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Extreme heat is an emerging risk for life and health insurers and occupational pension providers, according to a preliminary assessment published by the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) on 30 September 2026. EIOPA says financial impacts are currently limited, but the risks could grow over coming decades as heat affects mortality, illness and the assumptions used to estimate longevity.
What EIOPA’s warning covers
The assessment concerns how climate-related heat may affect life and health insurance and occupational pension provision. It is not a claim that every insurer has already suffered large direct losses. Exposure varies with the products an organisation offers and the characteristics of its portfolio.
EIOPA identifies extreme heat as the leading climate-related liability risk for the sectors it assessed. The concern is that heat-related changes in health and death rates could alter claims and the assumptions underpinning insurance and pension business models. EIOPA’s report publication page describes the assessment as an analysis of climate change’s impacts on life and health insurance and potential emerging risks for insurance and IORP providers.
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EIOPA’s framework considers three related channels:
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- Mortality: changes in death rates can affect claims and mortality assumptions.
- Morbidity: heat-related illness can affect sickness-related claims and health costs.
- Longevity: changes in life-expectancy assumptions can alter pension and insurance liabilities.
The regulator’s illustrative scoring framework estimates heatwave impacts across types of undertakings, lines of business and countries. It uses hazard, vulnerability and exposure metrics, broadly aligned with EIOPA’s approach to assessing non-life insurers’ underwriting exposure to physical climate risk. The available announcement does not provide country rankings or detailed numerical model outputs.
Which insurance lines may be most affected?
EIOPA points to the following lines as among those most exposed in its assessment. This is not a ranking of expected losses: effects differ by product and portfolio, and the risk channels do not all move in the same direction.
| Business segment | Lines identified by EIOPA | Relevant risk channels |
|---|---|---|
| Non-life | Medical expense, income protection and workers’ compensation | Health-related morbidity and mortality; effects depend on the coverage and portfolio |
| Life | Similar-to-life health insurance and other non-participating life insurance | Mortality, morbidity and longevity assumptions, with effects varying by product |
Heat-related risks may put pressure on insurers’ own funds through products exposed to mortality and health impacts. EIOPA also notes that longevity adjustments may partly offset those effects, so the net financial impact is not necessarily uniformly negative.
Why EIOPA says current financial impacts remain limited
EIOPA attributes the currently limited financial impact to offsetting factors, widespread public-sector healthcare coverage and diversification across portfolios. It expects the risks to increase over coming decades, but the announcement does not quantify the future increase or establish that it will be the same for every country, insurer or pension provider.
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What the reported heatwave figures mean
In its 30 September 2026 announcement, EIOPA said heatwaves had caused around 300,000 deaths in Europe since 2000, and that about 97% of fatalities linked to extreme-weather and climate events in Europe since 2000 were attributed to heatwaves. These are figures reported by EIOPA with those geographic and time qualifications; they should not be read as a separate estimate of insurance losses.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the warning matters now
EIOPA Chair Petra Hielkema said climate change can have less visible consequences for human health than the damage caused by floods, storms and wildfires. She described the study as preliminary and said heat could become a material risk factor for certain insurance lines and pension providers, while stressing the role of offsets and diversification. That distinction is central: the assessment flags a developing risk for particular business lines, rather than asserting a uniform or already material loss across the market.
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