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Renewable power is set for major growth by 2030, but the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) outlook does not expect the world to meet the COP28 goal of tripling renewable capacity by then. In its 2025 main case, the IEA projects about 4,600 GW of new global renewable power capacity from 2025 through 2030, with solar PV accounting for nearly 80% of the increase. That would put capacity at 2.6 times its 2022 level by 2030; an accelerated case reaches 2.8 times if governments and power systems address barriers to deployment.

How much renewable energy does the latest forecast expect by 2030?

The IEA’s Renewables 2025 executive summary projects about 4,600 GW of additional global renewable power capacity over 2025–2030. This is a forecast, not a guaranteed buildout. The report’s main case is based on current policies and market conditions, and it puts 2030 capacity at 2.6 times the 2022 level.

The COP28 goal is to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 from its 2022 level. The IEA’s accelerated case gets closer, at 2.8 times the 2022 level, but still falls short of tripling. Reaching that faster trajectory depends on implementation—especially policy certainty, shorter permitting timelines, grid investment, flexibility and reduced financing risk—not just announced targets.

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The IEA lowered its expected renewable capacity growth for 2025–2030 by 5% compared with its previous annual outlook. The change reflects policy, regulatory and market developments. The earlier figures are in the Renewables 2024 executive summary; the 2025 report is the newer baseline.

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What do the capacity and generation forecasts mean?

Capacity and generation describe different things. Capacity, measured in gigawatts (GW), is the maximum power generating equipment can produce under suitable conditions. Generation, measured in terawatt-hours (TWh), is the electricity actually produced over time. A larger capacity total does not translate one-for-one into electricity because output varies with weather, equipment availability and how often plants can run.

For electricity generation, the IEA’s Renewables 2025 renewable electricity chapter projects the following global changes:

Measure 2024 2030 projection
Renewable electricity generation 9,900 TWh 16,200 TWh
Renewables’ share of electricity generation 32% 43%

These figures are the IEA’s global estimates for 2024 and projections for 2030, respectively. The share is a portion of electricity generation, not of total energy use across electricity, transport, heating and industry.

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Which renewable technologies are expected to grow fastest?

Solar PV

Solar PV is expected to supply nearly 80% of the IEA’s projected 4,600 GW global capacity increase over 2025–2030. The IEA identifies low costs and comparatively fast permitting as important advantages behind its leading role.

Wind

Wind capacity is also expected to expand substantially. The IEA says the pace is constrained in some markets by supply-chain problems, higher costs and permitting delays.

Hydropower and geothermal

Hydropower contributes less to the projected new-capacity total than solar, while pumped-storage additions are expected to grow faster in part as power systems adapt to variable generation. The IEA also expects geothermal additions to increase. These technologies can complement wind and solar, although the outlook does not make them substitutes for the grid and flexibility investments needed to integrate variable output.

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What could change the forecast?

The IEA’s accelerated case depends on removing obstacles that can delay projects or limit the amount of renewable electricity a power system can use. The barriers and responses it identifies include:

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  • Policy and regulatory uncertainty: more predictable rules can reduce investment risk and help projects proceed.
  • Permitting delays: shorter, clearer approval timelines can speed construction, particularly for wind projects.
  • Grid constraints: investment in transmission and other grid infrastructure is needed to connect new generation and move electricity to where it is used.
  • Limited flexibility: storage, demand response, flexible demand and dispatchable power can help balance changing wind and solar output. Smart EV charging and heat pumps can make some electricity demand more adaptable.
  • Financing risk: lowering perceived risk can improve access to finance, especially where the cost of capital is a major obstacle.

Curtailment—when available renewable output is reduced because the system cannot use or transport it—and negative electricity prices in some markets are signs of a mismatch between generation, grid capacity and demand. Adding generating capacity alone does not resolve that mismatch.

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Will growth look the same in every region?

No. The 5% global forecast revision does not mean every region changed in the same direction. In Renewables 2025, the IEA revised its U.S. forecast down almost 50%, while its outlook was more positive than in the prior edition for India, Europe and most emerging and developing economies. These are regional changes in the IEA’s forecast, shaped by differing policy, regulatory and market conditions; they should not be read as uniform changes in installed capacity worldwide.

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What do longer-range projections say about 2050?

A 2026 joint review by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports the following global installed-capacity projections in its 2024 Year in Review: Climate-driven Global Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Demand:

Technology 2030 projection 2050 projection
Wind 3,040 GW 10,300 GW
Solar 5,457 GW 18,200 GW
Hydropower 1,465 GW 2,500 GW

These are projections reported in the IRENA/WMO review, not an interchangeable update to the IEA’s deployment scenario. The joint review focuses on climate variability and renewable-resource indicators. It cautions that national averages can hide substantial variation within countries and that detailed planning needs finer spatial analysis. Its climate-variability focus is also distinct from long-term climate change.

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How to read renewable-energy forecasts

  • Check whether a figure is installed capacity (GW), electricity generation (TWh) or a share of electricity generation (%).
  • Look for the baseline year and forecast period; a 2022-to-2030 capacity multiple is not the same measure as additions during 2025–2030.
  • Identify the report year and scenario. The IEA’s 2025 outlook revised its forecast from the 2024 edition, and its main and accelerated cases rely on different implementation conditions.
  • Treat long-range projections as scenario-dependent estimates, not promises of future construction or output.

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