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Not conclusively. Huawei’s chairman said he believed Ascend’s share of China’s AI-chip market should exceed Nvidia’s, but Huawei supplied no supporting data, and he acknowledged that reliable figures for Nvidia’s share are difficult to obtain. Separate analyst estimates suggest a dramatic shift, but they are estimates and a forecast—not an audited market tally.
What do the market-share estimates actually say?
The available figures point to Huawei gaining ground in China, but they do not establish a definitive winner. The Associated Press reported Bernstein estimates that Nvidia and Huawei each had about 40% of China’s AI-chip market in 2025, followed by a forecast for 2026 that puts Huawei at about 50% and Nvidia at around 8%.
| Period | Nvidia | Huawei | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | About 40% | About 40% | Bernstein estimates, as reported by the Associated Press in 2026; not an audited market-share count. Associated Press |
| 2026 | Around 8% | About 50% | Bernstein forecast reported by the Associated Press in 2026; it is a projection, not a final result. Associated Press |
Huawei rotating chairman Eric Xu offered a separate, less quantified view on September 17, 2026: “I think Ascend market share should be bigger than Nvidia’s.” Reuters reported that Xu also said reliable data on Nvidia’s China share were hard to obtain and that Huawei provided no figures to support his belief. The company’s assertion and Bernstein’s estimates should therefore be treated as distinct claims, not combined into a confirmed market result. Reuters via Investing.com
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Does a bigger share mean Ascend has replaced Nvidia?
No. Market share is not a measure of whether one accelerator is faster for every task or whether one vendor has displaced the other across all AI workloads. The Associated Press reported that Nvidia continues to matter to Chinese AI development and that Huawei’s high-performance chips lag Nvidia’s most advanced products in many areas. A falling share estimate for Nvidia in China would not, by itself, prove that Nvidia has lost technical relevance or that Ascend can substitute in every deployment. Associated Press
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Why is Huawei building chips and systems of its own?
The immediate strategic reason is supply control. Huawei is trying to build an AI-computing stack it can develop and supply without relying on American chip technology. Xu said Huawei could not produce enough AI computing equipment to meet demand in China and was limiting overseas sales. He put the motivation plainly: “We cannot accept a destiny where we cannot control our fate being determined by others in terms of willingness to sell chips to China or not.” Reuters via Investing.com
That effort is not just about making an individual processor. Large AI deployments depend on connecting accelerators into systems and giving developers software tools to use them. Huawei’s push combines Ascend chips, connected computing systems and software support—a broader contest with Nvidia’s hardware and its established CUDA developer ecosystem.
How do Ascend and Nvidia compare in practice?
A useful comparison has to distinguish workload, generation and the complete system rather than rely on one performance figure. The available reporting does not provide an independent, apples-to-apples benchmark for Ascend 950DT against a current Nvidia accelerator.
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Training and inference are different tests
Reuters reported that Huawei’s Ascend 950DT card integrates an AI processor with memory and other components and is aimed primarily at developing models and generating responses. The 950PR is described as handling user requests before they reach the model. These are different roles in a computing system, so their capabilities should not be collapsed into a single chip-versus-chip claim. Reuters via Investing.com
Gregory C. Allen’s April 2025 testimony to the U.S. House Committee summarized a reported comparison in which Ascend 910C achieved roughly 60% of Nvidia H100 performance for inference. That is a historical, reported comparison for a specific chip and workload—not an independent benchmark, not a training result, and not evidence of 950DT performance. U.S. House Committee testimony
Whole systems and software matter
Connecting many processors efficiently, moving data between them and giving developers familiar tools can be as important to deployment as the performance of a single chip. Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem remains an advantage because developers have built substantial software and workflows around it. Huawei is working to reduce that gap, but ecosystem activity is not proof that the gap has closed.
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On October 1, 2026, reporting on a DeepSeek–Huawei collaboration described programming tools for Ascend that include compute and chip-to-chip communication libraries, along with TileLang support. The tools address both work within an accelerator and communication between accelerators. Tom’s Hardware
Supply and memory can limit what gets deployed
Reuters reported that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) scarcity and cost were affecting Chinese AI-chip makers. It also reported that the indicated price for an Ascend 950DT exceeded 250,000 yuan (US$37,255), based on information from two people familiar with pricing discussions. That is not a published Huawei price list or an official retail quote. Reuters via Investing.com
These constraints help explain why a market-share forecast should not be read as a simple measure of chip quality. Availability, memory supply, system capacity, workload fit and software support all affect which accelerators organizations can actually use.
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How far has Huawei’s software ecosystem progressed?
Huawei is building out CANN, its software stack for Ascend, and says it is moving toward sustained, community-driven open-source development. In a September 2026 company account, Huawei said Ascend supported more than 90 leading third-party open-source projects. Huawei also reported more than 5,200 monthly active developers and over 40 AI models pre-trained on its stack; Reuters separately reported Huawei’s claims that more than 5,200 developers were active monthly and over 40 models had been trained directly on its computing platform. These are company-reported adoption measures, not independently audited counts. Huawei Reuters via Investing.com
Huawei executive David Wang said the company was evolving Ascend on a “one-generation-a-year cycle.” Huawei also said testing of the 950DT had produced good results and expected model developers to begin training on systems using it the following year. Reuters reported the chip was expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. These are company statements and plans, not independent test results or confirmation of completed deployment. Huawei Reuters via Investing.com
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Huawei is becoming a more important domestic alternative in China, and Bernstein’s reported forecast suggests its share could grow substantially. But the forecast is not a final market count, Huawei’s own share claim is unsupported by published company data, and the evidence does not show that Ascend has displaced Nvidia across workloads. For a real deployment decision, compare the specific accelerator generation and workload, the full system and interconnect, software compatibility, memory and supply availability, and the price actually offered—not just a national market-share estimate.
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