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One modeled space-based solar design could displace up to 80% of Europe’s wind-and-solar capacity in a fully decarbonized 2050 grid scenario. That is not a prediction that orbital solar will supply 80% of Europe’s renewable electricity: the result depends on forecast costs and a design the study describes as having low technology readiness.
What the study’s 80% figure means
A study by Che, Liu and He, published in Joule on 17 September 2025, modeled space-based solar power in a high-resolution European capacity-expansion and dispatch model for a fully decarbonized electricity system in 2050. Its headline result is that the modeled heliostat design could displace up to 80% of wind-and-solar capacity under the study’s assumptions. Read the study summary.
Capacity is the amount of power generating equipment available, not the electricity it produces over a year. So the figure does not mean space-based solar would provide 80% of all European renewable electricity, nor does it establish that deployment will happen. It is an outcome in one modeled future grid scenario.
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How space-based solar power would work
Space-based solar power (SBSP) is a proposed utility-scale system, not a consumer solar-panel product. Collectors in orbit gather sunlight and transmit energy to receiving stations on Earth. Those stations convert it into electricity for the grid or for storage in batteries. NASA’s description of the SBSP lifecycle outlines the same basic chain.
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Because orbital collectors would be less affected by clouds and the day-night cycle than ground-based solar, the concept could provide more continuous power. It would also require large infrastructure in orbit and receiving stations on the ground.
The two designs the study compared
| Design | Technology readiness | Power delivery | Modeled result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heliostat | Low | Near-baseload | Could displace up to 80% of wind-and-solar capacity in the modeled scenario; associated with lower system costs and battery use. |
| Planar | Higher than the heliostat design | Partially intermittent | Uneconomical at the forecast costs used in the model. |
The study assessed both designs using NASA’s cost forecast for 2050. The strongest reported benefits belong to the lower-readiness heliostat option; the more ready planar option did not make economic sense at those forecast costs.
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What the model says Europe might save
For the heliostat scenario, the study summary reports a modeled 7%–15% reduction in total system costs and a reduction in battery use of more than 70%. These are conditional model outputs, not measured savings or demonstrated operating performance. Hydrogen remains important in the scenario for balancing seasonal changes in energy supply. The study summary reports these results.
King’s College London’s announcement of the study put estimated annual system savings at €35.9 billion, counting generation, storage and network infrastructure costs. This is the university’s reported estimate for the modeled system, not money already saved or a guaranteed future saving. King’s College London’s announcement also describes the concept and its limits.
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Why the cost question is still open
A separate NASA lifecycle assessment considered representative 2 GW utility-scale SBSP designs presumed to begin operating in 2050. Under its baseline assumptions, it estimated lifecycle electricity costs 12–80 times higher than terrestrial alternatives. NASA said SBSP might become competitive with a favorable combination of launch and manufacturing improvements beyond those in the baseline. NASA’s lifecycle assessment has a different scope from the European grid-model study, so its estimate is not a like-for-like reanalysis of that study.
Taken together, the studies show why the projected grid benefits should not be confused with proof of commercial feasibility. The European model finds potential system value under its cost assumptions; NASA’s assessment identifies a substantial cost hurdle under its own baseline. The available summaries do not establish that the required technology, orbital infrastructure or costs will be achievable by 2050.
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