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Novaspace projects that commercial satellite communications services for defense and security will generate more than $22.6 billion in revenue by 2035. The September 2026 forecast points chiefly to non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) services, while projecting lower geostationary orbit (GEO) service revenue even as demand for GEO capacity rises. These are Novaspace forecasts, not observed results or independently validated market totals.
What does the $22.6 billion forecast measure?
In its September 2026 public release for Satellite Communications for Defense and Security, 2nd Edition, Novaspace projects more than $22.6 billion in commercial satellite-service revenue for defense and security by 2035. The figure refers to service revenues, not government spending across all defense communications, satellite manufacturing, or the quantity of satellite capacity demanded. Novaspace’s release does not provide the detailed model assumptions or scenarios behind the projection.
Novaspace separately projects global defense satellite communications (SATCOM) demand to exceed 7.5 terabits per second (Tbps) by 2035. That is a capacity-demand measure, not a revenue figure. The two forecasts describe related but distinct aspects of the market and should not be substituted for one another.
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NGSO services account for most of the projected revenue
Novaspace forecasts $21.3 billion in NGSO service revenue by 2035 and gives that segment a 34% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). NGSO refers to satellites in non-geostationary orbits, including low Earth orbit (LEO) and medium Earth orbit (MEO). The release does not spell out the calculation period or detailed assumptions behind the CAGR, so it should be treated as the publisher’s forecast metric, not a measured historical growth rate.
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GEO revenue and GEO capacity demand move in different directions
Novaspace projects GEO service revenue to fall from $2.3 billion in 2025 to $1.3 billion in 2035. At the same time, it expects GEO capacity demand to triple. The forecast therefore does not say GEO is going away: it anticipates less revenue from GEO services alongside greater demand for GEO capacity. Revenue and capacity are different measures, and the release does not provide further detail explaining the projected divergence.
Which countries does the forecast identify as largest markets?
Through 2035, Novaspace projects that the United States will account for more than 50% of global defense SATCOM demand and 48% of revenue. It assigns China around 30% of both demand and revenue. These are regional shares in Novaspace’s forecast, not reported outcomes or government budget shares.
Why are defense buyers using commercial SATCOM?
Recent procurement examples show several ways public-sector buyers are arranging access to commercial satellite services. They illustrate procurement activity and integration choices; none is evidence of the total market’s size or proof that the $22.6 billion forecast will be reached.
| Buyer and geography | Procurement route and service | What the announcement establishes |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. military branches | SES announced a five-year blanket purchase agreement on July 7, 2026. | SES said its SES Space & Defense subsidiary would make Ku-band services easier for U.S. military branches to purchase, with multi-operator network integration and access to its multi-orbit fleet. This is a provider announcement about a procurement vehicle, not total market spending. SES announcement. |
| U.S. Marine Corps | Viasat announced a commercial SATCOM services contract for its Inmarsat Government subsidiary on September 23, 2026. | Viasat described MECS2 as a managed, multi-provider, multi-orbit solution that includes network and security operations support. Viasat announcement. |
| U.S. Joint Force | A task order under a proliferated LEO commercial SATCOM program. | A SAM.gov notice updated September 18, 2026 describes OneWeb services and control capacity. A task order is a specific procurement, not a market-wide revenue measure. SAM.gov notice. |
| French armed forces | The Centaure contract, announced by France’s Directorate General of Armaments in June 2026. | The announcement says Eutelsat OneWeb is being integrated with armed forces satellite communications alongside Syracuse IV capabilities. French Directorate General of Armaments announcement. |
These arrangements differ in buyer, procurement route, orbit mix and whether the service is described as capacity access or managed support. They are useful evidence that defense organizations procure commercial services, but the cited announcements do not provide a like-for-like performance comparison.
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What role does resilience play in the shift?
Novaspace Senior Manager Santiago Perez said, “The growing adoption of distributed satcom architectures is rapidly enhancing military satcom resilience against disruption, jamming, and kinetic attacks.” Perez also described the change as “not simply a shift in satellite capacity demand” but “a fundamental evolution in military communications.” These are industry comments attributed to Perez, not independently established technical findings.
There is also a government oversight perspective. The U.S. Government Accountability Office describes the Department of Defense approach as combining existing and planned government systems with commercial options in a department-wide SATCOM enterprise. GAO identifies alternate pathways as a possible resilience benefit and calls for regular reporting on implementation progress. GAO’s report provides context about the approach, rather than validation of Novaspace’s revenue forecast.
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How much confidence should readers place in the forecast?
The figures are projections published by Novaspace in September 2026. Its public release says the underlying report segments analysis by region, military force, orbit and frequency band, and profiles leading commercial satellite systems. It does not disclose detailed modeling methodology or scenario assumptions. Readers can use the numbers to understand Novaspace’s market outlook, but the public material is not enough to independently reproduce or validate the forecast.
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- Treat the $22.6 billion figure as projected commercial defense and security satellite-service revenue—not total defense SATCOM spending.
- Keep the separate 7.5 Tbps projection labeled as capacity demand.
- Read the procurement examples as evidence of commercial-service use, not proof of forecast revenue.
- Interpret the projected GEO revenue decline alongside, rather than instead of, Novaspace’s forecast for rising GEO capacity demand.
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