Use CISA’s Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog to identify vulnerabilities known to have been exploited, and use FIRST’s Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) to estimate near-term exploitation likelihood for vulnerabilities without that confirmation. Neither signal decides patch order by itself. Check whether the affected software is present and reachable, how important the asset is, what harm exploitation could cause, which controls are in place, and when remediation is feasible.
What exploit intelligence and exploit prediction tell you
These signals answer different questions. Exploit intelligence records evidence of exploitation; exploit prediction estimates the likelihood of exploitation over a defined future period. Pair either with technical severity and your organization’s asset context rather than treating one number or list as a complete risk score.
| Signal | What it tells you | Time orientation | Useful for | What it cannot decide alone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CISA KEV | Exploitation is known to have occurred in the wild. | Historical confirmation; current urgency still depends on context. | Elevating vulnerabilities with confirmed exploitation evidence. | Whether the affected software is present, exposed, or consequential in your environment. |
| FIRST EPSS probability | Estimated probability of exploitation activity in the next 30 days. | Forward-looking forecast. | Comparing exploitation likelihood for vulnerabilities without confirmed exploitation. | Local exposure, consequence, or complete organization-specific risk. |
| EPSS percentile | How a vulnerability ranks relative to other scored CVEs. | Comparison with the current population. | Understanding relative position among vulnerabilities. | The absolute chance of exploitation. |
| CVSS | Technical severity characteristics and potential seriousness. | Descriptive severity. | Understanding potential technical impact. | Whether exploitation is happening or likely soon. |
| Asset and business context | Local exposure and likely consequence. | Specific to your organization. | Setting practical remediation urgency and order. | Threat likelihood across the wider CVE population. |
KEV: confirmed exploitation evidence
CISA describes KEV as an authoritative catalog of vulnerabilities exploited in the wild and recommends using it as an input to vulnerability-management prioritization. A KEV match is a strong urgency signal, but it does not establish a particular future attack rate or prove that your organization’s affected product version is exposed. CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog.
EPSS: a 30-day likelihood estimate
FIRST defines EPSS as a data-driven model that estimates the probability a publicly disclosed CVE will be exploited in the wild within the next 30 days. That is a forecast, not proof that an attack has occurred. EPSS scores are updated daily, so note the score date when documenting a decision or report. FIRST EPSS FAQ and FIRST EPSS overview.
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Severity and local risk are separate
CVSS describes technical severity; it does not establish exploitation or near-term likelihood. EPSS likewise does not know whether your instance is reachable, what business service it supports, or what controls limit an attack. FIRST cautions against multiplying EPSS probability by CVSS Base and presenting the result as probability times severity: that calculation has no interpretable probabilistic meaning. FIRST EPSS FAQ.
Which should come first: a high-EPSS vulnerability or one in KEV?
As a default, treat confirmed exploitation in KEV as the stronger urgency signal. Use EPSS to rank the broader set that lacks confirmed exploitation. That does not mean every KEV item must outrank every other finding regardless of circumstances: confirm the affected software is present, then compare exposure, likely consequence, controls, and the time needed to remediate.
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For example, a high EPSS score on software that is absent or isolated may be less urgent than a lower-scoring vulnerability on an internet-facing, business-critical system. That ordering is an operational judgment based on likelihood and local impact, not a universal rule supplied by either signal. FIRST recommends considering the environment alongside EPSS and treating a KEV appearance as active exploitation evidence. FIRST guidance on using EPSS.
A practical sequence for prioritizing patches
- Check KEV and current vendor mitigation guidance. Identify whether the CVE is listed, then verify the affected product and version against your inventory. A catalog match should raise urgency, but a product or version mismatch can change what action is relevant. Use CISA KEV as an input to your prioritization process.
- For vulnerabilities without confirmed exploitation, consult current EPSS. Use the probability as the likelihood estimate. Do not mistake the percentile for a probability: the probability is the estimated chance over the forecast horizon, while the percentile is a relative rank. Record the score date because EPSS is updated daily. See the FIRST EPSS FAQ.
- Establish local exposure and consequence. Confirm software presence and reachability, including internet exposure; assess asset criticality, plausible harm, and compensating controls. A vulnerability on an unreachable or non-existent instance may call for a different response from the same vulnerability on an exposed, high-impact system.
- Account for urgency and feasibility. Check whether a fix or mitigation is available, operational constraints, and the time until the next remediation window. If patching must wait, document the reason and apply suitable compensating controls under your organization’s process.
- Refresh the evidence as decisions and patch cycles evolve. KEV membership and EPSS values can change. Recheck them at a cadence that fits your risk and remediation cycles; do not present an old EPSS score as current.
How to interpret edge cases
A low EPSS score does not cancel KEV evidence
KEV and EPSS measure different things: one records known exploitation, while the other estimates future likelihood. FIRST advises treating a vulnerability appearing in KEV as actively exploited and prioritizing it accordingly, even if its EPSS probability is low. FIRST EPSS FAQ.
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A high percentile is not a high probability by itself
Read the probability when you need the model’s estimated likelihood within 30 days. Read the percentile to see how that probability compares with other scored CVEs. The percentile is not an absolute chance of exploitation.
Absence from KEV or a low score is not proof of safety
EPSS relies on observable signals and exploitation activity available through its data sources; it cannot guarantee that every real-world attack will be observed. Consider credible direct evidence of active exploitation on its own merits rather than assuming that a missing KEV listing or low EPSS score rules it out. FIRST EPSS FAQ.
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Do not turn EPSS and CVSS into a made-up risk score
EPSS estimates likelihood, while severity and local impact describe different dimensions. Multiplying EPSS by CVSS Base does not produce a meaningful probability-times-severity result; use organizational risk methods that explicitly account for exposure and consequence instead.
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A useful vulnerability-management process keeps the inputs distinct: record KEV status, the dated EPSS probability and percentile, severity information, asset exposure, likely business impact, existing controls, and remediation constraints. Then make and document the priority decision. This lets a team explain why a confirmed-exploitation issue was accelerated, why a forecast changed, or why local exposure altered the order without pretending that any single signal is the organization’s full risk score. FIRST’s EPSS usage guidance discusses combining the estimate with exploitation evidence and environmental context.
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