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About $875 billion in U.S. commercial mortgage debt was scheduled to mature in 2026, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). That is a large refinancing challenge, but a maturity date is not a prediction that a loan will default: borrowers may refinance, contribute cash, negotiate a workout, sell the property, or—if no workable solution is reached—default.
How much commercial real estate debt is due in 2026?
The MBA’s February 9, 2026 survey put the scheduled 2026 maturities at $875 billion, equal to 17% of the $5.0 trillion in commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors. The reported balances are unpaid principal as of December 31, 2025; because many loans continue to amortize, the actual payoff balance at maturity will generally be lower.
The 2026 total is substantial, but it is not the largest year in this MBA series: $957 billion was scheduled to mature in 2025. The 2026 amount is 9% lower than that, while another $652 billion is scheduled for 2027. These are scheduled balances, not estimates of losses or of how much debt will fail to refinance.
| Scheduled maturity year | Amount | What the figure represents |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $957 billion | MBA scheduled maturity balance |
| 2026 | $875 billion | MBA scheduled maturity balance; 17% of $5.0 trillion outstanding |
| 2027 | $652 billion | MBA scheduled maturity balance |
Source for all rows: Mortgage Bankers Association, February 9, 2026; balances are unpaid principal as of December 31, 2025. The MBA release does not forecast how many of these loans will default or fail to refinance.
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Why can’t some landlords refinance?
A commercial mortgage often has a shorter term than the useful life of the building and requires a large balloon payment when it matures. The borrower must replace the loan or otherwise repay that balance. A new lender assesses the property and borrower under current conditions, rather than simply rolling over the old loan on its original terms.
The amount of replacement debt a property can support depends on factors such as its current income, occupancy, operating costs, updated value, existing amortization and the lender’s underwriting. If the new loan’s supportable proceeds fall short of the old loan’s payoff, the borrower has a financing gap. Elevated interest rates can also make debt service harder to cover, even when a building continues to generate rent.
The Federal Reserve’s Spring 2025 Financial Stability Report described borrowers who had not secured refinancing amid tight lending standards, lower property valuations and interest rates above those prevailing when much of the debt was originated. That was a warning about refinancing risk at the time—not a count of borrowers still unable to refinance in 2026.
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Which property types face the biggest refinancing wall?
The MBA’s figures below measure the share of each property type’s mortgage balance scheduled to mature in 2026. They do not show the share of all 2026 maturities, the total dollars due for each property type, or the likelihood that a loan will default.
| Property type | Share of that type’s mortgage balance scheduled to mature in 2026 |
|---|---|
| Hotel/motel | 30% |
| Industrial | 23% |
| Office | 17% |
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, February 9, 2026. The different percentages indicate differing maturity concentrations; they are not a ranking of expected credit losses.
Office faces particular operating pressure
The FDIC’s 2026 Risk Review reported that office vacancy reached 14.0% at year-end 2025—the highest among the four major property types it discussed and just 4 basis points above the 2024 level. High vacancy can weigh on rent and property income while owners still face operating expenses, complicating a refinance. That does not mean every office property has the same occupancy, cash flow or loan problem.
Property conditions are not uniformly worsening
The FDIC characterized commercial real estate as soft, particularly office, but stabilizing in 2025. It reported that property values edged up and transaction volumes increased, while net operating income (NOI) growth slowed. Aggregate bank CRE delinquency and charge-off ratios remained low, with conditions varying across bank groups. Those measures describe a mixed market, not a guarantee that individual borrowers can refinance.
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How does the lender or loan holder affect the risk?
The maturity pipeline is spread across different types of holders, whose funding structures and loan arrangements can differ. The MBA reported the following 2026 balances and shares within each holder category:
| Holder category | Balance scheduled to mature in 2026 | Share of that category’s balances |
|---|---|---|
| Depository-serviced mortgages | $396 billion | 21% |
| CMBS, CLO or other ABS | $200 billion | 25% |
| Credit companies, warehouse facilities or other lenders | $163 billion | 29% |
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, February 9, 2026. Each percentage uses the balances in its listed holder category as the denominator; it is not that category’s share of the $875 billion total.
Bank lending conditions do not support a blanket claim that commercial credit is simply shut off. In its April 2026 survey covering the first quarter, the Federal Reserve reported basically unchanged CRE lending standards and weaker or basically unchanged demand. Banks also reported selected changes in terms—including higher maximum loan sizes, narrower spreads over their cost of funds and longer interest-only periods—with changes varying by loan category. These survey findings describe reported bank lending, not every lender or the terms available to every borrower.
Does the CRE maturity wall mean a wave of defaults?
No. A scheduled maturity identifies when a loan is due; it does not establish that the borrower cannot repay or refinance it. The MBA’s release does not estimate what share of 2026 maturities will fail to refinance, default or enter foreclosure, and the official material cited here does not provide one reliable aggregate forecast for those outcomes. The $875 billion figure therefore should not be treated as a projected loss total.
Some loans may be refinanced on terms the borrower and lender can support. Others may require borrower cash, an asset sale, or a negotiated accommodation. A refinance or extension can buy time, but whether it resolves the underlying risk depends on the property’s income, collateral and specific loan terms.
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What happens when a commercial mortgage matures?
The borrower and lender have to address the amount due under the loan documents. Depending on the property and financing available, possible paths include:
- Refinance: Replace the maturing loan with new financing whose proceeds and terms fit the property and borrower.
- Refinance with added equity or paydown: Bring cash to closing if the replacement loan does not cover the full payoff.
- Accommodation or workout: Negotiate an adjustment with the existing lender. Federal Reserve guidance recognizes prudent CRE accommodations and workouts; an extension alone does not establish that a loan is either healthy or a hidden default.
- Sale: Sell the property and use the proceeds to repay the debt, subject to the sale price and loan obligations.
- Default: If the borrower does not meet the obligation and no agreement is reached, the loan may default, with subsequent outcomes governed by the loan documents and applicable law.
The Federal Reserve has warned that refinancing difficulty could create pressure for forced sales and affect property prices. That is a conditional risk, not evidence that forced sales have occurred at scale in 2026. The practical outcome is loan-specific: a maturity is a decision point, not a predetermined ending.
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