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Flood exposure is increasing in studied Himalayan catchments, while government assessments describe settlements and urban growth in flood-prone parts of Nepal. A 2026 study found more building area near river channels and inside modeled glacial lake outburst flood zones between 2016 and 2023. Those findings show changing exposure in particular study areas—not that all Nepal is building in risk zones, or that construction alone caused the increase.
What the evidence says about rising exposure
A 2026 study published in Scientific Reports examined high-mountain catchments in Nepal and transboundary parts of India and China. It measured building footprints against two different hazard-related indicators. In the study area, building area within 0–50 metres of height above nearest drainage (HAND) increased 46% from 2016 to 2023. Building area inside the study’s modeled glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) extents increased 77% over the same period.
These are exposure measures: they indicate that more mapped building area is in places associated with potential flooding. HAND is a measure of vertical elevation relative to the nearest drainage, not a simple horizontal distance from a river and not a forecast that a building will flood. A modeled GLOF extent represents a potential inundation area, not a record of a flood that occurred.
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The study also estimates that 18% of the study-area catchment population—293,800 people—lived within 0–50 metres HAND in 2026. This is a modeled population exposure estimate, not a count of people certain to be flooded. The study’s geography and methods matter: these figures are not a uniform estimate for Nepal as a whole.
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How the national and Terai figures differ
Separate government assessments describe flood exposure at different scales and with different definitions. Their figures provide context, but should not be combined with the 2026 catchment measurements as if they were one consistent national time series.
| Source and geography | Measure | What the figure means |
|---|---|---|
| Nepal Ministry of Forests and Environment, 2021 rural and urban settlement assessment | About 8% of Nepal | Area the assessment classifies as flood-prone; the figure depends on that report’s definitions. |
| Nepal Ministry of Forests and Environment, 2021 assessment | 3,443 flood events during 1971–2019 | Events recorded over the report’s specified period, not a current annual rate. |
| Department of Water Resources and Irrigation; six prioritized Terai basins | 29,356 hectares and 70,428 people | Exposure under a 1-in-50-year flood case for those basins, not a nationwide count. The publication page does not state a date. |
The Terai basin estimate concerns river-flood exposure in six prioritized basins; it is not interchangeable with high-mountain HAND or modeled GLOF measurements. A GLOF occurs when water released from a glacial lake travels downstream, while river flooding can result from intense rainfall and other conditions. Nepal Disaster Report 2024 identifies GLOFs as a hazard for Himalayan settlements and downstream areas, but does not quantify a construction trend.
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Why settlements remain exposed
Nepal’s 2021 Ministry of Forests and Environment assessment describes informal settlements in rapidly growing cities on exposed riverbank land. It notes: “Many such settlements are located on land exposed to extreme weather such as river banks that are prone to flash floods.” The assessment also says intense rainfall can increase flood losses, particularly in flood-prone Terai areas, where impermeable urban surfaces can increase runoff.
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The 2026 study mentions informal settlement expansion and tourism-driven construction along some river corridors. That is a site-specific observation from its study area, not proof of a nationwide development pattern. The evidence supports concern about growth in exposed locations, but not the claim that new construction is increasing in every vulnerable part of Nepal.
Exposure is not the same as vulnerability or damage
Exposure means people, buildings or other assets are located where a hazard could reach them. Vulnerability is about how susceptible they are and their capacity to withstand, respond to and recover from an event. Income, housing security or tenure, and access to social and human resources can all affect vulnerability.
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More mapped building area in a hazard-related zone does not by itself establish how many people will be harmed, how severe losses would be, or whether a particular building is unsafe. Those outcomes also depend on the flood’s probability and intensity, building conditions, drainage and protection, warning time, and residents’ ability to respond. The 2026 study notes that consistent high-resolution exposure data are scarce and that building-footprint datasets vary in accuracy and completeness, so its results should be read as measured estimates rather than a complete census of risk.
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The evidence makes safer siting and better land-use decisions central to reducing future exposure, alongside measures that manage water and prepare communities. Relevant approaches include keeping new development out of mapped flood pathways where feasible, improving urban drainage and flood protection, and strengthening early warning and community response. The available figures identify a planning problem; they do not evaluate the effectiveness of any specific intervention.
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For residents and decision-makers, the key question is not simply whether a place is labeled “flood-prone.” It is which hazard is being considered, what map or measurement defines the exposed area, how current and reliable that information is, and what protection and response capacity exists. A river-flood map, a HAND measure and a modeled GLOF extent describe different aspects of exposure and should not be treated as equivalent.
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