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Researchers have mapped potential climatic refuges in Panama where conditions may be less suitable for severe chytrid fungus infections while still supporting harlequin toads. The maps identify candidate sites—not proven fungus-free havens or evidence that the frogs have recovered. Surveys are underway, and future release trials are intended to test whether the modeled refuges help frogs survive.
Where might harlequin frogs find refuge?
The candidate refuges are places in Panama where seasonal temperature and humidity patterns may make Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) less suitable for medium- or high-intensity infections while remaining usable by harlequin toads. Researchers used models combining disease suitability and seasonal conditions to rank possible release locations and help find wild populations. The Smithsonian’s 2026 account describes the findings as a conservation-planning tool, not a confirmed recovery: Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute.
The study reports that most of the harlequin toad species considered persist at sites where more than 80% of seasons were unsuitable for medium- and high-intensity infections. That is a seasonal model result for those sites; it does not mean 80% of frogs were saved, that the sites are fungus-free, or that released frogs have demonstrated a survival advantage.
What does the fungus do, and is it gone from these sites?
Bd causes chytridiomycosis, a disease that has contributed to amphibian declines. The Smithsonian says Bd has spread through Central and South America since the 1970s. Its severity varies with temperature and humidity, so the fungus can occur in a region even when local seasonal conditions are less favorable for severe infection.
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The 2026 report says the pathogen occurs across almost all of the historical range of Atelopus, while disease severity varies. A modeled low-suitability season is therefore not the same as absence of Bd, and a climate model alone cannot establish whether a frog is infected or will survive.
Can harlequin toads persist where Bd is present?
Yes, field findings show that Atelopus and Bd can both be detected in Panama, but detection does not by itself reveal disease outcomes or population size. A 2025 peer-reviewed environmental DNA (eDNA) study developed and validated assays for three imperiled species—Atelopus varius, A. zeteki, and A. chiriquiensis—and used them alongside a Bd assay in rainforest streams. Researchers confirmed Atelopus at sampled locations across three regions, detected Bd DNA at most historical sites, and found that Panama’s Bd samples belonged to the Global Panzootic Lineage. The study is described by the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute.
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Water-sample Bd concentration correlated with stream characteristics and the local amphibian-community pathogen load. eDNA can help researchers survey rare hosts and pathogens without capturing frogs, but DNA detection is not a census of living frog abundance and does not prove that a detected frog is diseased or resistant.
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The only species the 2026 Smithsonian account reports at sites suitable for Bd is the variable harlequin toad, Atelopus varius. The authors say this is consistent with evidence that the species may have evolved resistance to chytrid. That remains a possible explanation, not a confirmed mechanism or blanket protection for the species.
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Sites can differ in both seasonal disease suitability and habitat suitability for the target toad. Researchers therefore need field evidence that frogs persist at a candidate location, alongside environmental information, before deciding whether it is suitable for a conservation release.
Does the research mean Panama’s harlequin frogs are recovering?
No recovery or successful reintroduction has been demonstrated by the refuge maps. Researchers have begun surveying candidate sites for habitat suitability and possible release trials. The intended next step is to test whether the conditions identified by the models translate into better outcomes for released frogs. As STRI staff scientist and study co-author Roberto Ibáñez put it, “These tools will allow us to experimentally test the climate refugia hypothesis through future release trials.”
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Potential sites need to be evaluated on more than a favorable model score. Useful considerations include:
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- Whether the site provides appropriate habitat for the particular Atelopus species.
- Whether field surveys find frogs persisting there.
- Whether any release can be monitored well enough to assess survival and disease outcomes.
Brian Gratwicke, conservation biologist at the Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute and senior author, said mapping refuges provides a way to rank release sites where animals may have a better chance of survival. Lead author Carrie Lewis said persistent wild populations could provide genes to strengthen populations under human care and create opportunities to augment wild populations. Those are potential conservation benefits, not reported outcomes of completed releases.
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Could climate change create new refuges?
The models also forecast some places that are currently suitable for Bd but could become unsuitable in coming years. That is not a guaranteed benefit. The researchers caution that climate change could harm harlequin toads adapted to cooler mountain habitats; changing conditions may affect both the pathogen and the frogs.
How does the broader conservation effort fit in?
In May 2025, the Bezos Earth Fund announced a $2 million grant for a five-year regional Latin American amphibian initiative involving STRI and the Amphibian Survival Alliance, with the Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute collaborating. The announcement describes captive populations as part of wider efforts to secure amphibian futures; it does not establish that the grant specifically funds every 2026 refuge survey or that refuge trials have succeeded. See the Bezos Earth Fund announcement.
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