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Powering data centers at scale comes down to three linked problems: enough generation to match a fast-growing load, grid connections built in time to deliver that power to specific sites, and facility-level equipment that keeps servers running when supply fails. The International Energy Agency’s 2026 update projects global data-center electricity consumption will roughly double, from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030.
What the demand projections say
Two International Energy Agency (IEA) reports give different baseline figures because they start from different years and come from different editions. Read them as successive snapshots, not as conflicting measurements.
| Report | Starting point | 2030 projection | Share of global electricity |
|---|---|---|---|
| IEA Energy and AI (2025), Base Case | 415 TWh in 2024 | About 945 TWh | About 1.5% in 2024; just under 3% in 2030 |
| IEA 2026 update | 485 TWh in 2025 | 950 TWh | Not stated in the 2026 update |
The two 2030 projections are nearly identical, at 945 TWh and 950 TWh. The apparent growth rates differ mainly because the starting years differ. Measured from 2024 in the 2025 report, the projection more than doubles; measured from 2025 in the 2026 update, it roughly doubles.
Why a 3% global share understates the local impact
Under the IEA’s 2025 Base Case, data centers stay around 3% of global electricity demand in 2030. That is a global average. Electricity is drawn where facilities are built, and the IEA stresses that concentrated clusters can create grid connection and capacity problems that the global percentage does not reveal. For a regional grid serving a large cluster, the relevant number is the local load, not the world share.
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Where the electricity comes from
The IEA’s 2025 supply analysis measures the electricity data centers physically consume. That includes onsite generation and grid power drawn according to the mix of each local power system. It is not a tally of the contracts operators sign. The distinction matters when a company claims clean power: a renewable purchase made elsewhere does not change the electricity a facility draws from its local grid.
| Source | Share of data-center electricity today (IEA 2025 analysis) | Role in demand growth to 2030 (IEA 2025 Base Case) |
|---|---|---|
| Renewables | About 27% | Meets nearly half of the increase |
| Natural gas and coal combined | About 56% (gas about 26%, coal about 30%) | Together meet over 40% of the increase |
| Nuclear | About 15% | Not stated |
The four categories sum to roughly 98%; the remaining share is not broken out in the figures cited here. The mix varies substantially by region, so these are global averages that will look different at any given site.
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What the U.S. Department of Energy points to
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) overview, which is focused on the United States and does not state a publication date, identifies solar, land-based wind, battery storage and energy efficiency as among the most rapidly scalable and cost-competitive options for near-term U.S. demand growth. It also names geothermal and nuclear as relevant to clean firm power, meaning low-carbon supply that can run around the clock.
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Five axes for comparing power options
These axes help compare approaches for a specific project:
- Reliability and dispatchability: whether supply is available when the load needs it.
- Grid access and timing: whether the project can connect, and when generation or equipment can be delivered.
- Emissions profile: physical local-grid supply should be separated from contractual procurement claims.
- Flexibility and storage: whether workloads, onsite generation or batteries can manage variability or constraints.
- Geography and scenario: the answer changes by region and under each scenario’s assumptions.
Grid connections are often the bottleneck
A site can have secured generation on paper long before it can receive the power. The IEA’s 2025 report says building transmission lines can take four to eight years in advanced economies. Wait times for critical grid components, such as transformers and cables, had doubled over the three years before that report.
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The IEA puts around 20% of planned data-center projects at risk of delay if grid risks are not addressed.
Two mitigations the IEA highlights
- Location: sites where power and grid capacity are already available avoid the longest waits.
- Flexible loads: using data-center loads, onsite generation and storage more flexibly can help address grid risks.
Keeping the facility running during outages
Generation and grid connections supply the power, but the facility’s own equipment keeps the load running when that supply is interrupted. The IEA names uninterruptible power supply (UPS) batteries and backup generators as the equipment used to maintain power during outages.
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Two cautions apply. The IEA identifies these equipment categories, not product specifications. Capacity, runtime and transfer requirements depend on the facility’s load and reliability targets, and should be set by the engineers designing the site. A UPS built for a home office or desktop is not a substitute for data-center-grade equipment.
Reading the forecasts with the right caveats
Every figure above is a scenario output, not a guarantee. Four factors move the projected range:
- How quickly AI adoption grows.
- How much efficiency improves per unit of computing.
- How fast grid infrastructure is built out.
- Whether bottlenecks in the energy sector ease or persist.
The IEA’s 2025 executive summary frames the stakes this way:
“Affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity supply will be a crucial determinant of AI development, and countries that can deliver the energy needed at speed and scale will be best placed to benefit.”
This is the agency’s own statement; no individual speaker is named.
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