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There is no substantiated standalone global market-size or forecast figure for hydrogen made specifically by steam methane reforming (SMR) of biogas. The available global figures describe the broader biogas and biomethane sector, not hydrogen output or revenue from this conversion route. Official project records show development of direct-biogas reformers, but project targets and demonstrations do not establish widespread commercial deployment.
What the market figures do—and do not—measure
Biogas-to-hydrogen by SMR sits between two larger industries: biogas and biomethane supply, and hydrogen production. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2025 outlooks provide useful context for feedstock availability and sector momentum. They do not report a market value, hydrogen production total, or forecast specifically for hydrogen made by reforming biogas.
| IEA indicator | Reported figure | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Combined global biogas and biomethane production | Projected to increase 23% between 2025 and 2030 in the IEA Renewables 2025 main case | A forecast for the combined gas sector, not for hydrogen produced from biogas by SMR. |
| Germany’s combined biogas and biomethane production | 329 PJ in 2024, as reported by the IEA in 2025 | A national gas-production indicator; it is not a hydrogen production figure. Germany remains the largest market, while France, Italy and Denmark are among the faster-growing markets. |
| Sustainable biogas potential | 80% is located in emerging market and developing economies, according to the IEA’s 2025 outlook | Potential feedstock supply, not committed production or a measure of hydrogen-market demand. |
| Biomethane potential at or below prevailing wholesale natural-gas prices | Around 45 bcm-equivalent, in the IEA’s 2025 key findings | Potential biomethane supply under the stated cost condition; it is not a valuation or volume forecast for biogas-SMR hydrogen. |
The IEA also reports that industry stakeholders are considering biomethane as a feedstock for low-emissions hydrogen and methanol. That indicates interest in possible uses, not a quantified biogas-to-hydrogen market. A market estimate for all hydrogen, all biogas, or all biomethane cannot be relabelled as an estimate for this specific pathway.
How biogas can be converted to hydrogen
Biogas from anaerobic digestion or landfill gas typically contains methane and carbon dioxide. In a reforming process, methane is the hydrogen feedstock; the carbon dioxide already present in raw biogas is a separate component that the process must accommodate. A project may design a reformer to accept direct biogas, or use biomethane in equipment designed for methane-rich gas. These are different feed and integration choices, not interchangeable descriptions of the same plant.
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In conventional steam reforming, methane reacts with steam to produce a hydrogen-rich gas, which can then undergo water-gas shift to increase hydrogen production. A membrane-enhanced configuration can integrate reaction and hydrogen separation. The EU-funded CARMA-H2 project describes a protonic membrane reformer concept combining steam methane reforming, water-gas shift, hydrogen separation, heat management, carbon-dioxide capture and hydrogen compression.
Technology options and what projects have demonstrated
Published project records show active development, but the stated capacities and performance values below are project specifications or targets—not independently verified commercial results or proof of general availability.
| Project or configuration | What its record describes | Evidence status and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| CARMA-H2, Spain | A protonic membrane reformer using biogas, integrating SMR, water-gas shift, hydrogen separation, heat management, CO2 capture and compression. | The project aims to demonstrate the system at a wastewater treatment plant in Navarra. Its targets are greater than 85% HHV efficiency at the bioPMR level and hydrogen delivery at 30 bar. These are targets, not verified commercial operating results. |
| BIOROBURplus | A direct-biogas fuel processor using an oxidative steam-reforming process. | The Clean Hydrogen Partnership record describes a pre-commercial development with a design target of 50 Nm3/h (107 kg/day) of 99.9% hydrogen for different biogas types. These specifications do not establish market-wide performance or availability. |
| BIOROBUR | An autothermal reforming route. | Project materials describe intended advantages for handling changing biogas composition, coking resistance, heat management and process control. They do not establish that autothermal reforming is superior to steam reforming for every application. |
| BioH2Ref, Germany | Decentralized hydrogen production from biogas through steam reforming. | The RWTH Aachen University project page gives a duration of 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2024 and reports hydrogen-plant efficiency above 60%, compared with 40% for CHP. This is the project page’s comparison in its project context, not a universal efficiency comparison between hydrogen production and CHP plants. |
The European Commission’s CORDIS results summary quotes BIOROBURplus coordinator Debora Fino describing the project as delivering “an advanced direct biogas fuel processor for robust and cost-effective decentralised hydrogen production.” Fino also said regulatory support, including subsidies comparable to support for water electrolysis, was needed. These are the coordinator’s project-perspective statements; they are not independent verification of cost competitiveness.
What determines whether a project is commercially viable
A market opportunity depends on the fit between a particular biogas source, reformer design, hydrogen buyer and site. The reviewed sources do not provide a like-for-like commercial performance comparison, so a project should be assessed against its actual feed and operating requirements rather than a general claim that one reforming architecture is best.
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- Feed gas: Determine whether the plant will accept raw biogas or require upgraded biomethane, and establish the expected range of methane content, contaminants and composition variability.
- Reformer architecture: Compare steam reforming, autothermal reforming and membrane-enhanced concepts in the context of the specific project. Relevant considerations include coking control, heat integration and process control.
- Hydrogen product: Specify required purity, pressure and recovery, as well as the compression and delivery arrangements needed by the offtaker.
- Carbon management: Establish whether carbon dioxide is captured, used, stored or released, and define how biogenic CO2 is treated in the project’s emissions accounting.
- Plant integration and scale: Evaluate the reformer’s scale and its integration with the biogas plant, utilities and hydrogen customer.
- Evidence maturity: Separate design specifications and project targets from results of demonstrated operation and from repeatable commercial performance.
Emissions: biogenic feedstock does not settle the carbon claim
Hydrogen made from biogas should not automatically be described as carbon neutral or carbon negative. Biogenic origin alone does not establish a lifecycle result, and the reviewed sources do not provide a route-specific lifecycle emissions factor for hydrogen produced by biogas-SMR. A credible claim needs a stated lifecycle method and project-specific evidence.
The IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review 2024 reports 10–12 kg CO2-equivalent per kg of hydrogen for unabated hydrogen from natural-gas SMR. That figure must not be applied to biogas-derived hydrogen: the feedstock and lifecycle boundaries differ. The IEA also cautions that upstream and midstream emissions need attention alongside capture at the production site.
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Leakage is one material factor. The IEA’s 2025 biogas and biomethane outlook reports evidence that current plants emit methane in a range of 2% to 5.5% of output. This is a sector-wide observed range, not a value that applies to every facility. Feedstock sourcing, methane leakage, process heat, electricity use, and the capture and treatment of biogenic CO2 can all affect a project’s lifecycle result.
Quick Recap
Trends to watch
- Growth in the upstream gas sector: The IEA’s 23% main-case production increase from 2025 to 2030 points to expansion in combined biogas and biomethane supply, but does not forecast how much will be converted to hydrogen.
- Interest in biomethane as a hydrogen feedstock: The IEA identifies this as an option under consideration by industry stakeholders. It does not quantify resulting projects or hydrogen output.
- Direct-biogas process development: CARMA-H2 and BIOROBURplus illustrate engineering work on reformers that can use biogas, including membrane-enhanced and oxidative steam-reforming approaches. Their project records are evidence of development activity, not broad fleet deployment.
- Decentralized production and policy: Project descriptions emphasize production near biogas sources. The BIOROBURplus coordinator’s comments also highlight the role of policy support, but do not establish a universal subsidy requirement or a commercial cost comparison.
- Greater attention to methane management: The IEA’s reported leakage range makes measurement and mitigation relevant to the credibility of emissions claims as the sector grows.
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