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Did Bitcoin ETF investors keep buying after the jobs report? For the first two U.S. trading sessions of October 2026, yes: reported U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows totaled $134.4 million, including $31.7 million on the October 2 payroll-release day. That is evidence of buying over a short window, not proof the trend persisted or that ETF flows caused Bitcoin’s price recovery.
What the payroll report said
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September 2026 Employment Situation, published October 2, reported that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000. That figure comes from the establishment survey, which measures employment, hours, and earnings by industry. The separate household survey reported an unemployment rate of 4.2%, measuring labor-force status. BLS September 2026 Employment Situation.
The report also revised the prior two months down: July payroll growth changed from 21,000 to a decline of 10,000, while August growth was revised from 162,000 to 133,000. Together, the July and August estimates were 60,000 lower than previously reported.
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What ETF flows show
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.65 billion in net inflows during September 2026, according to SoSoValue data cited by The Block. The Block described that as the second-largest monthly inflow since October 2025, behind August’s $3.52 billion. The Block’s September ETF-flow report.
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The October window was positive but much shorter. The Block reported $102.7 million in inflows on October 1, and Decrypt reported $31.7 million on October 2, bringing the first two October trading sessions to $134.4 million in net inflows. October 2 was also the day the payroll report was released. Decrypt’s report on October ETF flows and Bitcoin’s price.
| Period | Reported U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows | What the figure establishes |
|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | $2.65 billion (SoSoValue data, as reported by The Block) | A monthly net-flow total |
| October 1–2, 2026 | $134.4 million (Decrypt’s tracker) | Positive net flows across the first two October trading sessions, including payroll-release day |
Can Bitcoin hold $85,000 after payrolls?
Decrypt reported that Bitcoin briefly tested $87,173 on Friday, October 2, then traded around $85,000 on Sunday morning, October 4. These are dated price observations, not a live quote or a guarantee that Bitcoin would remain near that level. The combination of positive ETF flows and a price around $85,000 shows the two observations occurred in the same short period; it does not demonstrate that ETF purchases caused the price move.
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Dominick John, an analyst at Zeus Research, told The Block that ETF inflows suggested institutional demand “has not faded,” pointing to a more sustained recovery. That is his interpretation of the flows, rather than proof of what caused Bitcoin’s price action or what investors will do next. The Block’s report and analyst comments.
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The key distinction is between a brief positive reading and persistent demand. The October 1–2 total answers whether reported net buying continued into the first two sessions of the month: it did. Later daily observations are needed to establish whether buying carried on beyond that window.
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- Positive flows over more sessions would provide evidence that net buying persisted, though they would not show that every investor held ETF shares.
- A price staying near $85,000 would describe market performance, not establish that ETF flows were responsible.
- The payroll figures alone do not establish how jobs, yields, Federal Reserve expectations, short covering, or ETF activity contributed to Bitcoin’s movement.
Net ETF flows are measurements of reported fund activity over a defined period. They are not a direct measure of investor conviction, a causal test of price changes, or a forecast. Newhedge documents issuer-level flow series and a methodology version, underscoring that figures should be tied to their provider and measurement period. Newhedge’s Bitcoin ETF flow data and methodology.
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