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A global vegetation model projects that grasslands with strongly reduced plant diversity could absorb around 15% less CO₂ through photosynthesis by 2050 than grasslands where diversity is maintained. This is a comparison between modeled scenarios—not evidence that global grassland uptake has already fallen by that amount.
What does the 15% projection mean?
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) reported the figure on 8 October 2026, summarizing a study by researchers from PIK and Kiel University. The modeled comparison contrasts grasslands with strongly reduced plant diversity against grasslands where diversity is maintained. The researchers considered warming scenarios below 2°C and around 4°C and assumed an extreme loss of diversity to examine potential consequences.
For the below-2°C warming scenario, PIK reports a difference of around 11 billion tonnes of CO₂ uptake per year in 2050 between the two diversity scenarios. The institute also summarizes the overall projected difference as around 15% less global grassland CO₂ uptake. These are model results, not measurements of a decline already observed.
Why might plant diversity affect carbon uptake?
In the researchers’ account, climate change can make conditions less favorable for plants that currently dominate pastures and meadows. A more diverse grassland may contain other plants better able to cope with those impacts; if they become more prominent, they could help sustain productivity. That is a potential benefit described by the study, not a guarantee that every diverse grassland will respond the same way.
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The study builds on local experiments linking plant diversity with grassland productivity, then uses a global vegetation model to assess consequences for CO₂ uptake and soil carbon storage under climate change. PIK also reports that reduced diversity could mean less forage for grazing animals and lower soil carbon stocks; the release does not quantify those effects separately.
Will every region lose the same amount?
No. PIK says the modeled outcomes vary by region. Some particularly affected areas—including many tropical and subtropical regions—could see up to 50% less CO₂ uptake in the reduced-diversity scenario. Elsewhere, remaining plant types may compensate for lost types, and productivity could potentially increase. The global figure should not be treated as a forecast for a particular country, farm, or year.
How certain is the projection?
The 15% figure is uncertain. PIK cautions that the model simplifies plant traits and interactions, which limits confidence in the exact magnitude. The release does not establish a precise real-world outcome, and its global scenario comparison should be read as an estimate of potential consequences under the modeled assumptions.
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsThe study is S. B. Wirth, C. Müller, F. Taube, J. Heinke, B. Tietjen, and S. Rolinski, “Global grassland productivity and carbon storage benefit from functional diversity under climate change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2026), DOI 10.1073/pnas.2528067123. The findings and caveats summarized here are from PIK’s 8 October 2026 release.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What management implication do the researchers draw?
Co-author Friedhelm Taube of Kiel University recommends practices that preserve existing diversity over the long term and prevent overgrazing. This is a broad recommendation from the researchers; the release does not identify a particular intervention or quantify how much any one practice would change CO₂ uptake.
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