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Croatia’s September 2026 flash estimate put annual national consumer-price inflation at 4.7%, not 4.6%. The 4.6% figure is the European Commission’s forecast for Croatia’s average inflation over the full year 2026. September’s separate harmonised EU measure, HICP, was 4.3% year over year. The available official sources do not establish that September’s result was in line with a September-specific forecast.
What Croatia’s September inflation figures show
On 2 October 2026, the Croatian Bureau of Statistics (CBS) published preliminary figures for September. The national Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 4.7% higher than in September 2025 and 0.9% higher than in August 2026. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) was up 4.3% year over year and unchanged month over month. These are flash estimates, not final figures. CBS September 2026 flash estimate.
The two time comparisons answer different questions: year-over-year inflation compares prices with the same month a year earlier; month-over-month inflation compares them with the previous month. CBS explains: “The annual consumer price index measures the changes in prices in the current month compared to the same month of the previous year, while the monthly index measures the changes in prices in the current month compared to the previous month.”
Why the headline’s 4.6% needs a different label
The European Commission’s Spring 2026 forecast, published on 21 May, put Croatia’s annual inflation at 4.6% for calendar year 2026. It forecast 4.4% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2027. Those are full-year forecast figures, not the observed September CPI or HICP rates. European Commission economic forecast for Croatia.
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The Commission expected inflation to increase in 2026 as energy inflation accelerated amid the conflict in the Middle East. It also cited energy-cost pass-through to services, continuing wage pressure and fuel costs feeding through food supply chains. A forecast for the annual average cannot by itself show whether a particular month’s result met market expectations. The official sources cited here do not establish a September-specific consensus, so the September release should not be described as “in line with forecasts.”
CPI and HICP: which measure is which?
CPI is Croatia’s national measure of price changes, based on private-household consumption. HICP follows a harmonised European methodology designed to make inflation comparable across countries. Both use the same representative basket, but their population coverage differs: HICP also includes consumption by institutional households and non-residents in Croatia’s economic territory, which national CPI excludes.
That difference helps explain why the September CPI and HICP rates are not identical. For a view of inflation under Croatia’s national measure, use CPI; for cross-country comparisons, HICP is the relevant harmonised measure. Comparisons should match both the index and time period—for example, HICP year over year against HICP year over year.
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In the September CPI flash estimate, energy had the strongest annual increase, while non-food industrial goods excluding energy were lower than a year earlier. Monthly movements differed from the annual pattern:
| CPI category | Year over year | Month over month |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 20.5% | 2.7% |
| Services | 7.6% | -0.7% |
| Food, beverages and tobacco | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| Non-food industrial goods excluding energy | -1.4% | 2.8% |
These are CBS preliminary CPI category estimates. A negative annual rate for non-food industrial goods excluding energy does not mean prices fell in every product; it describes the movement of that category’s index as a whole. Monthly rates likewise can move differently from annual rates because they compare against different periods.
How Croatia compared with the euro area
Eurostat’s 2 October flash release estimated euro-area HICP inflation at 3.8% year over year and 0.6% month over month for September, up from 3.2% year over year in August. Croatia’s corresponding September HICP flash estimate was 4.3% year over year and 0.0% month over month. This is a like-for-like comparison of harmonised figures, not a comparison of Croatia’s national CPI with euro-area HICP. Eurostat September 2026 flash estimate.
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Eurostat estimated euro-area energy inflation at 18.8% year over year, services at 3.2%, food, alcohol and tobacco at 1.4%, and non-energy industrial goods at 1.1%. These are euro-area component rates; they are not Croatia’s category figures.
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When final September figures were due
The CBS flash estimate was based on retail-price data covering about 80%–90% of the data received and processed by the end of September. The bureau said later-processed data would be incorporated into the final release, scheduled for 15 October 2026. Eurostat scheduled full September HICP data for 16 October 2026. Until those releases, the figures above should be treated as preliminary.
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