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Flash drives and SD cards have become painfully expensive in 2026 because NAND Flash prices are rising amid AI-server demand, earlier production cuts, and limited near-term capacity expansion. The increase is real upstream, but retail prices will not rise uniformly: old inventory, promotions, product speed, capacity, and counterfeit listings can make individual cards look much cheaper or more expensive.
The important qualification is that AI data centers are not literally buying the same finished microSD cards used in cameras or Nintendo Switch consoles. AI infrastructure is competing for high-value enterprise SSDs, advanced NAND configurations, HBM, packaging, engineering capacity, and factory investment. Suppliers then prioritize the products with the strongest demand and margins, leaving consumer removable storage exposed to higher component costs and tighter allocation.
Key takeaways
- TrendForce forecast NAND Flash contract prices to rise 70–75% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026, but that figure does not mean every retail memory card will rise by the same percentage.
- USB flash drives, SD cards, and microSD cards use NAND Flash, so they can feel the effects of the same supply squeeze affecting enterprise SSDs, even though their finished products and specifications differ.
- TrendForce reported that the NAND market remained undersupplied throughout 2026 and forecast that supply constraints could ease in the second half of 2027; the forecast is not a guarantee of lower retail prices.
- SLC NAND is under especially severe specialized-market pressure, with TrendForce reporting more than 100% cumulative first-half 2026 contract-price increases, but SLC figures must not be applied directly to ordinary TLC consumer cards.
- Buy removable storage now when a device, trip, or project requires it; wait when the purchase is discretionary and an existing drive or temporary alternative is reliable.
- A suspiciously cheap high-capacity card can be counterfeit or unsuitable for sustained recording, so verify the exact model, device compatibility, and full capacity before storing important data.
Are flash drives and SD cards actually more expensive?
Yes, the underlying NAND market is substantially more expensive and tighter, but no single percentage describes every USB drive, SD card, or microSD card at retail.
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According to TrendForce’s March 31, 2026 market forecast, NAND Flash contract prices were expected to increase 70–75% quarter over quarter in the second quarter of 2026 as AI-server demand collided with supply constraints. A contract price is the price negotiated between suppliers and customers upstream; it is not the price printed on a retailer’s product page.
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The path from a NAND wafer to a card or flash drive has several stages:
- NAND manufacturers sell wafers or packaged memory to component and module customers.
- Module makers combine NAND with a controller, firmware, packaging, and sometimes testing or error-management features.
- Brands add validation, warranty coverage, industrial design, distribution, and marketing costs.
- Retailers set a list price and a transaction price based on inventory, competition, promotions, and expected replenishment costs.
Those stages create a time lag. A retailer can continue selling inventory purchased before the latest component increase. A manufacturer can absorb part of the increase to protect market share. A store can end a promotion without any new wholesale change. Conversely, a model can jump in price quickly when old inventory is exhausted and the next shipment costs more.
That is why one 256GB microSD card may still be discounted while a 1TB model, professional UHS-II card, or high-capacity USB drive becomes much more expensive. Capacity, NAND type, controller, speed rating, sustained-write capability, warranty, included accessories, seller, and inventory age all matter.
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Samsung’s U.S. product pages provide manufacturer-listed signals, not a market-wide U.S. price index. When checked on August 18, 2026, Samsung listed the following BAR Plus USB flash-drive prices:
| Samsung BAR Plus capacity | Listed price | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| 64GB | $31.99 | Manufacturer-listed price for a basic capacity tier; not a market average |
| 128GB | $39.99 | Manufacturer-listed price; retailer pricing may differ |
| 256GB | $79.99 | Manufacturer-listed price; capacity is only one part of the comparison |
| 512GB | $145.99 | Manufacturer-listed price for a larger model; do not infer a universal per-gigabyte trend |
The prices came from Samsung’s BAR Plus listing. Samsung also listed its 128GB USB Type-C flash drive at $39.99, although the product was shown as out of stock when crawled, and its 256GB USB Type-C model at $79.99. These observations demonstrate why availability and product design matter, but they do not prove that every competing drive has followed the same price curve.
Historical comparisons also require care. Samsung’s April 2023 PRO Plus announcement listed a 512GB PRO Plus microSD card at $59.99 and a 256GB PRO Plus SD card at $37.99. Those were launch MSRPs from 2023, not August 2026 transaction prices. A direct comparison would need the same model generation, seller, region, condition, and price type.
Why does AI affect USB sticks and memory cards?
AI affects USB sticks and memory cards indirectly through shared semiconductor capacity, supplier priorities, and investment decisions—not because data centers are filling servers with consumer SD cards.
AI data centers create demand for high-capacity enterprise SSDs, high-performance NAND configurations, HBM, and other memory used by training datasets, checkpoints, inference workloads, and data pipelines. According to TrendForce’s June 16, 2026 analysis, suppliers were prioritizing HBM and advanced-layer 3D NAND while factory space and investment remained constrained.
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The supply-chain mechanism looks like this:
AI and data-center orders → supplier allocation toward higher-value products → tighter or more expensive consumer component supply → higher module costs → retail price pressure.
Enterprise SSDs and removable cards are not interchangeable finished products. They can use different NAND generations, packages, controllers, firmware, endurance targets, qualification procedures, and sales channels. A NAND die designed or selected for an enterprise SSD cannot simply be assumed to drop into an SD card with identical performance and reliability.
The relevant connection is that manufacturers operate within a finite industry ecosystem. Factory capacity, advanced-layer production, packaging, engineering attention, capital expenditure, and supplier allocation can be directed toward products that generate better returns. Lower-margin consumer flash products may receive less favorable supply conditions even when consumer demand remains large.
Why are RAM, SSDs, USB drives, and SD cards not one market?
RAM and removable storage are affected by overlapping investment pressures, but they are different memory markets with different products and constraints.
| Category | Primary memory technology | Typical AI-related connection | Why the distinction matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| System RAM | DRAM | AI accelerators rely heavily on high-bandwidth memory and related DRAM investment | DRAM and NAND are not interchangeable products |
| Enterprise and consumer SSDs | NAND Flash | AI servers need large, fast storage for datasets, checkpoints, and pipelines | Enterprise demand can improve supplier margins and allocation priorities |
| USB flash drives | NAND Flash plus a controller | Consumer products feel indirect component and allocation pressure | Retail prices depend heavily on inventory, controller, speed, and brand |
| SD and microSD cards | NAND Flash plus a controller | Consumer and specialized removable products face the same broad NAND cycle | Video speed, endurance, device compatibility, and counterfeit risk are decisive |
According to Tom’s Hardware’s July 2026 coverage of TrendForce data, NAND contract prices were forecast to rise another 10–15% quarter over quarter in Q3 2026. The slower projected increase does not mean NAND had returned to normal; it means the rate of increase was expected to moderate.
What changed in the NAND market?
The old assumption that removable storage automatically becomes cheaper every year was based on a recurring NAND cycle: manufacturers expanded output, supply exceeded demand, prices fell, production was cut, prices recovered, and capacity investment eventually resumed.
The 2026 squeeze combines several forces:
- Manufacturers had already reduced or constrained production during the previous downturn.
- AI infrastructure added a large and valuable source of demand for enterprise storage and advanced memory.
- Near-term capacity expansion is limited because new factories, equipment, process transitions, and yields take time.
- Consumer electronics demand has been comparatively weak, reducing the incentive to build large amounts of dedicated low-margin consumer capacity.
- Suppliers can earn better returns from enterprise products and may prioritize those products when capacity is scarce.
TrendForce’s July 21, 2026 update said the NAND market remained undersupplied throughout 2026 because of AI-related demand and limited capacity expansion. The same update forecast that NAND supply growth could outpace demand in 2027, with constraints potentially easing during the second half of 2027.
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Which removable-storage products are most exposed?
Large, fast, specialized, or newer removable-storage products are generally more exposed to supply stress than basic older consumer products, although product-level outcomes remain unpredictable.
| Product type | Likely exposure | Why | Buyer caution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large-capacity microSD and SD cards | Higher | They require denser NAND and often carry stronger demand from cameras, handhelds, drones, and phones | Confirm the device’s maximum supported capacity and file-system requirements |
| High-speed video cards | Higher | Controllers, validation, NAND binning, and sustained-write requirements add cost | Match Video Speed Class and sustained-write needs to the camera or recorder |
| UHS-II and professional formats | Higher | Specialized interfaces and performance qualification narrow the product pool | Use a compatible host and reader; a UHS-II card does not deliver UHS-II speed in every device |
| High-capacity USB drives | Higher | They consume more NAND and may use faster controllers or premium enclosures | Check write performance, not only the advertised sequential read speed |
| Industrial, embedded, SLC, or high-endurance flash | Very high in specialized supply | Production is more limited and demand is less interchangeable | Do not apply SLC price forecasts directly to ordinary TLC consumer cards |
| Basic 32GB or 64GB consumer cards | Potentially lower | Older inventory, slower specifications, and promotions may cushion pricing | A low price may reflect lower endurance, speed, warranty, or authenticity |
TrendForce reported that cumulative contract-price increases for NOR Flash and SLC NAND exceeded 100% in the first half of 2026. TrendForce separately projected SLC NAND prices could rise 120–170% in the second half of 2026 compared with the first half. Those figures describe specialized SLC NAND, not ordinary TLC microSD cards; TrendForce’s SLC forecast should not be generalized to all removable storage.
Why do SD-card prices look especially irrational?
SD-card prices can look irrational because capacity, performance, compatibility, and retail presentation do not scale in a straight line.
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Speed claims also need context. “Up to” read speed depends on the host device, reader, interface, test conditions, and file sizes. A camera recording 4K or 8K video needs reliable sustained writes, while copying a few documents mostly stresses convenience and basic transfer performance. A card that is fast in a synthetic read test can still be a poor choice for continuous recording.
Device compatibility creates another source of misleading comparisons. SD, SDHC, SDXC, and SDUC support are not universal across old and new devices. UHS-I and UHS-II interfaces differ. Video Speed Class and Application Performance Class address different workloads. The device manufacturer’s current manual is the authority for maximum capacity, supported file system, speed class, and recording requirements.
Should you buy removable storage now or wait?
The sensible decision depends more on the deadline and workload than on trying to predict the exact bottom of the NAND cycle.
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| Situation | Best approach | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Your camera, drone, handheld, phone, or computer needs storage for an imminent trip or project | Buy now, but select the required capacity and speed rather than the most expensive tier | A future discount is less valuable than usable storage when the device is needed |
| You will record irreplaceable photos, video, or work files soon | Buy a reputable, compatible card now and create separate backups | Reliability and data protection matter more than a speculative price improvement |
| You are replacing a working card only to gain capacity, with no deadline | Consider waiting or using an existing drive temporarily | Discretionary purchases provide the most flexibility while prices are volatile |
| You mainly want a premium speed tier your device cannot exploit | Wait or buy a lower tier that meets the device’s documented requirement | Unused interface speed is wasted money |
| You are considering buying several years of removable storage because of headlines | Do not panic-buy | Flash storage is cyclical, and stored cards can fail, become obsolete, or be forgotten |
TrendForce’s forecast for possible supply-demand improvement in the second half of 2027 supports waiting for discretionary purchases if your existing storage is adequate. The forecast does not guarantee that every retail category will fall at the same time, and a new AI spending surge or supply disruption could delay relief.
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Do not treat removable storage as a backup simply because it is inexpensive or portable. Important files should exist in at least two additional locations, such as a computer and a separate external drive or cloud service. A flash drive or memory card can fail, be lost, be overwritten, or be counterfeit.
How can you avoid a false bargain?
The safest way to buy during a storage squeeze is to verify the product and test the actual media before trusting it.
- Buy through an authorized retailer or the manufacturer. Marketplace listings can change seller, inventory, and product identity while retaining old reviews.
- Check the exact model number. Brand name, capacity, and product-family name are not enough; different generations can have different controllers, speeds, warranties, and NAND.
- Match the card to the device. Confirm SD, SDHC, SDXC, or SDUC support; maximum capacity; UHS-I or UHS-II compatibility; Video Speed Class; Application Performance Class; and file-system requirements in the device manual.
- Test the full capacity. Use a full-capacity write/read verification tool on a new card or drive. A fake product may report the advertised capacity but overwrite earlier data once the real memory limit is reached.
- Test sustained writes for recording use. A dashcam, surveillance camera, drone, or video camera needs endurance and sustained-write behavior, not just a high peak read number.
- Keep the receipt and warranty information. Price volatility and counterfeit risk make documented purchase channels especially valuable.
Be suspicious of an unusually cheap high-capacity card, especially when a listing combines several capacities, sellers, or product photos. Marketplace reviews are not sufficient evidence when the seller or listing changes frequently. A card that benchmarks slowly is inconvenient; a card that silently loses data is dangerous.
Which products make sense for different workloads?
The best purchase is determined by the connector, host device, workload, sustained-write requirement, and backup plan—not by the highest capacity on the product page.
| Workload | What to prioritize | What to avoid |
|---|---|---|
| Ordinary document transfer | A reputable basic USB drive with the connector your computers use | Paying for premium speed that the host cannot use |
| USB-C phone, tablet, or laptop transfer | A native USB-C flash drive, such as Samsung’s USB Type-C line | Assuming USB-C alone guarantees high sustained-write performance |
| Camera, drone, or action-camera recording | The capacity, UHS interface, Video Speed Class, and sustained-write performance specified by the device | Choosing from a read-speed number alone |
| Handheld gaming | Device-supported capacity and compatibility first, then adequate application and transfer performance | Buying a card larger than the device supports |
| Dashcam or continuous surveillance | A documented high-endurance card matched to the recorder | A cheap high-capacity card designed only for occasional file storage |
| Primary backup | An external SSD or hard drive plus a second copy in another location | Using one flash drive as the only copy of important data |
Samsung’s BAR Plus USB flash-drive listing is one example of a branded product family with USB 3.2 branding, a metal body, water-resistant design, and an advertised read speed of up to 400MB/s on larger models. Those are product signals, not a guarantee that every computer, phone, file pattern, or drive will achieve that speed. The drive is a poor substitute for an external SSD when sustained write performance is important.
Samsung’s USB Type-C flash drive is more naturally suited to devices with native USB-C ports. Samsung listed the 256GB model at $79.99 and the 128GB model at $39.99 when checked in August 2026, with the 128GB listing shown out of stock at that time. Availability and price can change quickly, so buyers should verify the current official listing and compatibility before ordering.
Samsung’s PRO Plus SD and microSD announcement is useful for understanding a product family and historical MSRP positioning, but its listed prices date from April 2023. Those historical MSRPs should not be mistaken for current 2026 prices.
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Could removable-storage prices fall sooner—or rise further?
Prices could ease sooner if NAND manufacturers bring capacity online faster than expected, production yields improve, AI spending slows, PC and phone demand weakens, or an inventory correction leaves suppliers with excess stock.
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Prices could remain elevated or rise further if hyperscalers continue locking up supply, AI infrastructure spending accelerates, consumer products lose allocation priority, specialized flash remains constrained, or new cameras, phones, and handhelds create a demand surge.
Weak consumer demand complicates the picture. Tom’s Hardware reported that consumer demand for memory cards and USB drives was sluggish as higher costs reached affordability limits. Weak demand can prevent brands from passing every upstream increase directly to buyers, but it can also reduce the incentive to expand low-margin consumer supply.
The result may be an uneven market: some products stay on promotion until old stock disappears, some models rise sharply at replenishment, and some premium or specialized products remain expensive even after basic cards stabilize.
What does the NAND shortage mean for buyers?
The era of automatically cheaper removable storage has been interrupted, not necessarily ended permanently. The upstream shortage is real, AI demand is an important contributor, and 2026 prices may remain under pressure; however, a NAND contract forecast is not a retail price forecast for every SD card or flash drive.
Buy for a real need, compare the same model and speed tier, follow the device manufacturer’s compatibility requirements, and test new media before trusting it. If the purchase is optional, waiting is reasonable because TrendForce forecasts potential supply relief in the second half of 2027. Panic-buying several years of removable storage is not a substitute for choosing reliable media and maintaining separate backups.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will SD-card prices keep rising until 2027?
SD-card prices may remain volatile through 2026, but no source establishes that every SD card will keep rising until 2027. TrendForce forecasts that NAND supply growth could outpace demand and that supply constraints could ease in the second half of 2027, although the forecast can change.
Does a 70–75% NAND price increase mean my microSD card will cost 75% more?
No. The 70–75% figure refers to TrendForce’s forecast for NAND contract prices in Q2 2026, not a universal retail increase for microSD cards. Retail prices also depend on old inventory, promotions, capacity, speed, brand, warranty, and seller.
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No. SLC NAND serves more specialized industrial, embedded, and high-endurance uses than ordinary consumer TLC removable storage. TrendForce’s SLC price forecasts show specialized supply stress but should not be applied directly to every SD or microSD card.
Should I buy a memory card now or wait?
Buy now if a camera, drone, handheld, phone, or project needs compatible storage soon and the current price is acceptable. Consider waiting when the purchase is discretionary and an existing drive or temporary storage option is reliable.
How do I check whether a cheap high-capacity card is genuine?
Buy from an authorized seller, verify the exact model number, and run a full-capacity write/read verification before storing important data. A counterfeit card can report its advertised capacity while corrupting data after the genuine memory limit is exceeded.
The Bottom Line
Bottom line: Flash drives and SD cards are feeling a genuine NAND squeeze, but the retail market is uneven. AI is affecting consumer storage through shared capacity and supplier priorities, not by directly taking finished SD cards from shoppers. Buy what a real workload requires, avoid suspicious bargains, and treat TrendForce’s possible second-half-2027 relief as a reason to wait on optional purchases—not as a promise.
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