versus NFA brokerage: choosing the application path
| Decision point | DCM applicant | NFA brokerage applicant |
|---|---|---|
| Regulated role | Lists exchange-listed event contracts as its primary business. | Provides third-party access to products listed by a qualifying DCM. |
| Core evidence | CFTC DCM authorization and proof that the advertised service is the exchange-listed event-contract business. | NFA authorization plus evidence of the DCM products and the brokerage’s access arrangement. |
| Destination relationship | The DCM, brand, domain and app must be connected to the exchange operator. | The application must explain the brokerage, DCM, brand, domain and app relationship. |
| Geography | United States is currently approved, excluding Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. | |
| Disclosure burden | Age warning, addiction resources, terms and conditions, licensee name and number, and a privacy policy naming the data controller. | |
| Change risk | Material changes require recertification; policy violations can suspend advertising access. | |
Pre-submission checklist
- Is the applicant a CFTC-authorized DCM or an NFA-authorized brokerage tied to qualifying DCM products?
- Can you identify the exact exchange-listed event contracts and customer journey?
- Do legal names, license numbers, domains, apps and payment entities match across the evidence and destination?
- Are Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio excluded from every relevant campaign and sign-up flow?
- Are the age warning, addiction resources, terms, licensee details and privacy-policy data-controller statement visible before registration?
- Have you submitted all website or app identifiers and requested licensing information through Google’s certification workflow?
- Will the campaign remain paused until Google approves certification?
- Is there an owner responsible for license renewals, policy monitoring and recertification after material changes?
Policy and legal checks before launch
Google’s policy is only one layer of the launch decision. The CFTC explains that regulated exchanges and intermediaries undergo a stringent application process and periodic examinations, but that regulatory fact does not determine whether every proposed contract, promotion or state-specific customer journey is lawful. Obtain jurisdiction-specific legal advice for the product, contracts, advertising claims and target locations.
Because Google’s approved locations and policy language can change, check the live Prediction Markets and Gambling and games policy pages immediately before submitting an application and again before launching a materially changed campaign. Keep the date of each review in your compliance record.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can a prediction-market startup apply if it is not a CFTC-authorized DCM or NFA-authorized brokerage?
Not under Google’s current U.S. eligibility language. The qualifying applicant must be a CFTC-authorized DCM whose primary business is listing exchange-listed event contracts, or an NFA-authorized brokerage offering third-party access to products listed by a qualifying DCM.
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No. Google currently identifies the United States as approved but excludes Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. Campaign settings and the customer journey must prevent delivery and access in those states.
Can ads run while the certification application is being reviewed?
No. Google approval is required before prediction-market ads can serve.
What should an operator do after changing its domain, brokerage relationship or contract products?
Treat the change as potentially material, review whether the existing certification still describes the service and recertify before advertising the changed product when required by Google.
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