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A 2026 scenario analysis says an electrified Canadian economy could produce $3.1 trillion in additional economic output cumulatively from 2026 through 2050 and support about 1.6 million more jobs in 2050 than a business-as-usual path. Those are modelled differences between two futures, not guaranteed gains—and the $3.1 trillion is not annual GDP in 2050.
What the report says the figures mean
The September 29, 2026 report Powering Canada’s Growth, published by New Economy Canada and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, presents an economic scenario analysis conducted by Open Insights, a consortium led by University of Victoria researchers. Its results compare an electrified-economy scenario with a business-as-usual scenario based on current policies and measures. The report describes the headline amount as additional economic output; it is expressed in real 2022 Canadian dollars and accumulated over 2026–2050. The report page sets out the headline results.
- $3.1 trillion: cumulative additional output across the 2026–2050 period, relative to business as usual—not $3.1 trillion of extra output every year or in 2050 alone.
- 1,606,250 jobs: the modelled difference between scenarios in 2050, rounded to about 1.6 million. It is not a count of jobs guaranteed to be created each year.
- About 975,000 jobs: the report’s average additional employment across the modelled years from 2026 through 2050, a different measure from the 2050 endpoint.
- $201.9 billion: additional output in 2050 alone, according to the report’s annual model outputs.
The report also states that each $1 invested in the power sector is associated in its modelling with $5 in economic benefits. That is a modelled benefit-to-investment result, not a guaranteed commercial return.
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The scenario is about more than building power plants and transmission. It assumes electricity replaces more direct use of fossil fuels in transportation, buildings and industrial processes. That shift makes electricity demand substantially higher than in the report’s business-as-usual case.
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| Measure | Business as usual | Electrified economy |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity demand in 2050 | 973 TWh | 1,316 TWh |
| Change in electricity demand from the starting point | Up 50% | Up 102% |
| Electricity’s share of total energy use in 2050 | 23.2% | 34.8% |
For context, electricity represents 18.2% of total energy use at the starting point used in the report. The demand figures are scenario outputs, not a forecast that those exact levels will occur.
How the modelling was built—and what it leaves uncertain
Open Insights used energy inputs from the Canada Energy Regulator’s Canada’s Energy Future 2026 scenarios and ran them through MacroABM-CA, an agent-based macroeconomic model covering all ten Canadian provinces. The business-as-usual case draws on the CER’s Current Measures scenario; the electrified-economy case draws on its Canada net-zero scenario, with adjustments described in the report’s methodology and assumptions. The underlying CER scenarios use a November 2025 policy cutoff. The report team says it adjusted policy and project inputs to reflect the energy landscape as of July 2026.
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Workforce and financing are enabling conditions
The full economic gains depend on the workforce growing and firms being able to secure capital more quickly. The methodology says that if labour and financing are inadequate, workers and investment will be pulled toward grid expansion, limiting growth in other sectors. The large headline result therefore depends not only on electricity demand, but also on whether people, projects and funding can be mobilized.
Electricity demand could differ from the model
The CER scenarios include an additional 3.5 GW of data-centre demand by 2050 in both cases. The methodology notes that this is materially below other estimates and below demand from data-centre projects already proposed. If actual data-centre demand is higher, electricity needs could exceed even the electrified scenario’s projected doubling.
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- Vast Network: Wherever you go, ChargePoint’s network includes 274k+ stations across North America and Europe and 565k+ roaming partner stations
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Supply chains and exports are not fully captured
The CER scenarios do not provide a detailed supply-chain narrative, so the economic model allocates supply-chain effects using historical input-output shares. If Canada builds new clean-technology supply chains and project corridors, manufacturing and trade could grow more than the model indicates.
The model also assumes no major expansion or contraction in export markets. Its projected gains come primarily from investment, jobs, rising household incomes and increased spending within Canada. Successful export diversification could add growth beyond the results. International commodity demand is not independently set by the model, apart from oil and gas assumptions aligned with CER scenarios; it assumes excess production can be sold internationally.
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Which sectors gain or lose?
Sector results use two different measures: cumulative additional output over 2026–2050 and the employment difference in 2050. A sector can post rapid relative growth without producing the largest absolute gain. These are aggregate Canadian results and do not show how benefits or job losses are distributed among workers, communities or provinces.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Services | +$1.2 trillion | +866,000 | +3.8% |
| Construction | +$458 billion | +203,000 | +8.0% |
| Industry and manufacturing | +$486 billion | +247,000 | +6.8% |
| Power (electricity, gas and steam) | +$246 billion | +100,000 | +17.4% |
| Property and real estate | +$444 billion | About +20,000 | +4.8% |
| Fossil-fuel energy | −$381 billion | −40,000 | −6.4% |
Power shows the largest percentage increase in this table, while services have the largest absolute output and employment gains. The power sector’s 2050 employment is modelled to be 50.0% above business as usual. Fossil-fuel energy is the listed sector with lower output and employment than the baseline.
What the report recommends
New Economy Canada and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce argue that expanding electricity supply alone will not deliver the scenario’s full economic potential. Their recommendations focus on sustaining political commitment and public investment across jurisdictions, mobilizing public and private capital, coordinating workforce development, and strengthening domestic supply chains. The report page attributes this statement from Prime Minister Mark Carney, made at the May 2026 National Electricity Strategy announcement: “The path to affordability is electrification; the path to competitiveness is electrification; the path to net zero is electrification.”
The central question is therefore not only whether Canada can build more electricity infrastructure. The model’s larger gains depend on whether electrification reaches end uses, and whether labour, financing and domestic capacity keep pace.
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