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Dell’s initial forecast was at least $15 billion in AI-server shipments during fiscal 2026—not a report of $15 billion already sold. Dell announced that outlook in February 2025, then raised it to $20 billion in August. The distinction matters: both figures were management guidance, and the later FY2026 results release did not state the realized annual AI-server shipment total.
What Dell forecast in February 2025
In its February 27, 2025, FY2025 fourth-quarter results, Dell Technologies forecast FY2026 revenue of $101 billion to $105 billion and said it expected at least $15 billion in AI-server shipments. Dell reported $95.6 billion in revenue for FY2025. These are company-reported figures and outlook, not independently verified market statistics. Dell’s FY2025 results release
The fiscal label is essential. Dell’s FY2026 is not calendar 2025: Dell’s fiscal year runs on its own schedule. The $15 billion figure belongs to the fiscal-year outlook issued in February 2025, rather than a claim that Dell had already completed $15 billion of sales that calendar year.
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Why Dell’s COO said the outlook was optimistic
Jeff Clarke, Dell’s vice chairman and chief operating officer, tied his optimism to the growing computing demands of AI models. On the FY2025 Q4 earnings call, he pointed to reasoning models, multimodal models, and systems becoming larger. “These reasoning models will consume more computational capability. They’re moving to be multimodal, which even consumes more. I kind of like where this is going. We’re optimistic.” FY2025 Q4 earnings-call transcript
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Clarke also emphasized that Dell was setting the expectation early in its fiscal year: “The message that I really wanted to drive in our remarks is on day 27 of the fiscal year, we’re trying to communicate that we are at least $15 billion in AI shipments.” This was management’s view of anticipated demand, not a guarantee or a completed-sales figure.
Dell’s pitch was broader than selling a server chassis. Clarke described an integrated commercial offer that can include systems, networking, storage, deployment services, and financing. The transcript also mentions PowerEdge 9680 in the company’s AI-server pipeline. That context helps explain Dell’s positioning, but it does not establish independent demand or current retail availability for a specific model.
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What the $9 billion backlog did—and did not—mean
At the February 2025 results announcement, Dell reported approximately $9 billion in AI-server backlog. A backlog represents orders awaiting fulfillment; it is not the same as completed shipments or recognized revenue. It offered a snapshot of demand already in Dell’s pipeline, but it should not be added to the $15 billion outlook as though both were sales.
Dell also reported $6.6 billion in Q4 FY2025 Servers and Networking revenue, up 37% year over year. That segment includes traditional server and networking business as well as AI-related activity, so it is not an AI-server revenue figure. Dell’s FY2025 results release
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Dell raised its FY2026 target to $20 billion
By August 28, 2025, Dell said it had shipped $10 billion in AI solutions during the first half of FY2026 and raised its FY2026 AI-server shipment guidance from at least $15 billion to $20 billion. The $10 billion figure covers AI solutions, while the $20 billion outlook is specifically described as AI-server shipment guidance; the different labels should not be treated as interchangeable. Dell’s FY2026 Q2 results release Jeff Clarke’s August 2025 post
| Announcement | Fiscal period | AI figure | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2025 | FY2026 | At least $15 billion | Initial AI-server shipment guidance |
| August 2025 | FY2026 | $10 billion | AI-solution shipments in the first half of FY2026 |
| August 2025 | FY2026 | $20 billion | Raised AI-server shipment guidance for the full fiscal year |
What Dell’s later FY2027 outlook tells us
Dell’s FY2026 results release later provided an outlook of roughly $50 billion in AI-optimized server revenue for FY2027. That is a forecast for a different fiscal year and a revenue measure, not the FY2026 shipment target. It cannot establish whether Dell ultimately met or missed its FY2026 shipment guidance. The reviewed release does not disclose the realized FY2026 AI-server shipment total. Dell’s FY2026 results release
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How to read the figures
- Guidance: management’s forward-looking estimate, such as Dell’s $15 billion and later $20 billion FY2026 AI-server shipment outlook.
- Shipments: products shipped during a period; shipment guidance is not automatically equivalent to recognized revenue.
- Revenue: the amount Dell reports from sales under its accounting practices; the FY2027 $50 billion outlook is an AI-optimized server revenue estimate.
- Backlog: orders in the pipeline that have not necessarily shipped.
- AI solutions: broader wording than AI-server shipments, as illustrated by Dell’s $10 billion first-half FY2026 figure.
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