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CME Group’s October 2026 market update reports that its Agriculture Index fell 2.66% in September, while remaining up 13.07% year to date through the report period. The update describes September trading—not the index’s performance in October through October 9.
What happened to the CME Group Agriculture Index in September 2026?
The index declined 2.66% for September. CME Group reported a monthly high of 95.25 and a low of 91.62. Despite the pullback, the index was up 13.07% year to date; its year-to-date high was 95.25 and low was 81.03. These are index figures reported by CME Group in its October 2026 update, not returns for a single commodity.
CME attributed the monthly correction mainly to weakness in major grain and oilseed benchmarks, including selling pressure late in September. The year-to-date gain and monthly loss therefore describe different periods, not conflicting results.
Which commodities rose or fell the most?
September’s component returns varied considerably. The strongest reported gains were in oats, nonfat dry milk, and feeder cattle; Chicago and Kansas City wheat were the weakest. All figures below are September 2026 returns published by CME Group.
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| Commodity or component | September change |
|---|---|
| Oats | +12.27% |
| Nonfat Dry Milk | +10.38% |
| Feeder Cattle | +7.35% |
| Chicago Wheat | -12.69% |
| KC Wheat | -12.53% |
| Corn | -6.88% |
| Lean Hogs | -6.98% |
| Soybean Oil | -4.29% |
| Lumber | -4.00% |
| Soybean Meal | +3.58% |
| Live Cattle | +3.53% |
| Soybeans | +0.39% |
What drove the September moves?
Grains and oilseeds
CME said weakness in grains and oilseeds led the index’s decline. In its account, corn fell sharply late in September after the USDA NASS Quarterly Grain Stocks report. CME reported that stocks were 2.095 billion bushels, versus an average trade expectation of 1.924 billion, and 35% above the year-earlier figure.
CME also linked declines in Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat to stock and trade concerns, including weaker export commitments and higher projected global ending stocks in USDA reports. Returns were mixed elsewhere: soybeans edged up 0.39% and soybean meal gained 3.58%, while soybean oil fell 4.29%.
Livestock
Feeder cattle rose 7.35% and live cattle gained 3.53%, while lean hogs fell 6.98%. CME said cattle futures recovered as supply fundamentals became more influential. Its commentary cited September cattle-on-feed placements of 1.62 million head, 9% below the year-earlier level.
Dairy and lumber
Dairy performance was split: nonfat dry milk rose 10.38% and Class IV Milk gained 4.69%, while Class III Milk, butter, and cheese declined. CME associated the gains with tighter nonfat dry milk availability and demand, and described weaker cheese demand and increased butter production as pressures on the weaker dairy components.
Lumber fell 4.00%. CME’s commentary pointed to sufficient wholesale supply, seasonal slowing in construction, and higher mortgage rates.
What the Agriculture Index measures
The CME Group Agriculture Index is a volume-weighted benchmark built from rolling futures listed on CME and CBOT. It covers five sectors: grains, oilseeds, livestock, dairy, and lumber. It is not a basket of spot prices or a measure of one commodity. CME Group’s index guide explains its construction.
CME selects components and sets weights using average daily dollar volume over an annual assessment window, subject to liquidity thresholds and limits on concentration by asset and product group. Annual target weights are implemented through unit-based rebalancing. At the end of the 2026 rebalance, the largest component weights were:
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| Component | 2026 index weight |
|---|---|
| Soybean | 15.32% |
| Soybean Oil | 11.53% |
| Corn | 11.44% |
| Soybean Meal | 11.44% |
| Live Cattle | 9.65% |
| Feeder Cattle | 8.55% |
| Chicago SRW Wheat | 8.54% |
Those weights help explain why component moves do not contribute equally to the index. A large change in one commodity does not, by itself, determine the overall result; the other components and their weights also matter.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret the report—and compare the index
Each component is a futures exposure, and contracts roll on schedules tailored to the product’s listed contract months. CME’s guide says the annual rebalance begins on the sixth business day of January and runs over four or five business days, depending on the asset; ordinary contract transitions also have scheduled roll windows.
When comparing this benchmark with another agricultural index, check whether they cover the same sectors and components, how they weight them, when they roll contracts, and whether the published measure reflects futures or spot prices. A difference in any of those choices can produce different returns even when the benchmarks refer to the same broad market.
Does the October update show October performance?
No. CME’s October 2026 report gives September’s results. It does not provide an October-to-date return, so the reported -2.66% should not be read as October performance. CME’s Agriculture Index landing page links to index resources and reports.
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