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Would the Greens’ tax plans really raise the money they said they would? The Green Party of England and Wales said its personal-tax changes could raise £50–£70 billion a year in 2024 prices by the end of the next parliament. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) thought some proposals could bring in substantial revenue, but judged that the package was unlikely to deliver the claimed sums without real economic costs. Its biggest questions concerned the carbon tax’s uncertain yield, the practical difficulty of a wealth tax, and effects on work and investment.
The “striking a chord” wording is framing, not evidence of voter support: the information available here does not establish a poll showing that voters backed the tax pitch or that it caused Green support to rise. The subject is the party’s June 2024 general-election manifesto, not a verified statement of its policy in 2026.
What the Green Party proposed in 2024
The manifesto’s broad aim was to shift taxation away from employment and towards wealth and pollution. But that shorthand can obscure who would actually pay: some proposals targeted wealth, while others would reach high-earning workers or affect people more widely through prices.
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors| Proposal | What the 2024 plan said | Who or what could be affected |
|---|---|---|
| Annual wealth tax | The party’s background document described a tax on wealth in all forms, valued at current market value and assessed on UK-resident taxpayers through an extension of self-assessment. The document did not specify a rate or threshold. | People with taxable wealth; the design would require valuing assets and reporting them. |
| National Insurance | The CIOT’s manifesto summary reported an additional 1% on annual earnings above £50,270, taking the rate on that band to 8%. | Workers with earnings in that band, not only people whose income comes from wealth. |
| Investment income and capital gains | The proposals included aligning the treatment of income from investment with income from work, including capital-gains changes. | People receiving investment income or making taxable capital gains; precise rates and details are not specified here. |
| Carbon taxation | The manifesto included carbon taxes; the IFS discussed a claimed yield of more than £90 billion. | Potentially a broad range of emissions-producing activity, with the actual burden depending on design and how costs pass through. |
| VAT changes | Proposals included VAT reductions in areas such as hospitality and culture, and increases for financial services and private education. | Businesses and customers in the affected sectors, depending on how changes are passed through. |
| Other areas | The manifesto also included changes affecting inheritance, pensions, land and council tax. | The available details do not establish the specific rates or thresholds for these changes. |
So “taxing the rich” is an incomplete description. Wealth taxes are aimed at wealth, but National Insurance on higher earnings concerns employment income; pension tax-relief changes could reach workers on salaries the IFS described as “not terribly high”; and carbon taxes may be felt beyond the wealthiest households.
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What the headline revenue figures mean
The party’s £50–£70 billion estimate covers its personal-tax changes. It is not the same calculation as the IFS’s estimate of the scale of the whole manifesto package, and the IFS did not independently confirm the party’s figure.
| Figure | Attribution and scope |
|---|---|
| £50–£70 billion a year, in 2024 prices, by the end of the next parliament | Green Party of England and Wales estimate for its personal-tax changes, announced in 2024. |
| More than £170 billion a year in tax increases by the end of the next parliament | IFS description, in its 2024 manifesto reaction, of the overall tax increase proposed in the manifesto. |
| £160 billion increase in day-to-day public spending | IFS description of the manifesto’s spending increase in 2024. |
| £90 billion a year in additional capital spending | IFS description of the manifesto’s planned additional capital spending in 2024. |
| More than £90 billion from a carbon tax | Yield discussed by the IFS as a Green Party proposal in 2024; the IFS said it was doubtful. |
These are different estimates with different scopes. In particular, the party’s personal-tax figure should not be presented as an IFS costing, nor should the IFS’s totals for the wider tax and spending package be attributed to the party as its own published figures.
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Why the IFS questioned whether the plan would deliver
A carbon tax could erode its own tax base
The IFS doubted that a carbon tax could raise more than £90 billion reliably. If the tax works as intended and changes behaviour, emissions fall; with fewer emissions to tax, the revenue base shrinks. The eventual yield therefore depends not just on the headline rate but on how people and businesses respond. A forecast that does not make that interaction clear risks treating a changing tax base as if it were fixed.
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The party described valuing wealth at current market value and collecting the tax through an extension of self-assessment. The IFS said a wealth tax could raise revenue but would be tough to implement. Assets do not all have equally straightforward market values, and assessing them regularly would make the rules and administration consequential to the tax’s operation. The available information does not establish that these difficulties make a wealth tax impossible; it does mean that a revenue claim depends on workable valuation, reporting and compliance arrangements.
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Some measures could reach beyond the very wealthy
The IFS said higher National Insurance on earnings above £50,000 and restrictions on pension tax relief could raise substantial sums. It also warned that pension-relief restrictions could affect people on “not terribly high salaries”, including nurses and teachers. That matters when judging distribution: the question is not only how much a measure raises, but which workers and households bear it.
Work and investment responses affect the yield
The IFS expected the package to create disincentives to work and invest. If tax changes alter decisions about taking work, saving, investment or the timing of income, the revenue collected can differ from a simple estimate that assumes behaviour stays unchanged. The IFS’s point was not that every tax increase necessarily fails, but that the package’s projected sums should be assessed after likely responses and alongside the economic costs.
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Temporary receipts cannot reliably fund permanent commitments
The IFS also cautioned that temporary windfall taxes would not provide a durable funding source for permanent spending commitments. A one-off or short-lived revenue stream may contribute money in the period it is collected, but it cannot be assumed to recur at the same level year after year.
How to judge whether the pitch stands up
A useful assessment separates the political choice to raise taxes and spend more from the empirical question of whether these particular taxes can deliver the forecast revenue. For each measure, ask:
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- What is the baseline? A forecast should make clear what would happen without the tax change and how much revenue is genuinely additional.
- Does the estimate account for behaviour? Include changes in work, investment and emissions, rather than assuming the tax base remains unchanged.
- Is the revenue recurring? Distinguish durable annual revenue from temporary windfalls before using it to support long-term spending.
- Can the tax be administered? For a wealth tax, examine how assets would be valued, reported and assessed, and how compliance would work.
- Who bears the cost? Look beyond the policy label to its actual incidence, including higher-paid workers and people who are not among the very wealthy.
- Does the policy undermine its own yield? A tax intended to reduce pollution may succeed environmentally while generating less revenue as emissions fall.
In their 2024 manifesto reaction, IFS authors Carl Emmerson and Helen Miller concluded: “It is unlikely that the specific tax-raising measures they propose to help achieve all this would raise the sorts of sums they claim – and certainly not without real economic cost.” That is a judgement about the package’s fiscal feasibility and likely economic effects, not a complete verdict on whether its goals or distribution are fair or desirable.
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