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As of Saturday, October 3, 2026, the heaviest rain potential was in southern and coastal Alabama. Central Alabama was forecast to see showers, with the greatest coverage Sunday and generally 1–2 inches; farther south, forecasts called for higher totals through Monday. The figures come from different forecast areas and should not be treated as one statewide estimate.
Where the rain is expected
| Area | Forecast as of | What forecasters expected |
|---|---|---|
| Central Alabama | National Weather Service Birmingham, October 3 | Mainly showers, with the greatest coverage Sunday. Generally 1–2 inches, locally higher south of Interstate 20. NWS Birmingham forecast |
| Southern Alabama | Alabama Emergency Management Agency, October 1 | 3–5 inches through Monday in the southern part of the state, possibly higher near the coast. Its statewide outlook also projected 1–3 inches in northern Alabama. Alabama EMA outlook |
| NWS Mobile forecast area | National Weather Service Mobile, October 2 | 4–6 inches in much of the office’s forecast area, with 2–3 inches possible in its far northern reaches. Isolated 7–10-inch totals were possible near the coast where storms repeatedly pass over the same locations. NWS Mobile forecast discussion |
| Southeast Alabama | National Weather Service Tallahassee, October 2 | Rounds of rain were expected over the weekend, with a slight risk of excessive rainfall Sunday. Early-week conditions depended on where the front stalled. NWS Tallahassee forecast discussion |
These forecasts cover different areas and were issued on different dates. The Mobile office’s higher coastal amounts do not apply statewide, and the estimates should not be averaged together.
When rain could arrive
Rain was expected in rounds rather than as one continuous event. Sunday was the focus for the greatest shower coverage in Central Alabama; farther south and along the coast, rain potential extended through Monday. The exact timing and placement of heavier downpours remained uncertain, including where the front would stall and which locations might get repeated storms.
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Flooding and coastal hazards
Repeated heavy downpours could cause localized flash flooding, especially near the coast and in urban or poor-drainage areas. In Southeast Alabama, NWS Tallahassee highlighted high rainfall rates and drainage trouble spots as concerns; it noted that sufficiently high totals could also affect smaller streams. That assessment is specific to its forecast area, not a statewide statement about rivers.
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NWS Mobile also forecast minor coastal flooding around early-morning high tides, with water levels potentially reaching about 2 feet above normally dry ground, and a high rip-current risk at coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Monday. These are forecast hazards, not assurances that flooding will occur at a particular location. Check current alerts for any active coastal advisory.
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What to check before travel or outdoor plans
- Open the National Weather Service point forecast for your town or destination; statewide estimates can obscure substantial local differences.
- Check the latest radar and watches or warnings before leaving, since short-range forecasts and storm placement can change.
- Allow extra caution around low-lying roads, urban drainage trouble spots, and coastal areas during high tides.
- Expect lightning and occasional gusty winds with storms. NWS Mobile said widespread severe weather was not expected in its area, but that does not remove ordinary thunderstorm hazards.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.

